A-10 preview: VCU, Rhode Island & Dayton poised to battle for league crown

VCU is once again projected to battle for the A-10 title, but resurgent Rhode Island could present a formidable challenge.

Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.

These are the model’s projections for the A-10, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.

Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here. 

Player of the Year: Jack Gibbs, Davidson

Gibbs finished fourth among multi-bid conference players in scoring last season, and we project him to be the top scorer in college basketball this year. If he beats out players from bigger teams and conferences, like Duke’s Grayson Allen and Iowa’s Peter Jok, expect Gibbs to be a lock for conference player of the year and in the conversation for national player of the year. You can also expect to hear a lot of Stephen Curry comparisons, even as Gibbs tries his best to keep them at bay.

Newcomer of the Year: Emile Blackman, Duquesne

Blackman arrives to Duquesne as part of the great diaspora from Niagara, which has lost 20 players to transfer since coach Chris Casey began his tenure in 2013. Last year, Blackman averaged 15.8 points in 33.4 minutes a game for the Purple Eagles, and he was the team’s emotional core. This season he projects as the Dukes’ leading scorer in part because of his history of high-volume (and decent-efficiency) shooting and in part because Duquesne is replacing its top four scorers from 2015–16.

Josh Hart, Grayson Allen lead SI's player of the year projections

All-Conference Team & Sixth Man

PG: Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure
PG: Jack Gibbs, Davidson
SG: Charles Cooke, Dayton
PF: T.J. Cline, Richmond
PF: Tyler Cavanaugh, George Washington
6th man: SG: EC Matthews, Rhode Island 

Projected Order of Finish

(Projected conference record in parentheses. The tiebreaker for teams with identical records is their standing in SI’s 1–351 national rankings, which will be revealed in early November.)

Conference Rank	Team	Proj. Conf. Record	’15-16 Conf. Record
1	VCU	13–5	14–4
2	Rhode Island	13–5	9–9
3	Dayton	13–5	14–4
4	Davidson	11–7	10–8
5	Richmond	10–8	7–11
6	George Washington	10–8	11–7
7	St. Bonaventure	9–9	14–4
8	Saint Joseph's	8–10	13–5
9	La Salle	8–10	4–14
10	Massachusetts	8–10	6–12
11	Fordham	7–11	8–10
12	George Mason	6–12	5–13
13	Duquesne	5–13	6–12
14	Saint Louis	5–13	5–13

1. VCU (13–5)

In Will Wade’s first season, the Rams finished in a three-way tie for first place in the A-10 and advanced to the tournament championship before losing to St. Joseph’s. And although they lost leading scorer Melvin Johnson, last year’s No. 2, JeQuan Lewis, has shown he’s ready to handle a bigger role. In VCU’s five postseason games, he averaged 21.0 points and 8.0 assists. He’ll be complemented by big man Justin Tillman and middle linebacker Mo Alie-Cox down low. Four-star wing De’Riante Jenkins is the prize of the 2016 recruiting class, and fellow freshman Samir Doughty should be a key contributor from the start of the season.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
JeQuan Lewis	Sr	PG	13.1	2.6	5.2	112.2	23%	78%
Justin Tillman	Jr	PF	11.7	7.9	0.5	120.7	21%	65%
Mo Alie-Cox	Sr	PF	11.2	5.8	1.1	121.5	19%	69%
De'Riante Jenkins	Fr	SF/SG	8.2	3.5	1.1	106.3	20%	52%
Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed	Jr	PF	8.0	4.6	0.4	101.3	25%	44%
Samir Doughty	Fr	SG	6.4	2.4	1.1	99.4	19%	47%
Jonathan Williams	Jr	PG	5.7	1.7	2.4	102.1	19%	47%

