Bulls-Bucks, Nuggets-Warriors Game 5 NBA Playoff Bets, Odds, Lines, Props

Bets and analysis for Wednesday's potential closeout Game 5s between the Bulls-Bucks and Nuggets-Warriors.

There are two potential elimination games on the Wednesday night docket.

The 3-6 matchup in the Eastern and Western conferences both reached Game 5 with the No. 3 seeds, the Bucks and Warriors, leading 3-1. Milwaukee regained control of the series after Chicago stole Game 2 and looks very much like a Finals contender. Golden State couldn't close out Denver in Game 4 to get the sweep, though it is still very much in the driver's seat.

Regular season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoff record: 27-24

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No. 6 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks (MIL leads series, 3-1)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Bulls +12.5 (-110) | Bucks -12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls (+600) | Bucks (-901)
Total: Under 217.5 (-110) | Over 217.5 (-110)

After coming surprisingly close to a Game 1 upset win and stealing Game 2 in Milwaukee, the Bulls rolled over in Chicago. They fell by 30 and 24 points on their home court. The Bucks took all the excitement out of what could've been an interesting series had the Bulls defended their homecourt. Now, Chicago heads back to Wisconsin one game away from elimination without Zach LaVine, one of its top scorers, placed in the league's health and safety protocols this week.

The Bulls have been disjointed throughout this series. DeMar DeRozan, the team's MVP in the regular season, has two games with less than 20 points in the series, though he scored 41 in Game 2. Nikola Vucevic has been solid, averaging a double-double, but his three-point attempts have shot up, and his percentage has cratered. He also hasn't gotten to the free-throw line since Game 1. LaVine led the team in scoring in two out of the four games but has not been able to match his regular-season play. And the role players—Alex Caruso, Patrick Williams, Coby White—have done little to help make up for the stars' shortcomings.

Milwaukee looks like a title contender again after two shaky games and an injury to Khris Middleton that knocked him out for at least this round. Giannis Antetokounmpo only needed to play 29 minutes in a blowout Game 3 win in which Grayson Allen (22 points) led the team in scoring, and then Antetokounmpo dominated Game 4 finishing with 32 points and 17 boards. The MVP finalist has gotten assistance from Jrue Holiday (18 points, 6.3 assists per game), and Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Allen are averaging double-digit points.

I trust the Bucks to close out this series at home. Their past two wins on the road came by an average of 27 points, with LaVine in the lineup for the Bulls. I expect Milwaukee to hold Chicago under 100 points for the fourth time this series and finish in the 110-point range itself. This series isn't going back to Chicago, and I expect the Bucks to put an exclamation point on it ahead of their second-round series with the Celtics. I like the under on Antetokounmpo's points because I expect his minutes to be limited once Milwaukee builds a lead. We've all seen what he can do in closeout games, but there's no sense in risking his health by running him 35-40 minutes if this game isn't close.

BETS

Bucks -12
Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 33.5 Points (-110)

Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports

No. 6 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 3 Golden State Warriors (GS leads series, 3-1)

Time: 10 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Nuggets +8.5 (-110) | Warriors -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets (+310) | Warriors (-400)
Total: Under 225.5 (-110) | Over 225.5 (-110)

Denver avoided getting swept on its home court over the weekend with a Game 4 win over Golden State. The Nuggets fared much better in Colorado than in California—they were outscored by 36 points over the first two games and drew even with the Warriors in the next two. That run of competitive play might end Wednesday in San Francisco.

Nikola Jokic's scoring average increased from 25.5 PPG to 37 PPG in Denver, though he's still short on help. The team's next highest scorers are Monte Morris (14 PPG) and Will Barton (13.8 PPG). The Nuggets have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the playoffs. Their problem is the Warriors are the highest-scoring team, and Golden State is outshooting them from the outside.

The Warriors have emerged as the Finals' favorite for their play over the first four games of this series—specifically, the play of one Jordan Poole, the third Splash Brother. Poole, along with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, averages better than 20 PPG and connects on more than three three-pointers per game. For all of the Poole hype, Curry led the team in scoring off the bench in Games 2-4.

I think this is the end of the line for the Nuggets. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. not rejoining the team, it was always an uphill battle, and an opponent like the Warriors ensured a first-round exit. Golden State will win by double digits at home like it did in the first two games of the series, but don't expect Jokic to go out without a fight.

BETS

Warriors -8.5
Jordan Poole Over 19.5 Points (-112)
Nikola Jokic Over 30.5 Points (-110)

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