March Madness Picks and Best Bets: Five Underdogs That Will Cover the Spread

There's bound to be a few upsets in the first round of the men's NCAA tournament. Pat Forde reveals five lower-seeded teams, including two 12 vs. 5 matchups, that will cover the spread.

The NCAA Tournament offers a betting bacchanal for fans, with plenty of unknowns that make wagering both more challenging and more interesting. Fresh matchups, unfamiliar teams, the pressure that comes with a one-and-done tournament format — some wild stuff can happen, which is why we love March Madness.

The underdogs always have their day on Thursday and Friday, but it can be tricky figuring out which ones. Fortunately, I’ve paid attention so you didn’t have to. I’ve settled on five lower-seeded teams that are capable of beating the spread — some of which will win outright. 

March Madness Upset Alert: No. 2 Texas (-14.5) vs. No. 15 Colgate

If there is one lower-level seed that will not be over-awed by the Big Dance's big stage, it’s the Raiders. This is their fourth straight bid, and the core of this team has been together for most of that run. They’re 0-3 in NCAA tourney games, but they’ve been in all of them — leading Wisconsin in the second half last year, Arkansas in the second half in 2021, Tennessee in the second half in ’19.

For many of Colgate’s best players, this is their last college roundup; they’ll leave everything on the floor in Des Moines. And the Raiders are unaccustomed to losing — they’ve won 20 of their last 21 games, with the only loss by a single point on the road.

Colgate will be at a pronounced athletic disadvantage that will challenge its defense, but offensively the Raiders will be hard to guard. They lead the nation in three-point shooting, and Matt Langel’s team runs some nifty sets and actions to get open looks.

The final factors in Colgate’s favor are these: the injury status of Texas forward Timmy Allen, who missed the Big 12 tournament and is considered “day-to-day” for this tourney; and the investment the Longhorns put into winning the Big 12 tournament. Have the Horns refueled their emotional tank yet?

The pick: Colgate +14.5

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March Madness Upset Alert:  No. 2 UCLA (-18.5) vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville

The Bruins have a cluster of injury concerns coming out of the Pac-12 tournament. The school has not updated the status of guard and defensive stopper Jaylen Clark, who reportedly suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. The outlook for center Adem Bona, who injured a shoulder and missed the Pac-12 final against Arizona, is more promising — coach Mick Cronin said Bona was “much more pain free” earlier this week. Also, UCLA’s three upper-class leaders — Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell and David Singleton — played big minutes in a fairly bruising league tournament, and now must be ready for a Thursday turnaround.

While Asheville is taking a big step up in weight class from the Big South, the Bulldogs (27-7) dominated the league. They have a couple of players who can challenge UCLA’s vaunted defense in 6’11” Drew Pember (21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds) and guard Tajion Jones (15 points, 5.2 rebounds, 45.6 percent shooting from three-point range). Asheville has only lost once in 2023 and showed its mettle in surviving a couple of scares in the Big South tourney.

UCLA should survive and advance. But the spread is awfully large in a game where the possession count should be in the mid-60s.

The pick: UNC Asheville +18.5.

March Madness Upset Alert:  No. 4 Tennessee (-11.5) vs. No. 13 Louisiana

The Volunteers have lost seven of their last 12 and haven’t beaten a tourney team away from home since Jan. 17. The season-ending injury to point guard Zakai Zeigler is impactful at both ends of the floor, since he was the table setter offensively and the catalyst of a vicious defense. The Volunteers can still guard, just not quite as well, while an already shaky offense has struggled with turnovers (28 in two SEC tourney games). Other than rebounding their own misses, the Vols don’t have a lot going for themselves at that end of the floor.

Louisiana has a big weapon to battle Tennessee’s interior physicality in center Jordan Brown. The 6’11” McDonald’s All-American, who has bounced from Nevada to Arizona to Louisiana, averages 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds. He will test Tennessee’s array of interior bruisers. The Ragin’ Cajuns should also have commensurate athleticism on the perimeter, capable of harassing an opponent that is short on ball handlers. Coach Bob Marlin’s team is a transfer-portal creation that has come together well this season. The Cajuns can win this one outright.

The pick: Louisiana +11.5.

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March Madness Upset Alert: No. 5 Duke (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts.

Duke is a red-hot team that should win, but don’t be shocked if this game is competitive throughout. Ken Pomeroy’s analytics favor the Blue Devils by just three points, less than half the established spread.

The Blue Devils bring considerable size to the contest with 7-footers Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively often playing together. Oral Roberts counters with 7’5” Connor Vanover, the only player in the tournament capable of looking down on Zach Edey. Vanover, an Arkansas transfer, will have be physical defensively without fouling (he’s never fouled out this year and has only drawn four fouls twice). Offensively, Vanover’s three-point proficiency (43 made in 30 games) will force the Duke bigs to respect him and open up the middle.

The Blue Devils are an excellent defensive team, which will challenge ORU’s diminutive star guard, Max Abmas. But he finds ways to get his points, as witnessed by his 26.7 ppg scoring average in a Cinderella Sweet Sixteen run in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. And Abmas has some sidekicks capable of scoring as well in an offense that minimizes turnovers and shoots a high percentage.

Keep this in mind: Duke has won four NCAA Tournament games in the previous two years. Oral Roberts has won three. Don’t expect a team that has lost just once since before Thanksgiving to back down just because the opponent is Duke.

The pick: Oral Roberts +7.5.

March Madness Upset Alert: No. 5 Miami (-3.5) vs. No. 12 Drake.

Every NCAA Tournament needs a good 5-12 upset. This tourney might have multiple, and this one jumps out as a strong possibility.

The status of Miami powerful post player Norchad Omier will be immensely important in evaluating this game. He injured an ankle early against Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals last week, and his availability is in doubt against Drake. With him, Miami has a well-rounded offense with Omier inside and the perimeter firepower in ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller and Nijel Pack. He’s also vital for a mediocre defensive team. At a listed 248 pounds, Omier is more than 50 pounds heavier than any other Miami starter and more than 30 pounds heavier than any sub.

For Drake, coach’s son Tucker DeVries (19 points, 5.6 rebounds) and point guard Roman Penn (12.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists) form a nice lead tandem but there is more to the Bulldogs than that. They have a major paint presence in 6'10", 275-pound Darnell Brodie, one of the reasons they don’t give up a lot of second-chance points. Drake was dominant in the Missouri Valley tournament, and if it didn’t lose that edge while not playing since March 5, it will bring a lot of confidence to Albany. Drake has lost just once in the last 14 games.

The pick: Drake +3.5.

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