2. Rhode Island (13–5)

Rhode Island was a trendy pick as an A-10 contender and NCAA tournament sleeper team a year ago, but those hopes came crashing down when star guard E.C. Matthews tore his ACL 10 minutes into the season opener. Matthews is now healthy, and an experienced team surrounds him: Each of our seven top projected scorers for the Rams is an upperclassman.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
E.C. Matthews	Sr	SG	15.3	4.1	2.0	109.2	24%	79%
Jared Terrell	Jr	PG/SG	13.9	3.5	2.6	109.2	22%	85%
Hassan Martin	Sr	PF/C	13.0	6.6	0.9	113.6	22%	73%
Jarvis Garrett	Jr	PG	12.1	3.3	4.4	108.4	22%	82%
Kuran Iverson	Sr	SF/PF	9.6	7.5	1.7	109.2	18%	73%
Andre Berry	Jr	PF	3.1	2.2	0.3	114.6	14%	27%
Stanford Robinson	Jr	SG	3.0	1.8	0.8	110.7	18%	29%

3. Dayton (13–5)

The Flyers are still reeling from the tragic death of 20-year-old center Steve McElvene in May. This year, Archie Miller will look to guide Dayton to the team’s fourth straight NCAA tournament with four seniors as his top scorers. Wing Charles Cooke is a projected first-team All A-10 player.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Charles Cooke	Sr	SG	15.4	5.6	1.8	110.9	24%	79%
Scoochie Smith	Sr	PG	12.7	3.7	4.5	113.1	21%	81%
Kendall Pollard	Sr	PF	11.7	5.4	1.4	102.6	23%	68%
Kyle Davis	Sr	PG	9.4	3.4	2.4	114.3	17%	69%
Josh Cunningham	So	PF	7.1	5.2	0.7	103.4	19%	51%
Darrell Davis	Jr	SG	6.4	2.4	1.2	100.8	19%	47%
Xeyrius Williams	So	SF	4.7	3.4	0.6	106.1	15%	43%

4. Davidson (11–7)

Bob McKillop has assembled a roster comprised of players from seven different countries and three continents, but the most important of them will no doubt be Ohio native Jack Gibbs. Stretch four Peyton Aldridge will benefit from a substantially healthier frontcourt alongside him this season.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Jack Gibbs	Sr	PG	23.6	3.7	5.0	112.2	34%	87%
Peyton Aldridge	Jr	PF	16.0	6.7	2.2	122.9	21%	87%
Jordan Watkins	Jr	SG	10.8	3.3	2.0	110.3	17%	80%
Nathan Ekwu	Jr	PF	6.2	6.1	0.9	113.5	17%	55%
William Magarity	Jr	PF/C	5.5	3.6	0.5	104.1	20%	40%
Oskar Michelsen	Jr	SF	4.9	2.3	1.1	112.8	14%	45%
Rusty Reigel	Jr	SG	3.8	2.3	1.3	105.1	12%	49%

5. Richmond (10–8)

The Spiders posted the worst conference record in coach Chris Mooney’s 11-year tenure last season. Thanks to seniors T.J. Cline and ShawnDre’ Jones, Richmond seems like a safe bet to move back above .500 in the league, but an at-large NCAA tournament bid is a shakier prospect.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
T.J. Cline	Sr	PF	19.6	6.3	3.5	116.6	29%	80%
ShawnDre' Jones	Sr	PG	15.3	2.0	3.5	116.1	22%	87%
Marshall Wood	Sr	PF	10.0	5.2	0.7	110.8	17%	65%
Khwan Fore	So	PG	9.9	3.7	2.5	110.7	18%	73%
Grant Golden	Fr	PF/C	5.8	4.0	0.5	99.6	18%	46%
De'Monte Buckingham	Fr	SG	5.7	2.3	1.0	101.7	18%	44%
Nick Sherod	Fr	SG	5.7	2.3	1.0	101.7	18%	44%

6. George Washington (10–8)

The Colonials fired coach Mike Lonergan in the middle of September over allegations of verbal and emotional abuse and replaced him with assistant Maurice Joseph in an interim role. Joseph will rely heavily on Tyler Cavanaugh, who was the leading scorer on last year’s NIT championship team, and Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Tyler Cavanaugh	Sr	PF	16.7	7.7	1.3	113.8	25%	79%
Yuta Watanabe	Jr	SF	11.0	4.9	1.4	109.2	20%	72%
Matthew Hart	Sr	SG	10.6	3.2	1.2	114.5	18%	64%
Jaren Sina	Jr	PG	9.9	2.9	2.7	105.1	20%	75%
Patrick Steeves	Jr	SF	7.1	3.6	1.7	100.7	21%	49%
Kevin Marfo	Fr	PF	7.0	4.4	0.5	97.8	20%	51%
Jordan Roland	So	SG	6.6	2.5	1.1	95.2	18%	59%

