Celtics-Warriors NBA Finals Betting Preview

A series bet, odds and lines for the NBA Finals pitting the favored Warriors against the Celtics. Golden State is aiming for its fourth title in eight seasons.

The Warriors earned their sixth trip to the NBA Finals in eight years last Thursday, a full week ahead of Game 1, which they will host at the Chase Center.

Their opponent, the Celtics, took seven games to put away the Heat and advance to the Finals for the first time since 2010.

Golden State is—and has been—the betting favorite to win it all for some time now. The franchise missed the playoffs in two consecutive seasons and now returns to basketball’s biggest stage after running through the West, having lost just four games across three playoff series against the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks.

Boston, meanwhile, is the title favorite in the eyes of some computer projections, including FiveThirtyEight’s model, which gives the Celtics an 80% chance of winning their 18th championship. The Celtics faced a more difficult path, dropping six games and having to win two Game 7s to get to this point against a tougher slate.

So, what do you need to know before wagering on the 2022 NBA Finals? I’ve got you covered with recaps of each team’s playoff record, betting trends, player performances, injury news and recent history between Golden State and Boston.

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Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Boston Celtics No. 3 Golden State Warriors

Series winner: Celtics (+130) | Warriors (-161)
Series handicap: Celtics +1.5 (-184) | Warriors -1.5 (+148)

Game 1 (at Golden State): Thursday, June 2 | 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 2 (at Golden State): Sunday, June 5 | 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 3 (at Boston): Wednesday, June 8 | 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 4 (at Boston): Friday, June 10 | 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 5 (at Golden State): Monday, June 13 | 9 p.m. ET (ABC)*
Game 6 (at Boston): Thursday, June 16 | 9 p.m. ET (ABC)*
Game 7 (at Golden State): Sunday, June 19 | 8 p.m. ET (ABC)*

Overview

The Warriors and Celtics have met in the playoffs before, though not since 1964 when they played in the Finals. Boston won the title that season, as well as the three previous playoff meetings between the two franchises, all of which occurred when the Warriors played in Philadelphia.

There’s not much to glean from those battles between Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell all these years later. More recently, the Celtics have played the Warriors the best of any team over the last several years.

Since Steve Kerr took over as Golden State’s coach in the 2014-15 season, Boston is the only team in the NBA with a winning record against the Warriors (9-7).

They split the season series this year, 1-1, with each team winning on the road. Golden State won, 111-107, in Boston in mid-December. Notably, that win came before Klay Thompson’s return to action. It also predated Boston’s midseason turnaround.

The Celtics won the next meeting, 110-88, in March. Steph Curry, who torched Boston for 30 points in December, finished with just three points in the blowout loss after he injured his foot when Marcus Smart dove for a loose ball. Kerr called it a “dangerous play” and Curry missed the remainder of the regular season.

The Warriors have home court throughout the Finals since they finished the regular season with a better record (53-29) than the Celtics (51-31), although Boston enters as the higher seed.

Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite at SI Sportsbook for Game 1. The Warriors are 3-0 in Game 1s this postseason, while the Celtics are 1-2.

Jeff Chiu/AP

Golden State Warriors

The No. 1 offensive rating in the playoffs belongs to the Warriors. Accordingly, they average the most points (114.5) and assists per game (28.3) and rank among the top teams in just about every shooting statistic—true-shooting percentage, effective goal percentage, three-point percentage, you name it.

Golden State’s defense lags a bit behind its world-beating offense, though, and well behind its opponent’s play on that side of the ball. The Warriors are sixth in defensive rating in the postseason and eighth in points allowed (109.1).

Golden State’s path to the Finals was certainly less challenging than Boston’s, but it handled itself at each step. The Warriors asserted their dominance in the first round against the Nuggets and back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokić.

Of course, Denver was missing some key players, but it still fell in five games, in part thanks to Jordan Poole’s coming out party.

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Golden State stole home court in the next round against Memphis with a win in Game 1 and ultimately came away with a 4-2 series win. Ja Morant missed the final two games of the series and the Grizzlies exposed some cracks in the Warriors’ armor—they won and lost a game by 30-plus points in the series.

And in the Western Conference finals, the Mavericks ran into a wall after knocking off the top-seeded Suns. Luka Dončić ran rampant against Golden State but it largely limited Dallas’ secondary scorers en route to a 4-1 series win.

Curry leads the team in scoring at 25.9 ppg in the playoffs. No other Warrior has a scoring average in the 20s, but Klay Thompson (19.8) and Jordan Poole (18.4) have each alternated leading the team in scoring with Curry, and Andrew Wiggins (15.4 ppg) is an overqualified fourth option whose play has improved each round.

