UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad

Best bets and analysis as Muhammad looks to avenge loss to Luque.

Last week’s UFC 273 was one for the ages, and as the promotion returns to its home at the Apex in Las Vegas, it rolls out a Fight Night card highlighted by a rematch in the welterweight division with title shot implications. Belal Muhammad was knocked out the last time he stepped into the Octagon with Vicente Luque, but that was five years ago, and he has improved vastly since that bout. “Remember The Name” has gone 10-1 since being finished in 2016, while Luque himself is on a four-fight win streak. The winner of this matchup could find himself one fight away, possibly sooner, from a shot at welterweight gold.

Card: UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2
Date: April 16, 2022 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Prelims 5:30 p.m. ET
Alatengheili (-175) vs Kevin Croom (+145)
Istela Nunes (-225) vs Sam Hughes (+188)
Jordan Leavitt (+120) vs Trey Ogden (-143)
Chris Barnett (+188) vs Martin Buday (-225)
Rafa Garcia (-110) vs Jesse Ronson (-110)
Drakkar Close (-699) vs Brandon Jenkins (+500)
Lina Lansberg (+310) vs Pannie Kianzad (-400)
Devin Clark (-175) vs William Knight (+145)

Main Card 8:30 p.m. ET
Mounir Lazzez (-200) vs Ange Loosa (+165)
Pat Sabatini (-500) vs TJ Laramie (+375)
Mayra Bueno Silva (-500) vs Wu Yanan (+375)
Miguel Baeza (-175) vs Andre Fialho (+145)
Caio Borrahlo (+115) vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (-138)
Vicente Luque (-188) vs Belal Muhammad (+155)

Check the Latest Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook

Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

SI MMA writer Justin Barrasso:
Belal Muhammad is ready for redemption.

Vicente Luque stands in the way of Muhammad’s route to a welterweight title shot. Luque is ranked a spot ahead of him and knocked him out back in their first meeting five years ago. Now Muhammad -- who has entered his prime -- has the chance to put on a clinic against an opponent that once made quick work of him. This is Muhammad’s fight. While he won’t jump Khamzat Chimaev, there is the possibility to jump into the top four with a victory.
Bet: Belal via DEC +250

SI Video Julian Pinto:
In the main event, I have Vicente Luque beating Belal Muhammad. Both fighters have improved since their first meeting at UFC 205. Since then, Luque has vastly improved his striking under Henry Hooft, as the majority of his finishes have come after the two started working together in 2014. All but two of Muhammad’s wins in the UFC have been decisions, and it will be hard to grind out a decision against a durable fighter like Luque. Luque has better striking and he is a BJJ black belt, which will make life tough for Muhammad even if he gets the takedown, as he will find a lot of resistance in Luque’s guard. Luque has more ways to win the fight, and his granite chin should be able to stand what Muhammad throws at him.
BET: Luque via KO +225

SI Video’s Robin Lundberg:
Though it is easy to say throw out the results of the last fight, that is tough to do given Luque knocked Muhammad out. And with Luque's penchant for finishing, I think it may be tough for Muhammad to fight his style knowing first hand how dangerous his opponent can be. I'll take Luque, and would look at the odds for him ending it early.
BET: Luque via KO +225/ Under 3.5 Rds +100

SI Video’s Doug Vazquez
I’m looking at a fight on the prelim card in the lightweight division where a very skilled wrestler in Trey Ogden will be making his UFC debut against Jordan Leavitt. Leavitt, himself a relative newcomer, made it known this week that he is putting his money where his mouth is and has placed a large wager on himself to win. I like the confidence and the slight Octagon experience edge that Leavitt has, and I will also be wagering on The Monkey King. While Ogden is possibly the better grappler here, Leavitt is always looking for the submission and I think when it goes to the mat, he will be able to secure a tap out.
BET: Jordan Leavitt ML (+120); via SUB +350