Joe Robbins/Getty

7. St. Bonaventure (9–9)

The Bonnies were one of the most high-profile NCAA tournament snubs in 2015–16, but it doesn’t look from the outset of this season that they’ll get revenge on the selection committee. Jaylen Adams, who was second in the A-10 in assists and eighth in points last year, is the unquestioned leader entering his junior season.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Jaylen Adams	Jr	PG	17.6	3.7	5.2	121.8	23%	94%
Matt Mobley	Jr	SG	14.0	3.2	1.8	107.3	23%	75%
Denzel Gregg	Sr	SF	10.7	6.1	1.2	107.9	21%	68%
David Andoh	Sr	PF	8.9	5.1	0.6	99.3	23%	55%
Chinonso Obokoh	Sr	C	7.6	5.1	0.6	100.9	19%	56%
Idris Taqqee	Jr	SG	6.3	4.2	1.5	113.8	13%	68%
Courtney Stockard	Jr	SF	4.9	2.5	0.5	104.6	20%	32%

8. Saint Joseph’s (8–10)

Juniors James Demery and Shavar Newkirk were the top non-senior scorers last season, but they have big shoes to fill. Another A-10 tournament championship seems unlikely without NBA first-round pick DeAndre Bembry or 18-points-a-game forward Isaiah Miles. Phil Martelli is a patient and proven rebuilder, though, and the Hawks will be back sooner rather than later.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
James Demery	Jr	SF	14.1	6.1	1.2	106.6	21%	86%
Shavar Newkirk	Jr	PG	12.7	3.7	4.2	96.9	23%	89%
Lamarr Kimble	So	PG	11.9	3.2	4.2	105.1	22%	80%
Charles Brown Jr.	Fr	SF	6.9	3.6	0.8	95.8	20%	50%
Chris Clover	So	SG	6.1	2.4	1.1	99.2	19%	45%
Javon Baumann	Sr	PF	5.5	4.6	0.6	101.5	15%	52%
Lorenzo Edwards	Fr	PF	4.9	2.1	0.5	94.1	18%	40%

9. La Salle (8–10)

The leading returning scorer in the city of Philadelphia is Jordan Price, who averaged 19.2 points a game last season for the Explorers. He’s scored more than 1,000 points since transferring to La Salle after a season at Auburn, and we project him to improve on last season’s numbers and finish among the top five scorers nationally.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Jordan Price	Sr	SG	19.6	5.2	2.9	102.8	30%	91%
Cleon Roberts	Sr	SF	12.8	4.0	1.5	107.0	19%	90%
Johnnie Shuler	Jr	PG	7.4	2.3	2.1	100.3	18%	65%
Tony Washington	Jr	PF/C	7.1	6.3	0.7	110.2	15%	62%
Demetrius Henry	Jr	FC	6.2	3.5	0.4	103.5	19%	43%
Yevgen Sakhniuk	Jr	SF/PF	5.8	2.6	0.8	102.9	22%	35%
Amar Stukes	Jr	PG	4.4	1.7	2.2	98.6	15%	56%

10. Massachusetts (8–10)

After a steady rise during Derek Kellogg’s first six seasons at the helm, culminating in an NCAA tournament appearance in 2014, the Minutemen have regressed. Although Donte Clark seems capable of bearing a heavy offensive load, he alone can’t carry UMass back to the Big Dance.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Donte Clark	Jr	SG	17.5	4.3	2.6	106.9	26%	82%
DeJon Jarreau	Fr	PG	9.6	1.8	3.1	101.6	19%	72%
Rashaan Holloway	So	PF/C	9.3	5.3	0.5	98.5	25%	51%
Seth Berger	Jr	SF/PF	8.7	5.1	0.9	108.2	16%	67%
Zach Lewis	Jr	SG	8.6	2.4	1.3	100.9	22%	51%
LuWane Pipkins	Fr	PG	5.5	1.3	1.8	101.5	19%	42%
Zach Coleman	Jr	SF/PF	4.8	4.4	1.1	97.7	18%	47%

