MLB Friday Best Bets: Cardinals, Tigers, Yankees-O's Under

Yankee bats have been quiet and Camden Yards fences won't help.

The holiday weekend is here, and it’s time to relax with some baseball! If you decide to procrastinate on your taxes, I can’t think of a better way.

So far for the season, we are 8-2 with our MLB picks. Seven of those picks have paid plus money. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling!

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

• Moneyline: New York (-213) | Baltimore (+175)
  
  
• Spread: New York -1.5 (-133) | Baltimore +1.5 (+175)

• Total: 9 -Over (-118) | Under (+100)

Players to watch:

• Trey Mancini is batting .429, slugging .571 in 21 career ABs vs. Jordan Montgomery.

• Aaron Hicks is on a five-game hitting streak, batting .353 so far this season.

The Yankees head to Camden Yards to face the team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball through the first week of the season. Jordan Montgomery is on the bump for the Bronnx Bombers and he owns a 28.9% K rate vs. this Baltimore club that is striking out 30.4% of the time.

Jordan Lyles gets the start for the Orioles, who have a 1-5 record so far this season.

It’s easy to see why the Yankees are favored here, but there isn’t any value in laying $213 to make $100, and I am unwilling to bet the run line since the Yankees are off to a slow offensive start. I’m not sure how much moving the fences will affect the Yankees in Camden Yards yet, but it can’t help the hitters. Instead, it could give Montgomery and Lyles a small bump. I’m taking the under on the game total of 9. The Yankees have averaged 3.43 runs per game while the Orioles have averaged exactly two runs per game so far this year. The Yankees have only exceeded this run total in two of seven played this year, while the Orioles haven’t exceeded it in even one game this year. The under is plus money, and I’ll be taking that bet.

The Pick: UNDER 9 (+100)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

• Moneyline: Cardinals (+130) | Brewers (-154)

• Spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-154) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)

• Total: 8.5 -Over (-110 | Under (-110)

Players to watch:

• Nolan Arenado has three home runs and is batting .313 in 16 career at-bats vs. Freddy Peralta.

• Paul Goldschmidt is batting .429 with two homers and only an 18.8% K rate in 14 at-bats vs. Peralta.

• Lorenzo Cain is batting .316 and slugging .579 in 19 at-bats vs. Miles Mikolas.

I’m going rogue here and picking the Cardinals to win this one outright at +130. I picked the Cardinals to win the division here /betting/2022/04/05/mlb-national-league-pennant-divisions-future-odds and I’m sticking with them.

Peralta walked four batters his last time out, and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is off to a slow start. Milwaukee’s starters have combined for a 4.96 ERA so far to start the season, and I think it will be a few more weeks before they stabilize.The Cardinals are averaging 5.2 runs of offense per game to the Brewers’ 3.29, and though Peralta is the superior pitcher to Mikolas, the Cardinals matchup well with Peralta. As a club, this Cardinals team is batting .274 vs. Peralta while the Brewers are batting .235 vs. Mikolas. All things considered, I think the difference will come down to the hitting, and the Cardinals have the edge there. As you can see, Vegas expects this to be a close game. To take the Cardinals +1.5 pays -154, and to take the Brewers ML pays -154. There’s no value in either of those bets, so I am taking the underdog Cardinals to win at +130.

The Pick: Cardinals (+130)

Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

• Moneyline: Tigers (+105) | Royals (-125)

• Spread: Tigers +1.5 (-188) | Royals -1.5 (+155)

• Total: 8-Over (-110 | Under (-110)

Players to watch:

• Sal Perez is batting .385 and slugging 1.154 with three home runs in 13 at-bats vs. Tarik Skubal.

• Adalberto Mondesi is batting .333 with two homers in nine at-bats vs. Skubal.

• Austin Meadows has recorded a hit in every game played this year, and has four two-hit games. He’s batting .476 so far this season.

The Tigers have been a pleasant surprise to start the season, and I am going to call for one more upset tonight. I think this is another close game. Brad Keller looked far better than Skubal in their first outings of the season, and Sal Perez and Adalberto Mondesi hit Skubal well. The Royals own the lowest K rate in the league, 15.7%, and continue to be pesky hitters. Meanwhile, Brad Keller was sharp in his last outing, striking out six Guardians and allowing no runs, but last season he ended with a 5.26 ERA. I think this could come down to bullpens, and Detroit has the advantage there. I’m leaning toward the under here, and I’m going to take the Tigers at plus money for another underdog win.

The Pick: Tigers +105