MLB Friday Best Bets: Rockies, Miguel Cabrera, White Sox

Miggy seeks his 3,000th career hit during tonight's MLB action.

There are 26 games being played tonight across all sports! It's a great time to get in on some action.

We are off to an 11-2 start to the season. Ten of those wins paid plus-money. Let's continue our underdog picks today and see if we can keep it rolling!

Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers

• Moneyline: Tigers (-154) | Rockies (+130)
• Spread: Tigers -1.5 (+140) | Rockies +1.5 (-167)
• Total: 7.5 -Over (-118 | Under (+100)

Players to watch

• Miguel Cabrera is looking for this 3,000th hit tonight.
• Connor Joe continues to bat leadoff and produce. He's batting .400 vs. southpaws so far this season.
• CJ Cron leads the league in home runs with six. He's hitting .400 vs. lefties this year, and last year he hit 3.11 vs. lefties (.269 vs. righties).

I look at this line, and I don't see why there is such a mismatch. Ok, sure. The Tigers are looking for Miggy's 3,000th hit, and there should be great energy in Comerica. They did defeat the Yankees just yesterday. But, the Tigers are 5-7 while the Rockies are 8-4.

The Tigers are scoring an average of three runs per game this season compared to the Rockies' 5.17. Now, I get it. The Rockies play in a mile-high stadium, so that can pad the runs, but I feel like this line also accounts for how bad the Rockies were on the road last year. They are 2-0 away this season.

Detroit will send Tarik Skubal to the mound, and he has been excellent this season. We bet on Skubal on the Tigers last Friday, and they came through. Colorado will send Senzatela to the bump. Senzatela has gotten lucky to have an ERA of 2.16 this year. He walks too many batters, but he's facing a Detroit team that is batting .210 with a 24.4% K rate- and they are still without Javier Baez.

This is likely a low-scoring game, and either team could win this, but I don’t see enough overwhelming reasons for this to be so one-sided. I’m taking the +130 with the Rockies.

BET: Rockies (+130)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros

• Moneyline: Toronto (+145) | Houston (-175)
• Spread: Toronto +1.5 (-145) | Houston -1.5 (+120)
• Total: 8 Under (+100) | Over (-118)

Players to watch

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr is already in the AL MVP conversation. He is batting .304 with five homers and 11 RBI.
• Aledmys Diaz is batting .429 and slugging 1.143 vs. Stripling in eight plate appearances. He will likely take the field tonight in the absence of Jose Altuve. 
• Yordan Alvarez has a 63.6% hard-hit rate, and he's batting .313 vs. righties. He hit two two-run home runs in Verlander's last start.

Justin Verlander has been incredible to start the season for Houston, and tonight he gets the ball at Minute Maid. His ERA is at .69, and he has a 32% K-rate this season. He's coming off an eight-inning shutout vs. the Mariners, and he should be able to limit the damage from Toronto, who will likely be without George Springer after losing Teoscar Hernandez and Danny Jansen earlier this week. The Jays will send Ross Stripling to the mound, and the Astros hitters should be able to get to him- except the Astros bats have been ice cold. They're scoring an average of only 3.42 runs per game this season (the Jays are averaging 4), and they're batting only .178 across the last week. They're also now without Jose Altuve, and though they should win this one, it might be by a small margin. Of course, the Jays and Astros hitting should never be counted out. They can erupt at any moment, but the under in this game at plus-money is too good to pass up with the former Cy Young getting the ball at the Juice Box.

BET: Under 8 (+100)

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

• Moneyline: White Sox (-110) | Twins (-110)
• Spread: White Sox -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-188)
• Total: 7.5-Over (-110 | Under (-110)

Players to watch

• Jose Abreu has a 69% hard-hit rate and an exit velo in the 99th percentile. He's due.
• Andrew Vaughn (hopefully starting) is blistering the ball with a 60% hard-hit rate and an expected batting average of .358.
• Byron Buxton should be back, and he’s one of the best players in baseball when he is healthy.

Someone has to win this game, even though it looks like Vegas doesn't want to pick a side. The White Sox will send Michael Kopech to the mound tonight. Kopech has pitched nine innings this season and only allowed one earned run. He strikes guys out, and he doesn't walk them. The only question about Kopech is how deep he will go into this game. The Chicago bullpen has been decent, pitching a 3.15 ERA and converting 71.4% of their save opportunities.

The Twins will give Bailey Ober the start. Ober allows a lot of hard-hit balls and has an expected ERA of over eight, according to Statcast. It sounds like something the White Sox can exploit to me.

Neither team is living up to their power potential, but either team could erupt at any moment. I would lean toward the over in this game with the White Sox doing the bulk of the damage. In line with that, I am taking the big plus-money value for the White Sox to win this one by a margin of at least two runs.

BET: White Sox -1.5 (+155)

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