Buffalo Bills Over/Under Wins Total Betting Breakdown

The Bills are tied for the highest win total over/under at SI Sportsbook at 11.5. Can the Bills top last season’s 11-6 record?

The Bills are the team to beat.

You read that right.

The Bills, a franchise that has only known heartache, enters the 2022-23 NFL season as the SI Sportsbook betting favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy with +650 odds.

AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: Patriots | Dolphins | Jets | Divisional Futures

Buffalo has a loaded roster, one of the best quarterbacks in Josh Allen and added Von Miller to avoid a late-game defensive meltdown like last year’s 13-second disaster that ultimately led to the team’s season ending against the Chiefs in the divisional round.

With such high expectations comes a large over/under, and the Bills are tied for the largest in the NFL with a wins total projection of 11.5.

Let’s examine whether or not to bet on the back-to-back AFC East champions topping 11.5 wins this upcoming season.

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Jeffrey T. Barnes/AP

Buffalo Bills Over/Under: 11.5 - O (-150) | U (-105)

2021-22 record: 11-6; First AFC East; 3-seed; Lost divisional round at Chiefs
AFC East future odds: -200 (First)
AFC future odds: +333 (First)
Super Bowl future Odds: +650 (First)

Key additions: LB Von Miller, OL Rodger Saffold, WR Jamison Crowder
Key losses: WR Cole Beasley, DB Levi Wallace, OL Darryl Williams

Bills Central offseason grade

:

B+

“For a team that’s advanced in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Bills have had quite a significant amount of roster turnover this year, but almost all of it has been for the better. They added the top pass rusher on the free-agent market in Miller, bolstered both lines with other key free-agent additions such as Saffold, 

Phillips

, 

Settle

 and 

Lawson

, replaced backup QB 

Mitchell Trubisky

 with someone even more accomplished in 

Keenum

 and drafted 

Elam

 in the first round. They also drafted 

Cook

, who should help in the passing game and added Crowder and 

Austin

. GM Brandon Beane did this all by staying under the salary cap, too.”—

Nick Fierro

SCHEDULE

Week 1: At Rams
Week 2: Titans
Week 3: At Dolphins
Week 4: At Ravens
Week 5: Steelers
Week 6: At Chiefs
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Packers
Week 9: At Jets
Week 10: Vikings
Week 11: Browns
Week 12: At Lions
Week 13: At Patriots
Week 14: Jets
Week 15: Dolphins
Week 16: At Bears
Week 17: At Bengals
Week 18: Patriots

Having to invest in -150 odds to get the over here is an awfully steep price and one that we would not recommend doing in principle.

For this exercise, though, we are willing to entertain that idea if we see a path to 12 wins. Let’s start with the division games.

The Bills went 5-1 in the AFC East last year, with the lone loss coming against the Patriots when the wind famously limited both offenses in a Monday night showdown in Buffalo. Buffalo easily handled both the Dolphins and the Jets.

Now, the Bills should sweep the Jets so that’s two wins. The Dolphins should be better, while it seems there are question marks around the Patriots. Is Joe Judge, the mastermind behind this genius play, really going to help run their offense?

To be conservative, let’s say they go 2-2 against those two teams. That gets us to 4-2.

Now, let’s break down the NFC and AFC matchups.

Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports

The Bills get the NFC North, a notoriously weak division, and their other cross-over game is the Rams in the season opener.

That game should be difficult, and the Rams are slight favorites. Again, let’s be conservative here and go with a loss. That’s 4-3 and leaves us with just three more losses before we back the under, which is much more profitable.

The NFC North foursome of the Packers, Vikings, Bears and Lions is quite favorable for the Bills since both tough games (Green Bay, Minnesota) are in Buffalo. To make up for our conservative bets, let’s say the Bills can run the gauntlet here and go 4-0.

That has Buffalo at 8-3 with the six non-division AFC games remaining.

The Bills welcome the Titans, Steelers and Browns, and visit the Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals. That’s a hellacious road slate.

The home games don’t seem overly challenging, despite the Titans being the AFC’s 1-seed last year. Buffalo’s first home game should be electric, and we expect a Tennessee regression this season. Buffalo can go 3-0 in those games.

That road slate will be challenging, but a team like Buffalo should steal at least one of those games. If the Bills are going to be the team to beat, you have to win tough road games, and Buffalo should win at least one game (the Ravens game seems a solid bet).

Going 4-2 in those AFC games gets the Bills to 12-5. Now, you can quibble with the perfect NFC North record or the 3-0 home slate vs. non-division AFC teams, but you can easily add a road win at the Dolphins or Patriots or going better than 1-3 in the four-game road slate against the Rams, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals.

We don’t love the odds, but a 12-5 record seems a safe bet here.

BET: Over 11.5 wins (-150)

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