Rangers-Tigers, White Sox-Astros, Padres-Rockies MLB Bets

Bets and analysis for Friday’s Rangers-Tigers, White Sox-Astros and Padres-Rockies games.

Let’s get in on some Friday MLB action!

We are off to a 24-17 start to the season (58.5%) on SI Sportsbook and 21 of those wins paid plus-money.

If you’re just starting to follow, in my MLB bets series I try to only pick plus-money bets or bets that have very little juice.

Our bankroll strategy is for our wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes that means the “risk” is higher but, so far, our bankroll is growing nicely.

You can also track along with all my bets across all sports on SharpRank.

Paul Sancya/AP

Bet on MLB at SI Sportsbook

Texas Rangers (30-33) at Detroit Tigers (24-39)

• Moneyline: Rangers (+100) | Tigers (-118)
• Run line: Rangers -1.5 (+165) | Tigers +1.5 (-200)
• Total: 7.5 - Over (-125) | Under (+105)

This bet is based almost entirely on how good Tarik Skubal is and if you haven’t noticed, he’s been phenomenal for Detroit.

Skubal has posted a 2.71 ERA while walking only 4.4% of batters faced and yielding 0.52 home runs per nine innings—the ninth-best mark among qualified pitchers.

Meanwhile, Skubal (5-3, 2.71 ERA) is facing a Texas team scoring an average of 3.93 runs per game for June. They have a 23% K rate and have scored 41.5% of their runs via home run—something Skubal doesn’t surrender very often.

The Rangers, meanwhile, will send Jon Gray (1-3, 4.85) to the bump. Gray has been mediocre this season and has allowed a lot of hard hits. Fortunately for the Rangers, that’s something the Tigers don’t do very well. Detroit has scored the league-lowest 2.68 runs per game this season, with only 2.21 runs per game in June.

Players to watch

Adolis Garcia is hitting .295 with four homers in June.

Harold Castro is batting .294 with all four of his homers coming off right-handed pitchers.

Either—or both—bullpen could blow up, but eight of Skubal’s 12 starts have ended with less than 7.5 total runs scored.

BET: Under 7.5 (+105)

LM Otero/AP

Chicago White Sox (30-31) vs. Houston Astros (39-24)

• Moneyline: White Sox (+140) | Astros (-167)
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-150) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
• Total: 7.5 - Over (-125) | Under (+105)

Full disclosure: I am an Astros fan and generally when I bet on my own team, it doesn’t work out.

That being said, I am doing it anyway.

Framber Valdez (6-3, 2.64) gets the ball at home for Houston. Valdez has been excellent this year, surrendering only 0.36 home runs per nine innings.

On the other side, Lucas Giolito (4-2, 3.88) gets the start for the White Sox. Giolito has allowed a ton of hard contact this season and yielded a barrel-rate in the bottom 4% of the league. His expected ERA is 4.65, according to Statcast. His road ERA is 4.30.

Now, I should point out the White Sox hit lefties well. Very well. The best in the league, in fact. Also, the White Sox have a .567 win percentage on the road and they are scoring 5.65 runs per game in June, compared to the Astros’ 4.85.

But … Yordan Alvarez.

Players to Watch

Alvarez has a 1.027 OPS for the season and he’s hitting .346 with 14 homers versus right-handed pitchers. He’s hitting .468 fin June.

Yordan Alvarez with his 150th career extra-base hit today, in his 290th game.

Last LH hitter to reach 150 XBH in 290 games or fewer?

Oh, only Ted Williams, in 1940 (255 games).

H/T - @EliasSports

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) June 15, 2022

Michael Brantley is slugging 1.083 in 12 career at bats versus Giolito.

Jake Burger is expected to return Friday night. He’s hitting .400 versus southpaws this season and .359 with four homers during June.

I’m still backing my boys. Mostly because of Yordan Alvarez—perhaps the best hitter on the planet (Aaron Judge fans, calm down). Valdez will go deep into the game, and the Astros should be able to get their knocks off Giolito and remain in control.

BET: Astros -1.5 (+125)

Charles Rex Arbogast/AP

San Diego Padres (41-24) vs. Colorado Rockies (27-37)

• Moneyline: Padres (-150 )| Rockies (+125)
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Rockies +1.5 (-118)
• Total: 12.5 - Over (-118) | Under (+100)

Yes, I checked the weather before I wrote this. Yes, It’s 95 degrees in Denver on Friday.

McKenzie Gore (4-2, 2.50) gets the start for the NL West-leading Padres at Coors Field. Gore has had an excellent rookie season despite walking too many batters, but he’s also striking them out at a rate of nearly eleven per nine innings.

Of course, striking batters out at Coors isn’t an easy task but the Rockies are actually averaging only 4.44 runs per game at home for June.

On the other side, Kyle Freeland (2-5, 4.39) gets the ball. Yes, the Padres have been hot but Freeland held the Braves to only two earned runs just last week.

Players to watch:

Manny Machado is batting .310 with five extra base hits in 29 at bats versus Freeland.

Charlie Blackmon is heating up, batting .303 with three home runs in June.

Thirteen is a big number—even at Coors. I’m taking plus-money for the under.

BET Under 12.5 (+100)

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