NBA Finals MVP Betting Primer

Steph Curry is the betting favorite at SI Sportsbook to win his first Finals MVP. What’s the case for Curry and other stars to win the award?

The Warriors enter the 2022 NBA Finals seeking a fourth championship in eight years.

The player most responsible for this era of Golden State greatness, Steph Curry, is the favorite to win MVP in conjunction with his team being favored against the Celtics. 

Kevin Durant won Finals MVP in 2017 and 2018 and Andre Iguodola did so in 2015. Durant left the team and Iguodola is not the same player, though he’s still a Warrior.

This is Curry’s award to win, and the odds indicate as much—that is if Boston doesn’t upset Golden State and win the title. 

Behind Curry, the next two likely players to win FMVP are both Celtics: Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If Golden State wins, Curry will be the reason for its championship. If Boston wins, it could be Tatum or his co-star, Brown, who leads the team in scoring, a frequent indicator of which player will earn the award.

Both teams have other contributors in different facets of the game who could capture the award. What’s the case for the favorites to win? And which long shot has a chance of winning Finals MVP? I explored the path to hardware for three candidates below.

Steph Curry -111
Jayson Tatum +175
Jaylen Brown +1000
Draymond Green +1600
Klay Thompson +1600
Marcus Smart +2200
Jordan Poole +2500
Andrew Wiggins +2500

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Jed Jacobsohn/AP

The Favorite: Steph Curry (-111)

Curry’s position as the best player and leading scorer on the title favorite gives him the best odds to capture his first Finals MVP award. Oddly enough, no guard has won the award since Kobe Bryant in 2010. It’s been nothing but forwards in the 12 years since, the majority of which led their teams in scoring. The two exceptions—Kawhi Leonard in 2014 and Iguodola—earned it for their defense against LeBron James.

It won’t take much for Curry to become the first guard in more than a decade to win Finals MVP. In what feels like a down postseason by his astronomical standards, he’s leading the team in scoring (25.9 ppg) and is tied for the postseason lead in threes made per game (3.8). Curry led Golden State in scoring in each round and upped his rebound and assist numbers in the last round above his regular season averages, which earned him Western Conference Finals MVP.

Still, he’s yet to have a true blowup game this postseason; a signature 40-point game in the Finals (or two) could allow Curry to take hold as an even heavier favorite.

Seemingly, the only threats to Curry’s candidacy are the Warriors losing or the Celtics entirely selling out to stop him by forcing Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole or anyone else to beat them. Unless Thompson or Poole manages to outscore Curry or Draymond Green or Andrew Wiggins are able to entirely take Tatum out of the series, this is Curry’s award to lose.

Jed Jacobsohn/AP

Next Up: Jayson Tatum (+175)

The case for Tatum is similar to Curry’s—His team goes as he does.

If the Celtics win, it will be because of his same play that propelled them past the Bucks and Heat. If they lose, it will be due to his shortcomings as a scorer and playmaker on basketball’s biggest stage.

Tatum, at 24 years old, would be the youngest Finals MVP winner since Tony Parker in 2007—only nine players younger than 25 have won the award.

Tatum won the inaugural Eastern Conference Finals MVP award for his play against Miami. He has also led his team in scoring in each round and his rebound and assist numbers rose with a trip to the championship on the line.

Tatum has a handful of blowup games to point at this postseason, specifically his 46-point blowup in Game 6 against Milwaukee. He’ll have to be more assertive on offense against the Warriors. Twice against the Heat, Smart attempted more shots than Tatum and he disappeared at times late in second halves. Stuffing the stat sheet over the course of the series matters and so does clutch play.

For Tatum to win, Boston first has to pull off the upset. That will be a tough enough challenge, and then there’s the matter of overcoming what the Warriors throw at him and still dominate the series.

Long shot: Marcus Smart (+2200)

Smart has such long odds for a reason. He’s the third-most likely Celtic and fifth-most likely player to win Finals MVP.

Smart isn’t a volume scorer and he’s a high-variance offensive player. He can give you 24 points, nine rebounds and 12 assists like he did in Game 1 against the Heat or shoot 1-8 and have more fouls and turnovers than rebounds or assists like he did in Game 3 versus the Bucks.

The case for Smart as a long-shot bet is him combining the stellar perimeter defense that won him Defensive Player of the Year with his best possible offensive outcome. That looks like him hounding Curry along the three-point line, causing turnovers and chasing him off his spots and shooting and distributing the ball efficiently.

Smart is historically one of the better Curry defenders and his playmaking and shooting percentages both took a leap this season, so it’s not out of the question that he can put it all together.

Even if Smart plays his best, Tatum and Brown are almost sure to outscore him and overall draw more attention and credit if the Celtics win. That’s why his defense on Curry must be truly phenomenal for there to even be a case for him to win.

When Matthew Dellavedova was praised for his defense on Curry in the 2015 Finals, Curry still averaged 26 ppg. The best way for Smart to steal Finals MVP is to shut down the favorite, something no one has ever really been capable of doing against the game’s best shooter.

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