Recent Shift in Odds Hints at a Possible Shocker With No. 1 Pick in the NFL Draft

Florida’s Anthony Richardson was projected to be the fourth QB off the board, but his odds of going higher have skyrocketed.

Anthony Richardson’s odds to become the first Florida player ever drafted No. 1 overall are rapidly improving.

The redshirt sophomore opened as a longshot to hear his name called first in April’s NFL draft, however, Richardson’s stock has skyrocketed in recent weeks after a few favorable mock drafts. He previously had odds as long as +10000 but he can now be found among the favorites to go first with odds as low as +750 at some sportsbooks. The prospects still ahead of him include Heisman-winning Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, Ohio State signal caller C.J. Stroud and Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.

Richardson was a one-year starter for the Gators. He flashed his tantalizing talent in a 6’4”, 230-pound frame with serious speed under center and a cannon for an arm. Still, inaccuracy and turnovers were both issues at times for the dual-threat quarterback who attempted less than 400 passes in his college career and had a completion percentage below 55%.

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A CBS Sports mock draft from earlier this week had Richardson going No. 1 to the Colts via a trade up. Chris Trapasso wrote: “I think Richardson is going to emphatically remove the lid from Lucas Oil Stadium at the NFL combine. That will lead to the Colts taking a chance on him, given the hiring of former Eagles (offensive coordinator) Shane Steichen as head coach. Richardson has similarities to Jalen Hurts and All-Pro upside.”

Though he’s viewed by many as a raw prospect with relatively limited starting experience, it’s difficult to argue with his tools and potential.

SI’s Kevin Hanson has Richardson ranked 17th on his big board and had this to say about him as a prospect: “Richardson has an elite combination of arm strength, size and athleticism. While the one-year starter would have benefited from a return to Gainesville (he needs to improve his accuracy), he offers his future NFL team unlimited dual-threat upside.”

Hanson’s latest mock draft has Richardson going No. 16 to the Commanders – the fourth QB off the board behind Young, Stroud and Levis.

It’s important to note that the No. 1 pick currently belongs to the Bears, who drafted quarterback Justin Fields 11th overall in 2021. Chicago could trade the pick, which hasn’t been done since 2016 when the Rams moved up for Jared Goff; they could trade Fields and draft a quarterback themselves; or they could select one of the elite defensive prospects in this class, such as Georgia interior defensive lineman Jalen Carter or Alabama edge Will Anderson Jr.

There are a few teams inside the top 10 in need of a quarterback, including the Texans at No. 2, Colts at No. 4, Raiders at No. 7 and Panthers at No. 9.

The NFL combine begins Feb. 27 and runs until March 6 in Indianapolis. All eyes will be on Richardson and the quarterback class when they are showcased on March 4 and the discussion around the No. 1 pick will only intensify between now and the NFL draft, which will be held April 27-29 in Kansas City.