Lightning-Avalanche Stanley Cup Final Game 1 Betting Preview

Best bets and analysis for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final as the Avalanche welcome the two-time defending champion Lightning.

The quest to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup gets under way Wednesday night when the Eastern Conference champion Lightning hit the road to face the Western Conference champion Avalanche. The Lightning are just four wins away from their pursuit of a three-peat, while the Avalanche are shooting for their third Stanley Cup (2001, 1996). 

Colorado enters the Stanley Cup Final on 10 days’ rest after sweeping the Oilers in the Western Conference Final. The Avalanche are an impressive 12-2 in the playoffs, owning a 5-2 record at Ball Arena and perfect 7-0 record on the road.

Tampa Bay displayed its championship pedigree by winning four consecutive games against the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. The Lightning are 12-5 in the playoffs thanks to an impressive 7-1 mark at Amalie Arena.

SI Sportsbook has installed Colorado as moderate -154 favorites to win Game 1 with a total goals market currently sitting at 6.5 juiced to the under at -133 odds.

Be sure to check out our full Stanley Cup Final betting breakdown!

Let’s dive in and take a deeper look at Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final and see where the respected early money in Vegas has arrived!

Bet on the Stanley Cup Final at SI Sportsbook

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

2022 Stanley Cup Final Game 1 Betting Odds

Moneyline: Lightning (+130) at Avalanche (-154)
Puck line: Lightning +1.5 (-200) / Avalanche -1.5 (+155)
Total: 6.5 - Over (+105) / Under (-133)

Colorado won both regular season meetings against Tampa Bay as goaltender Darcy Kuemper held his own against Andrei Vasilevskiy. Kuemper stopped 65 out of 70 shots (.928 save percentage), while Gabriel Landeskog (two goals, one assist; three points), Nathan Mckinnon (one goal, two assists; three points) and Cale Makar (two assists) had major impacts. Forward Devon Toews, who only played in one of the games, made the most of his opportunity with a goal and an assist on six shots on goal.

Vasilevskiy shockingly came out on the losing end of both regular-season games despite stopping 68 of 74 shots (.919 save percentage).

Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos scored just one goal and one assist, while Nikita Kucherov notched one goal with an impressive eight shots on goal playing in one game. In the playoffs, both players are clicking on all cylinders as Kucherov (seven goals, 16 assists; 23 points) and Stamkos (nine goals, six assists; 15 points) made the biggest plays in the Eastern Conference comeback against the Rangers.

Vasilevskiy, who gave up six goals in the two regular season games against Colorado, was in peak form closing out New York surrendering only five goals over the final four games of the series. The netminder was dominant in sweeping Florida in the second round when he posted a 4-0 record with a 1.33 GAA against the NHL’s top scoring team in the regular season. Overall, the two-time Stanley Cup Champion has compiled a 12-5 record with a 2.27 GAA with .928 save percentage in the postseason and he gives the Lightning a tremendous advantage in between the pipes.

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado defenseman Cale Makar leads all defenseman in scoring with five goals and 17 assists (22 points) in the team’s 14 playoff games. Makar also works the point for the team’s power play unit that has clicked at 31.1% thus far.

Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avs with 11 goals in the playoffs but Mikko Rantanen, who just exploded for four goals against Edmonton in the Western Conference Finals, is a player DFS and proposition players should not overlook.

With Kuemper (6-2, 2.65 GAA, .897 save percentage) now healthy, head coach Jared Bednar has yet to announce if he will be in goal or if Pavel Francouz (6-0, 2.86 GAA, .906 save percentage) - who just won three consecutive games - will get the start.

Colorado is “hopeful” Nazem Kadri will return from his thumb surgery in time for the Stanley Cup Final. The Avs are also optimistic that veteran forward Andrew Cogliano (finger) will be in the lineup for Game 1.

On the flip side, Tampa Bay star center Brayden Point may be back at some point in the Final. Point (lower body), who was injured in Game 7 of the first round against Toronto, has missed 10 consecutive games.

If the team’s best two-way player can return to the lineup, it would be a massive boost for the Lightning’s chances at a three-peat. Bettors need to keep track of his status.

Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

2022 Stanley Cup Game 1 Betting Breakdown

Respected money from Las Vegas continues to make successful sports investments and they have made several wagers involving the Stanley Cup Final.

In Game 1, the belief is that Colorado -coming off a long layoff - will be rusty, very similar to how Tampa Bay performed in the first two games against New York in the Eastern Conference Final. Even though the Lightning are only 5-4 on the road this postseason, the Avs only two losses have come at home in the playoffs.

At plus-odds, the two-time defending champions are the target on the moneyline in Game 1. Tampa Bay opened as high as +155 underdogs, but following significant steam the champs are now only being offered at +130.

Moneyline: Tampa Bay (+130)

Player Proposition Wagers:

Andrei Vasilevskiy Saves - Over 32.5 (-105)

• Colorado posted 40-plus shots on goal in all four games in the Western Conference Final. The Avs are averaging 44.4 shots on goal in home games in the playoffs. Expect Vasilevskiy to be busy and up to the task.

Gabriel Landeskog Plus/Minus - Over 0.5 (+130)

• Colorado’s captain has exceeded this projection in 10 of 14 games this postseason, including six straight games. At plus-odds, expect one of the club’s clear leaders to lead his line to a positive effort in Game 1.

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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