NBA Eastern Conference Betting Preview: Bucks Poised to Return to Finals

The Bucks (+240) are the favorites at SI Sportsbook to win the Eastern Conference, while the seventh-seeded Nets have the second-best odds (+333).

The Eastern Conference playoff picture was not decided until the final day of the regular season. The Heat clinched the top seed with a few days to spare, but the rest of the top four teams were jockeying for position until Sunday night.

It says a lot about the depth of the conference that first-place Miami doesn’t even have the best odds to win the East. That honor belongs to the Bucks, the defending NBA champions. The Nets, who just clinched the 7-seed after beating the Cavaliers in the play-in tournament this week, are behind Milwaukee and also ahead of the Heat.

Then, there’s the computer darling Celtics, 76ers and so on.

The postseason officially begins Saturday. Before it gets underway, check in with the top seven teams from the Eastern Conference, which is deep as ever, and see how each team got here and what their odds are.

(The 8-seed is not included in this article because that spot will not be decided until Friday night. The winner of the Hawks-Cavaliers will play the No. 1 Heat.)

Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook

Charles Krupa/AP

No. 1 Miami Heat (53-29)

Record since All-Star break: 15-8
Odds to win conference: +400 (Third-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +900 (Tied fourth-best)
First-round opponent: Hawks/Cavaliers

Injuries, on-court fights and the team’s stars being consistently unavailable for one reason or another would have justified a lackluster Heat season. Instead, Miami finished with the top seed in the East for the first time since 2013. That was despite Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo each missing more than 20 games and Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro both missing at least 15 games. Pat Riley just points to the Heat Culture hashtag and looks ahead to another postseason trip.

Coach Erik Spoelstra got massive contributions from Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin and Omer Yurtseven at various points. All four youngsters stepped up with stars out and can be relied on during a playoff series. Strus even replaced Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup amid a down shooting season for the fourth-year player.

The Heat’s strength is their No. 4 defensive rating and that’s despite Butler and Adebayo, a contender for Defensive Player of the Year, missing so much time. On offense, Miami runs at a slow pace with Lowry at the point. Each possession is worth it, though, given how efficient the team is. The Heat lead the NBA in three-point percentage and rank fifth in free-throw percentage. As a result, they’re third in true shooting percentage and fifth in effective field goal percentage.

The team’s leaders—Spoelstra, Lowry and Butler—are all battle-tested in the postseason and Miami presents significant value as the conference’s top seed with the third-best odds to come out of the East and tied for the fourth-best title odds.

The Heat went on a surprise Finals run as a five seed a few seasons ago with largely the same core intact—they just swapped Goran Dragic for Kyle Lowry, who won a title in Toronto. Miami avoiding Brooklyn in the first round is huge and the Heat having home court throughout the East playoffs (29-12 in the regular season) gives me enough confidence in them to make a run to the conference finals, at least.

2. Boston Celtics (51-31)

Record since All-Star break: 17-5
Odds to win conference: +500 (Fourth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +1100 (Sixth-best)
First-round opponent: Nets—Won season series, 3-1

Boston enters the postseason without its most vital cog to its fearsome defense: Robert Williams III. The fourth-year big man plays a free safety-like position for the Celtics’ defense, the unit that was instrumental in the turnaround from a sub.-500 record on New Year's Day to a top-three finish in the conference. Williams (meniscus) will reportedly be able to return for the second round of the playoffs. The way Ime Udoka’s squad is playing—Jayson Tatum at an All-NBA level, Jaylen Brown scoring at will, Marcus Smart distributing the ball with ease and Al Horford filling in well for Williams—that seems more and more likely with each passing game.

The Celtics have the best defensive rating in the NBA and pair it with a top-10 offensive rating. That offense, of course, begins with Tatum and Brown combining to average better than 50 ppg and goes far beyond the two stars. Smart, Horford, Williams and Derrick White, a competent defender and ball-handler whom the team acquired midseason, all chip in double-digit points.

Boston is a top-five rebounding team and is also proficient at hitting free throws and blocking shots. The Celtics don’t have any glaring weaknesses—they rank around league average at worst in most traditional statistical categories. Their +7.3 point differential is the best mark in the East and second-best in the NBA.

