AFC East Futures: Hard to Bet Against the Bills

Buffalo is a heavy favorite to win the devision, but who has the best chance of sneaking in if they falter?

Based on the summer over/under win totals at SI Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win the AFC East, and they have the lowest odds (+650) to win the Super Bowl. Miami and New England are in a dead heat to finish in second place with an over/under of 8.5 wins, while the Jets remain the doormats in the division.

Despite the betting outlook, each team in the AFC East made moves to improve in the offseason. The winning window in the NFL can close quickly, so there is always hope that the Dolphins and Jets have narrowed the gap on Buffalo. Both teams have the offensive talent to push higher up the league rankings, while New England holds the coaching edge with a developing young quarterback.

To get a feel for each team’s chances, here is the link to each AFC East team’s season win total betting preview:

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets

When betting on a division winner, finding flaws in the odds is a must while also understanding the direction and potential of each team. 

The Bills come into 2022 with an elite quarterback and a high-ranking defense, making them almost a layup to win the division with minimal risk (-220). The great equalizer in the NFL is injuries, so a team’s direction can change on a dime.

New England has some questions on the defensive side of the ball, and they don’t have enough of a gap to dominate the Jets or Dolphins. New York comes into the year with the most significant question at quarterback, plus their defense isn’t ready to stop top offenses. Miami should be the biggest threat to unseat Buffalo in the AFC East if Tua Tagovailoa reaches his potential.

Ultimately, the best value in this division should be +450 on the Patriots. They have 16 AFC East titles over the past 19 seasons. Mac Jones is the real deal, and New England knows how to win tight games. Their rushing attack creates an edge when they play from the lead. I trust Bill Belichick, and he has a chip on his shoulder after bowing out to Buffalo in the playoffs last year.

Nevertheless, my investment is on Buffalo. They still need to prove that they can win a big game in the postseason, and Josh Allen must carry his team to victory. The Bills were 13 seconds away from the AFC title game in 2021. Their team's destiny may have changed last season with a squib kick. Is Buffalo on the doorstep of developing into a powerhouse franchise? Or did they miss their chance to win the Super Bowl by one minor coaching decision?