11. Fordham (7–11)

The Rams showed significant strides in Jeff Neubauer’s first year as head coach. Neubauer will reunite with 6' 5" wing JaVontae Hawkins, whom he acquired as a transfer at Eastern Kentucky before leaving for the Fordham job. Hawkins should continue to be a high-efficiency, high-volume shooter for the Rams, but our projections don’t think he’ll keep up his 17-points-a-game pace.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Javontae Hawkins	Sr	SG	12.8	3.6	1.7	107.0	25%	66%
Christian Sengfelder	Jr	PF	11.8	6.0	1.1	115.0	18%	78%
Joseph Chartouny	So	PG	11.0	4.6	5.1	108.4	23%	77%
Antwoine Anderson	Jr	PG	7.9	2.0	2.5	101.8	22%	54%
David Pekarek	So	SF	6.9	2.9	0.8	96.9	19%	50%
Prokop Slanina	Jr	C	5.6	3.6	0.4	102.9	19%	40%
Will Tavares	Jr	SG	5.0	2.2	0.9	102.9	19%	35%

12. George Mason (6–12)

Dave Paulsen’s first year with the Patriots was technically an improvement, but an 11–21 (5–13) record is rarely considered comforting. Paulsen’s team will boast enviable depth in the backcourt, but size—only one player, Danny Dixon, in our projected top seven scorers is taller than 6' 8"—will be a significant challenge.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Otis Livingston II	So	PG	12.3	2.9	3.4	105.4	21%	81%
Marquise Moore	Sr	PG	11.5	5.0	3.1	101.1	23%	75%
Jaire Grayer	So	SG	10.3	4.1	1.2	100.2	20%	69%
Jalen Jenkins	Sr	SF/PF	8.5	6.1	1.0	105.4	22%	56%
DeAndre Abram	So	SF	7.6	3.6	0.5	101.3	20%	51%
A.J. Wilson	Fr	SF	5.4	3.1	0.6	99.8	19%	40%
Danny Dixon	So	PF	4.5	4.6	0.8	100.3	15%	50%

13. Duquesne (5–13)

Although Blackman is likely to earn plenty of individual honors, he can’t replace the sheer amount of talent that coach Jim Ferry lost in the off-season. Gone are the top three scorers: guards Micah Mason and Derrick Colter and forward L.G. Gill (who transferred to Maryland). With so much roster turnover, the Dukes could struggle to address their area of biggest weakness: defense.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Emile Blackman	Sr	SG	16.5	4.7	1.7	104.0	23%	88%
Kale Abrahamson	Sr	SF	12.3	5.2	1.1	105.8	21%	70%
Eric James	Jr	SF	12.2	5.8	1.6	106.6	22%	73%
Darius Lewis	Sr	C	7.5	5.6	0.7	103.5	19%	53%
Jordan Robinson	Jr	C	6.7	4.4	0.6	108.3	21%	41%
Tarin Smith	So	PG	6.6	2.6	1.9	99.4	16%	55%
Josh Steel	So	SG/PG	5.6	2.3	1.7	106.8	16%	45%

14. Saint Louis (5–13)

Travis Ford returns to the A-10, where he helmed UMass from 2006 to ’08. Our projections expect a big scoring leaps from senior guard Mike Crawford and sophomore guard Jermaine Bishop, but ultimately the pieces Ford will need to turn around the Billikens aren’t on the current roster.

Name	Class	Pos.	PPG	RPG	APG	ORtg	Volume	Mins
Mike Crawford	Sr	SG	15.2	4.1	1.7	105.8	21%	87%
Jermaine Bishop	So	PG	14.3	3.2	3.5	99.5	25%	79%
Davell Roby	Jr	SG	10.8	3.8	2.4	101.3	20%	75%
Reggie Agbeko	Sr	PF	8.7	7.2	0.4	102.5	17%	69%
Jalen Johnson	Fr	SF	6.8	3.5	0.8	98.9	19%	48%
Austin Gillmann	Jr	C	4.5	3.0	1.0	103.2	15%	43%
Zeke Moore	Fr	SF	4.2	2.2	0.5	96.2	19%	32%