Boston is beloved by many statistical models and has a 31% chance of winning the Finals, per FiveThirtyEight. If those models are even close to accurate, the Celtics are a bargain buy to win the conference and championship.

Unfortunately, Boston’s path brings on Brooklyn and the Bucks and it’s hard to see it getting through both of those challenges before even reaching the conference finals. If it weren’t for Milwaukee, the Celtics would be my pick to come out of the East.

Paul Sancya/AP

3. Milwaukee Bucks (51-31)

Record since All-Star break: 15-7
Odds to win conference: +240 (Best)
Odds to win title: +500 (Second-best)
First-round opponent: Bulls—Won season series, 4-0

The Bucks return to the postseason having recently made the jump to become the favorites to win the East. After that title belonged to Brooklyn for much of the season, the defending champions leapfrogged the Nets.

Milwaukee got its center Brook Lopez back from injury a few weeks ago and Giannis Antetokounmpo wrapped up the best scoring season of his career, which would’ve almost guaranteed him his third MVP award in virtually any other year.

Milwaukee was underrated for much of the season. Jrue Holiday is playing better than he did in 2020-2021, Grayson Allen is having a career year shooting and Bobby Portis carried over his postseason production to the regular season, where he flirted with a double-double nightly while shooting close to 40% from three.

Khris Middleton took a minor step back production-wise, but the leaps other players on the roster took more than make up for those shortcomings.

The offense took another step this year with Antetokounmpo’s continued meteoric rise. The Bucks are third in offensive rating, seventh in true shooting percentage and sixth in effective field goal percentage. They’re also one of the most prolific outside shooting teams. Milwaukee has the fifth-best three-point percentage despite shooting the fifth-most threes in the league. The Bucks are the No. 2 rebounding team in the league with Portis and Antetokounmpo making up a massive frontcourt.

The ship sailed on getting this team as a value bet. That doesn’t necessarily make the Bucks a bad bet to repeat, though. I think the East is theirs for the taking and I’m envisioning a Finals rematch with Phoenix. Whether or not Antetokounmpo is the best player in the world, he showed that he can be last summer. That’s what Milwaukee needs once again to emerge from this field, and I think they get just that.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)

Record since All-Star break: 16-8
Odds to win conference: +600 (Fifth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +1400 (Eighth-best)
First-round opponent: Raptors—Lost season series, 1-3

Philadelphia’s sacrifice of depth for star power at the deadline changed the course of the team’s immediate and long-term future. The jury is out on the Joel Embiid-James Harden arranged marriage, which looked deadly for a few games before Harden’s shooting percentages nosedived and wins became harder to come by in March.

The 76ers are a top-10 team by net rating and their offense (11) ranks slightly ahead of their defense (12). Philadelphia is a phenomenal shooting team—it ranks seventh in three-point percentage and first in free-throw percentage, hallmarks of a Daryl Morey team—but it operates at the 26th-slowest pace in the league. That’s not necessarily a surprise for a team that runs through a center in Embiid and Harden, who’s known to take his time on offense.

It’s not all doom and gloom in Philadelphia. Embiid put together a career season worthy of an MVP nod, and more importantly, he set a career-high for games played and won the scoring title in the process. Harden’s numbers may be worse than hoped since the trade, but Embiid is playing just fine alongside him. Second-year guard Tyrese Maxey also more than doubled his scoring average while shooting a blistering 43% from three. The secondary scorers in Philly are all capable and the team hung on to its best wing defender, Matisse Thybulle, in the Harden-Ben Simmons trade.

The ceiling of what Embiid and Harden can be is enticing but the playoff failures of coach Doc Rivers and Harden loom heavy over this team heading into the postseason. I was bullish on this pairing when the trade first happened, but I don’t love the 76ers’ first-round matchup. Embiid’s greatness and size should get this team to the semifinals, but it’ll take an all-time performance to get beyond there.

