UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez

Betting analysis and odds for UFC Fight Night, headlined by favorite Brian Ortega battling Yair Rodriguez.

The UFC returns to Long Island on Saturday, where fight fans will be treated to a rare matinee card that will surely not disappoint. The main event will feature two featherweight title contenders, as Brian Ortega will attempt to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to the current champ Alexander Volkanovsk in September of last year. "T-City" was seconds away from winning the title via guillotine submission, but Volkanovski was able to survive somehow and escape (some would say miraculously). We will certainly see a clash of styles, as Rodriguez likes to keep it on the feet and box, while Ortega, a BJJ black belt, is very dangerous once fights get to the ground. A win for Ortega would most certainly secure him a rematch for the belt, while it would be hard to deny Rodriguez a title shot if he is somehow able to score the upset.

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Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports

UFC Fight Night on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez

Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Location: UBS Arena | Long Island, NY, USA

Prelims 11 a.m. ET
Jessica Penne (+140) vs. Emily Ducote (-165)
Dwight Grant (-135) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+110)
Dustin Jacoby (+105) vs. Da-Un Jung (-125)
Bill Algeo (-200) vs. Herbert Burns (+165)
Ricky Simon (+130) vs. Jack Shore (-155)
Punahele Soriano (-225) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+190)

Main Card 2 p.m. ET
Lauren Murphy (+175) vs. Miesha Tate (-215)
Shane Burgos (-175) vs. Charles Jourdain (+145)
Matt Schnell (+205) vs. Sumudaerji (-250)
Li Jianling (+130) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-154)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+240) vs. Amanda Lemos (-300)
Brian Ortega (-170) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+140)

SI Video’s Doug Vazquez

This week I rewatched Ortega vs. Volkanovski and still come away stunned that Volk was able to escape one of the nastiest guillotines in the sport. This loss surely still haunts Ortega, which has provided him extra motivation in this camp to secure a win against Rodriguez and run it back for the championship with Volkanovksi. Rodriguez is a very exciting striker and proficient in his own right in the grappling game, but against Ortega, I don't think he has quite enough. In contrast, T-City has more ways to win this fight. I think he will wear down Rodriguez on the mat and eventually get the choke out.

BET: Ortega via SUB (+225)

SI Video’s Julian Pinto

In the main event, I have Brian Ortega getting the decision against Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez does not do the best job of managing his gas tank. He can effectively use his Tae Kwon Do, but his movements are so explosive that he will eventually tire out in the later rounds, as we saw against Alex Caceres and Max Halloway. This will give a BJJ ace like Brian Ortega a sizable advantage later in the fight. A large reason why Rodriguez can throw the kind of kicks he does with little consequence is because he has a good guard, but when you have someone like Brian Ortega on top of you, fighting off your back is going to be extremely difficult, and if Rodriguez tires himself out in the first three rounds as he did against Alex Caceres, Ortega will probably end up controlling Rodriguez on the ground.

BET: Ortega via DEC (+250)

SI MMA Writer Justin Barrasso

Ortega vs. Rodriguez is a true clash of styles. Ortega needs to stay true to his style by mixing it up with the clinch and finding a way to lock in his array of submissions. As long as he doesn't stand and strike with Rodriguez, I see this fight favoring Ortega and think there is a path for him to find a finish.

BET: Ortega via SUB (+225)

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