March Madness Final Four Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Duke vs. North Carolina
The Duke-North Carolina game Saturday will be historic, regardless of the outcome.
A lopsided win in one direction or the other would certainly be a surprise and might dampen the overwhelming hype, but the storylines alone surrounding this blue-blooded Final Four matchup between No. 2 Duke and No. 8 North Carolina are enough to dub the 258th meeting between these programs historic.
This could be Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final game ever. It will be the last Duke-UNC game with Coach K at the helm. And this is the first time ever these storied teams are meeting in the NCAA tournament. And, of course, a trip to the national championship game is on the line. It’s a chance for Coach K to claim his sixth title and for North Carolina coach Hubert Davis to win it all in his first year.
Matt Ehalt and I made our bets for the game that needs no introduction.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 23-22–1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 19-30–1
Final Four betting previews: Kansas-Villanova | Duke-North Carolina Best Bet | Kansas-Villanova Best Bet | Favorite Bets
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Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
No. 2 Duke (32-6) vs. No. 8 North Carolina (28-9)
Time: 8:49 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: North Carolina +4 (-110) | Duke -4 (-118)
Moneyline: North Carolina (+160) | Duke (-200)
Over/Under: Over 151 (-118) | Under 151 (-110)
Duke’s Path
The Blue Devils’ season of destiny continued this past weekend when they got by a pair of worthy opponents: No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 4 Arkansas.
Pitted against two defensive stalwarts, Duke hung 79 points in both games to stave off upset bids. Future lottery pick Paolo Banchero led his team in scoring in each of the first three tournament games until he had a poor shooting night against the Razorbacks. Fellow freshman A.J. Griffin stepped up to score 18 points and sophomore center Mark Williams posted 12 points and 12 boards and shot 6 for 6.
Duke hasn’t looked particularly dominant in the tournament so far. Still, Coach K’s team is playing clean basketball and has the spread in the last three games. The Blue Devils look ready for UNC, which embarrassed them last time these teams clashed.
North Carolina’s Path
The Tar Heels scored their second 20-plus point win of March Madness on Sunday when they stamped out No. 15 Saint Peter’s Cinderella run. North Carolina was too big for the Peacocks and rolled to a 69-49 win. That followed a gutsy Sweet 16 win against No. 4 UCLA—UNC’s second win in a row as an underdog.
A different player has stepped up for the Tar Heels in each of their tournament wins. In the first round it was Brady Manek, who was on his way to a huge game against No. 1 Baylor in the round of 32 before he was ejected. Then, R.J. Davis stepped in and went for 30 points and lit it up from outside. Caleb Love got his against UCLA, tallying 30 points and drilling six three-pointers. And Armando Bacot put his stamp on UNC’s run with a 20-20 game against Saint Peter’s, his sixth consecutive double-double.
Chris Szagola/AP
Kyle Wood’s Bet: North Carolina +4
Neither game in the rivalry this season was decided by single digits. Duke won the first meeting on the road, 87-67, and North Carolina won the second game, Coach K’s spoiled sendoff, 94-81, in Durham. I’m expecting a more tightly contested game this time around, though. It’s Krzyzewski’s final Duke-UNC game and the first time these teams are meeting in the NCAA Tournament (if you haven’t already heard). This occasion is befitting an instant classic, not a blowout.
UNC found its footing after its loss to Duke—the team is 12-2 since that game. Duke, similarly, has been stellar since that game Feb. 5—the Blue Devils are 13-3.
The advanced metrics favor Duke. Its offense ranks No. 1 on KenPom and the team is seventh overall. Meanwhile, UNC’s offense ranks 18th and the team comes in at No. 16. The Tar Heels have an edge on defense, but only marginally (39th compared to 45th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
North Carolina has the rebounding edge, which could be hugely important in this game. The winner of the rebounding battle won both regular season meetings. Duke is the better shooting team. The Blue Devils have a better shooting percentage from the field and from deep, but UNC has gotten hot in March from outside and has hit 10-plus threes in three of its tournament games.
Duke has the top-end talent to win this game, and I think that they will. But North Carolina has an experienced starting five that has shown it can—at the very least—keep this game close. I think this comes down to free throws and Banchero, Griffin, Wendell Moore Jr. or maybe even Jeremy Roach making a play.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Duke -4
I could not imagine being a fan of either team right now.
Sure, this is the ultimate reward if your team wins. But this could be the lowest of lows for the loser, especially Duke. The Tar Heels ruining Coach K’s final home game and last tournament (en route to a potential title) would be brutal.
I have been thoroughly impressed with North Carolina’s play during this tournament. I didn’t expect the Tar Heels to beat either Baylor or UCLA, but here they are as one of the final four teams. North Carolina has shot 44.1% from the field and 35.4% from three, while limiting opponents to just 36.2% from the field and 26.5% from deep.
Duke, meanwhile, has been a team on a mission since it rallied from that late five-point deficit against Michigan State. It scored at will on Texas Tech’s elite defense, and then had its way with Arkansas to set up this all-North Carolina Final Four.
The two regular-season matchups featured Duke shooting 57.6% and 47.4% from deep in the opening matchup while winning the rebounding battle, 40-24. North Carolina won the second game thanks to a much-better shooting day with the Tar Heels converting 48.5% of their shots, compared to just 40.7% in the first.
North Carolina also won the battle on the boards, 37-34.
This game could come down to the boards again. North Carolina has out-rebounded each team its faced by at least nine in the tournament and by an average of 12.25. Duke has won the rebound battle in three of four games, only falling short against Texas Tech. Still, Duke’s elite offense allowed it to win that game.
North Carolina has had a great run, but its three-point shooting has been shoddy over the last two games (16-53; 30.2%) and Duke seems like it has found its footing on both ends of the court. The Blue Devils’ defense is playing much stingier than it had been.
I’m just having a hard time believing North Carolina is going to win the final Coach K home game in this rivalry and also knock Coach K out of the tournament.
Lay the points here in what should be a great game.
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