Ashley Landis/AP

5. Toronto Raptors (48-34)

Record since All-Star break: 16-9
Odds to win conference: +2500 (Sixth-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +7000 (Tied 13th-best)
First-round opponent: 76ers—Won season series, 3-1

The Raptors had their worst season in nearly a decade last year. Then, they scooped up Scottie Barnes with a top-five pick, resumed playing games in Canada and now look like an upset threat. Coach Nick Nurse certainly knows which five guys he’s rolling with in the playoffs. Three Toronto players are top 10 in the league in minutes played and Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet are first and second.

Nurse’s most used lineup of Siakam, Van Vleet, Barnes, Gary Trent Jr. and OG Anunoby does not have a true center—Siakam is the tallest player at 6’8”. At a time when most of the league is going big, Nurse is throwing out two guards and three forwards who can all shoot and can all handle the ball. Part of Toronto’s leap this season has been due to defensive improvement, going from 16th in defensive rating to ninth.

Toronto takes great care of the ball and forces plenty of turnovers on the other end of the floor. The Raptors are second in points off turnovers and third in fast-break points. Conversely, their opponents score the fewest points off their rare turnovers.

Toronto’s long odds make plenty of sense given their young squad that has one combined All-Star nod. Nurse is a respected coach who already has a title to his name and the Raptors have the advantage of playing north of the border where vaccine mandates continue that will reportedly affect the 76ers in their upcoming series.

Toronto could certainly win a round, but anything beyond that might be more than what the current iteration of this team is built for.

6. Chicago Bulls (45-36)

Record since All-Star break: 8-15
Odds to win conference: +3500 (Seventh-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +10000 (15th-best)
First-Round Opponent: Bucks—Lost season series, 0-4

The Bulls may be the most vulnerable Eastern Conference team heading into the playoffs. Chicago finished 22-27 against opponents with records .500 or better and just one win against a top-three seed in either conference. The team was 17 games over .500 heading into the All-Star break and collapsed down the stretch despite the return of Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso, both of whom bolstered a bad defense.

Chicago ranks 13th in the league in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. The team also has a negative point differential for the year, which makes it the only top-six team in either conference that was outscored this season.

All four play-in teams in the East had positive point differentials.

Despite DeMar DeRozan averaging a career-best 27.9 ppg and Zach Lavine adding 24.4, the offense ranks outside the top 10 in points per game. The Bulls shoot threes at a high percentage but they attempt the fewest in the league. Chicago is also at a serious disadvantage on the glass, ranking third-to-last in rebounds per game.

The precipitous collapse in the second half of the season has the Bulls firmly being counted out. They have long odds to even get out of the first round.

Seth Wenig/AP

7. Brooklyn Nets (44-38)

Record since All-Star break: 13-10
Odds to win conference: +333 (Second-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +700 (Third-best)
First-round opponent: Celtics—Lost season series, 1-3

Brooklyn’s fate is beholden to its superstars perhaps more than any other team. That was on full display all season as Kyrie Irving missed games due to vaccination policies and Kevin Durant was out with injuries. The team suffered as a result, losing 11 straight games at one point. That’s why the Nets had to win a play-in game to earn the 7-seed.

Durant and Irving are also why Brooklyn has the third-best odds to win the title despite the predicament their unavailability put the team in and their status as the seventh seed. The Nets have two of the most unguardable offensive talents on the planet and they’re betting that’s enough to get them through the playoffs.

Brooklyn has the No. 10 offensive rating (No. 7 post-All-Star Break) and No. 20 defensive rating, neither of which are representative of a championship unit.

The rest of the rotation is composed of Bruce Brown, Andre Drummond, Seth Curry, Nic Claxton and spurts of Goran Dragic and Patty Mills to spell Irving. Brooklyn is about a league-average rebounding team thanks to Drummond’s presence on the glass, and ranks top-10 in three-point shooting because of Curry and Mills’ sharpshooting. Stopping teams is the issue for the Nets, not putting up points. 

Brooklyn played a complete game against a shorthanded Cavaliers team in the play-in game Tuesday night and ended up winning by seven. It’s a one-game sample size, but that plus a whole season of poor defense is an indictment of this team’s ability to hold up in a seven-game series against better teams.

You’d hope for better odds for the Nets given their play-in predicament and their spot on the difficult side of the East bracket. Still, betting on Durant is never a bad bet.

Just remember how close this team was to the East Finals a season ago and it added depth in the Harden trade.

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