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Betting 2022 NFL Week 1 Games: Line Movement Preview

An early look at the shifting betting odds for four marquee Week 1 matchups.

Frankie Taddeo

The 2022 NFL season kicks off on September 8 when Matthew Stafford and the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. Although we are still almost three months away from the start of the regular season, bettors have already begun to invest in several intriguing Week 1 matchups heavily.

The 2022 NFL season is far from devoid of storylines, as both bettors and fantasy managers are eager to determine:

As NFL fans attempt to decipher answers to those questions, among many others, oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook continue to make adjustments to their opening Week 1 lines as both public and respected bettors make investments.

Let’s dive in and see how early money moves lines in the Week 1 showdowns!

2022 NFL Week 1 Games Line Movement

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Moneyline: New Orleans (-220) | Atlanta (+180)
Spread: NO -5 (-110) | ATL +5 (-110)
Total: 42– Over: (-110) | Under: 42 (-110)
Game Info: Sept. 11, 2022 1 pm ET | FOX

This game opened with a look-ahead line of New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite but has since adjusted to the Saints as 5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook. Last season, New Orleans was one of the best teams in the NFL on the road boasting a 6-3 against the spread (ATS) mark.

Bettors are fading a Falcons team that will likely start Marcus Mariota under center after trading Matt Ryan to Indianapolis. In addition, star wideout Calvin Ridley is suspended indefinitely after betting on NFL games during the 2021 season.

On the flip side, New Orleans is expected to start Jameis Winston while welcoming back wideout Michael Thomas back to the lineup. The Saints also added wide receiver Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave as additional weapons to the passing attack.

The Saints are 4-1, both straight-up (SU) and ATS, in their last five meetings with Atlanta. Week 1 bettors are backing that trend against a Falcons squad that owns one of the lowest season-win totals (4.5) of any club in 2022.

2021 ATS record
NO: 9-8 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 6-3 ATS)
ATL: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Moneyline: New England (-333) | Miami (+260)
Spread: NE +2 (-130) | MIA -2 (-150)
Total: 44.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 44.5 (-110)
Game Info: Sept. 11, 2022 1 pm ET | CBS

This game has moved off the prime number of a full field goal demand at SISB after strong support by bettors who are backing Bill Belichick in the role of underdogs in the AFC East showdown. Miami is only a 2-point favorite despite adding one of the best wideouts in the league in Tyreek Hill. The speedy Hill should instantly help the development of Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering his second season as Miami’s starting signal-caller.

New England, who won 10 games and qualified for the playoffs in Mac Jones's rookie season, failed to make any splashy moves to make the offense more dynamic. The Patriots hope that former Miami wide receiver DeVante Parker can reclaim his 2019 form when he amassed 1,202 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Since that breakout campaign, Parker has only compiled 1,308 receiving yards and six touchdowns combined.

This line move is a bit perplexing as Miami is 4-1 both SU and ATS in the last five meetings with New England. In addition, a deeper dive reveals that New England is a paltry 2-8 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Beach. It will be interesting to see if this line continues to steam against the Dolphins as we get closer to September.

2021 ATS record (incl. playoffs)
NE: 10-8 ATS (Home: 5-4 ATS, Away: 5-4 ATS)
MIA: 9-7-1 ATS (Home: 5-4 ATS, Away: 4-3-1 ATS)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-130) | Dallas (+120)
Spread: TB -2 (-110) | DAL +2 (-110)
Total: 52– Over: (-110) | Under: 52 (-110)
Game Info: Sept. 11, 2022 8:20 pm ET | NBC

The ageless Tom Brady is back for his 24th season, but bettors are fading a Tampa Bay squad that was just 3-8 ATS on the road last season. This line opened with the Buccaneers as full 3-point favorites, but following strong Cowboys steam, oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook have dropped the spread a full point, now listing Dallas as only 2-point home underdogs.

Reports are that star wideout Chris Godwin could be back from his ACL/MCL tear sooner than was originally expected. If the stud wide receiver, who has hauled in 12 of Brady’s 83 touchdowns (14.5%) the last two seasons, can be on the field against Dallas I would expect this line to return to its opening number potentially. With Godwin working the slot, Mike Evans will now be joined by Russell Gage on the outside as the club has moved on from Antonio Brown.

The Cowboys’ offense could potentially be in for some regression after trading leading wideout Amari Cooper to Cleveland. To help the passing attack, Dallas added former Pittsburgh wide receiver James Washington to join Cee Dee Lamb and Michael Gallup. With Cooper now out of the picture, fantasy managers should expect Lamb - who has averaged 115.5 targets in his first two seasons - to see an even bigger target share. Try and get as many shares of Lamb, who instantly becomes Prescott’s WR1, as you can in fantasy football 2022.

These two powerful squads also met in Week 1 last season, with Tampa Bay coming away with a 31-29 victory but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites.

2021 ATS record (incl. playoffs)
TB: 10-9 ATS (Home: 7-3 ATS, Away: 3-8 ATS)
DAL: 13-5 ATS (Home: 5-4 ATS, Away: 8-1 ATS)

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Moneyline: Denver (-210) | Seattle (+175)
Spread: DEN -5 (-110) | SEA +5 (-110)
Total: 41.5– Over (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)
Game Info: Sept. 12, 2022 8:15 pm ET | ESPN

Denver will easily be the biggest public play in Week 1 as Russell Wilson returns to Seattle to face his former club on Monday Night Football. This primetime game opened with Denver as 3.5-point favorites, but following significant steam, the Seahawks have risen to 5.5-point home underdogs.

After 11 seasons in Seattle, Wilson joins a Denver team loaded with offensive weapons both in the passing and the running game. In the backfield, the Broncos have one of the best 1-2 combos in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. In the passing attack, Wilson will have Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler at his disposal.

Seattle, who will be starting either Geno Smith or Drew Locke under center in 2022, will easily be a fade target of bettors throughout the season. Despite having two solid wideouts in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks' passing game is expected to struggle immensely due to questionable quarterback play leading to just a 5.5 regular-season win total.

Denver, who finished both 1-4 SU and ATS last season down the stretch on the road, will receive strong financial support at the betting windows to improve that disappointing area with Wilson now at the helm. It all could start in Week 1 in what appears to be a massive mismatch on paper.

2021 ATS record (incl. playoffs)
DEN: 8-9 ATS (Home: 5-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
SEA: 8-9 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 2-7 ATS)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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