2023 March Madness First Four: Predictions for Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern, Nevada vs. Arizona State

Betting analysis for the First Four games between No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson and No. 16 Texas Southern and No. 11 Nevada and No. 11 Arizona State.

The second set of First Four games begins Wednesday evening and the final two spots in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 are on the line.

In the first game at Dayton Arena, Fairleigh Dickinson faces Texas Southern and the winner will be the No. 16 seed in the East Region. This marks the first-ever game between the two schools.

Later on, Nevada will take on Arizona State for the opportunity to enter the West Region as the No. 11 seed. It’s the fifth meeting all-time between the two programs with the most recent matchup taking place in 2018. The series is tied, 2–2.

First Four Odds: No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 16 Texas Southern 

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET | truTV

Spread: Fairleigh Dickinson +2 (-118) | Texas Southern -2 (-110)

Moneyline: FDU (+110) | TXSO (-138)

Over/Under: 146.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)

Fairleigh Dickinson didn’t even win its conference championship game and Texas Southern is the third 20-loss team to ever make the NCAA Tournament. These are the two lowest-graded teams in the Field of 68 by KenPom (No. 312 and No. 285, respectively, out of 363) and they are playing for a shot to advance to the Round of 64 where No. 1 Purdue awaits.

The Knights lost to Merrimack in the Northeast Conference tournament championship, but because the Warriors were ineligible for the postseason, FDU earned an auto bid anyway. The Tigers entered the SWAC tournament with an 11–20 record and then went on a run to capture the title and go dancing for the third year in a row. They were in the First Four each of the last two years and won both times.

Fairleigh Dickinson has the edge on offense as it ranks among the top 50 teams by scoring average (77.8) and four of its players average 10-plus points per game, led by Demetre Roberts (16.7). On defense, the Knights are a disaster. They rank third-to-last in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric and second-to-last in strength of schedule.

Texas Southern is no world-beater, but it is a team that’s been here before and it’s played a significantly tougher schedule than its opponent. The Tigers played five tournament teams in non-conference play and scored an upset win over Arizona State in overtime in November. Still, they’re among the worst-graded offenses in DI, per KenPom, and are hardly a threat from beyond the arc. Davon Barnes (13.6 ppg) is the team’s best offensive threat and three of his teammates also have double-digit scoring averages.

The under hits at a 56% rate for Texas Southern and  just 42% of the time for Fairleigh Dickinson. During the Tigers’ run through the SWAC tournament, the under hit in all three games and the same goes for the Knights in the Northeast tournament. Texas Southern likes to get up and down the floor relatively quickly (No. 72 tempo), but its style isn’t necessarily prone to high-scoring shootouts.

Farleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern Best Bet: Under 146.5 (-118)

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First Four Odds:  No. 11 Nevada  vs. No. 11 Arizona State 

Time: 9:14 p.m. ET | truTV

Spread: Nevada +2 (-110) | Arizona State -2 (-118)

Moneyline: NEV (+110) | ASU (-138)

Over/Under: 133.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)

Nevada was one-and-done in the Mountain West conference tournament while Arizona State had a lengthier run in the Pac-12 tournament to the semifinals. Still, both teams have work to do in Dayton in order to set up a Round of 64 date with No. 6 TCU.

The Wolfpack lost their last three games despite the best efforts of Jarod Lucas, their leading scorer (17.3 ppg). He strung together three performances with 20-plus points and did plenty of his damage at the free-throw line as well. Though Nevada’s defensive efficiency outpaces its offensive numbers, there are a few particularly encouraging stats about its proficiency on that side of the ball: The Wolfpack rank 19th in turnovers per game (10.2), sixth in free-throw percentage (78.8%) and 37th in free-throw attempts per game (21.5).

The Sun Devils rely heavily on their stout defense, which ranks 28th on KenPom. They’re one of 14 teams that hold their opponents under 40% shooting from the field and they’re just inside the top 100 in points allowed (67.2). On offense, Desmond Cambridge Jr. (13.7 ppg) is the biggest threat for ASU, which has poor shooting numbers as a team across the board.

Despite its recent run of losses, Nevada covers the spread more than 62% of the time. Conversely, Arizona State covers in 44% of its games. And one matchup issue that the Wolfpack could exploit is the Sun Devils’ fouling issues. They commit 18.5 fouls per game, among the most in the country. Up against a team that knows how to get to the line and routinely knocks down its shots once there, the free throw dilemma could rear its head early on in this game. The upset could well be there for the taking, but go ahead and take the insurance points.

Nevada vs. Arizona State Best Bet: Nevada +2 (-110)

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