Golden State’s strength, as it has been for its entire run with its current Big 3, is outside shooting. Curry is tied for the most threes made per game in the postseason (3.8) and Thompson is tied for second (3.6). The team hits 13.5 per game on a 37.9% clip—both figures are slightly better than Boston’s.

Beyond their four top scorers, the Warriors have their defensive anchor and leading facilitator in Draymond Green and center Kevon Looney to match up with Boston’s bigs and reinforcements are on the way for the Finals: Both Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodola are expected to make their returns in this series.

Kerr has been able to go deep into his bench throughout the playoffs, employing lineups with Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica and even rookie Jonathan Kuminga.

Golden State is 9-7 ATS this postseason and it has only been installed as underdogs twice. The over has hit in 10 of 16 Warriors playoff games.

Lynne Sladky/AP

Boston Celtics

The Celtics were below .500 entering the New Year and now they’re playing in the Finals for the 22nd time.

They have their defense to thank for that historic turnaround. Boston has the No. 2 defensive rating, allows the second-fewest points per game (101) and has the best point differential (+6.1) in the postseason.

Offense is not its strength; it ranks eighth in offensive rating and eighth in points per game (107.1), but first-time All-NBA First Teamer Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown help make up for those deficiencies, along with some complementary three-point shooting.

Boston’s path to the Finals is perhaps the most impressive entry on its playoff resume. The C’s elected to not dodge the lurking Nets, who beat them the year prior, and drew Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Round 1. After eking out a victory in Game 1, Boston went on to sweep Brooklyn and set up a second-round series with the defending champions.

The Bucks were short-handed without Khris Middleton and nearly got by the Celtics without their All-Star forward. Trailing 3-2, Boston won Game 6 on the road thanks to 46 points from Tatum to force a Game 7 at TD Garden. Grant Williams hit seven threes and the C’s ran up the score to take the series. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston erased a 2-1 deficit against No. 1 Miami and ultimately won a Game 7 on the road to get back to the Finals.

Tatum leads the team in scoring at 27 ppg and Brown isn’t far behind at 22.9 ppg. Joining them with double-digit scoring averages are Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (15.9), Al Horford (11.9) and Grant Williams (10.1). First-year coach Ime Udoka keeps a tight rotation. Tatum is first in minutes per game among players who made it out of the first round (41.1). The next closest is Brown (38.2).

Four of Boston’s starters play more minutes per game than Klay Thompson, Golden State’s playoff minutes leader (35.1). Beyond the usual foursome of Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart, Udoka calls upon a rotating cast of the banged up Robert Williams III, Williams, Derrick White and, at times, Payton Pritchard.

Boston’s three-point shooting is less concentrated to its top players than Golden State’s. Led by Tatum’s team-best 3.2 threes per game, the Celtics average 13.4 makes on 36.2% shooting and six Celtics average at least one three per game.

The time off before Game 1 on Thursday should do Boston well. Its defensive stalwarts have all missed time in the playoffs. Smart missed three games, including two against Miami, Robert Williams III was absent for seven and has been limited for much of the postseason and the 35-year-old Horford missed one game due to COVID-19 protocols and has been playing heavy minutes throughout this playoff run. The advanced numbers tell the complete story of the Celtics’ defensive dominance but the counting stats (6.5 steals and 6.3 blocks per game) do a fine job as well.

The Celtics are 12-6 ATS in the postseason and have also only been tabbed underdogs twice. The under has hit in 10 of 18 Boston playoff games, including three of its last four.

Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

BET: Celtics (+130)

This version of the Warriors has been here many times before. No one on the Celtics has—ever. Finals experience certainly matters on this stage, though it’s not like Tatum and Co. are strangers to big games—Just look at this playoff run, never mind their other Eastern Conference finals trips.

Boston is a difficult matchup for Golden State. It can win its matchups inside and out and Tatum is capable of being the best player in this series, however long it goes. The Celtics have the perimeter defenders to hound Curry and Poole and Looney’s impact will be lessened given what Boston has to counter his presence down low. Health, of course, will be hugely important if the Celtics are to upset the Warriors. The extra time between games will seemingly benefit Boston more than Golden State, which has largely had its lineup intact throughout the postseason beyond Payton and Iguodola.

I expect the Celtics to to slow down the Warriors enough to keep pace on offense. Golden State has yet to lose a home playoff game, but Boston performed exceptionally well on the road, going 7-2 compared with 5-4 at home.

The most convincing case for a Celtics series win is their elite three-point defense. They held opponents to 31.7% shooting in the playoffs and limited the Heat, the best three-point shooting team in the regular season, to 30%.

Replicating that against Golden State’s shooters will prove difficult, but hampering the title favorite’s biggest strength will be essential to pulling off the upset.

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