Top 10 Preseason Candidates for 2022–23 Men’s National Player of the Year

Can Oscar Tshiebwe pull off the rare feat of winning it two years in a row?

A new college basketball season kicks off on Nov. 7, and with it will come both old and new faces who rise into the spotlight. By the end of the season, one name will rise above the rest and capture the National Player of the Year award. In the meantime, here’s our look at where the race stands in the preseason, led by the reigning winner.

1. Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky

It’s not often the consensus men’s National Player of the Year returns to college for more, but here we are. And considering how hard Tshiebwe plays and the physical advantage he’ll enjoy yet again, repeating last year’s averages of 17 points and 15 rebounds may not be that difficult. The harder part may be recapturing the imagination of voters—the last back-to-back men’s Wooden winner was Ralph Sampson in 1982 and ’83—but that’s more an obvious byproduct of players headed to the pros early than a glaring lack of precedent. Tshiebwe should have even better service with freshman Cason Wallace on board at Kentucky to help distribute the ball, as well.

Even with reigning winner Tshiebwe (middle) back, the NPOY race figures to be a competitive one :: Kirthmon F. Dozier, Nelson Chenault, Mitchell Leff/USA TODAY Sports

2. Drew Timme, Gonzaga

Timme held the top spot on this list last preseason, and there’s even more room for him to dominate as Gonzaga transitions in a less experienced supporting cast around him. He should be the first and second option for the Zags, and has proven to be a foul-drawing post-up machine. Whether Timme can expand his game at all is the big question: He’s still not a great jump shooter and a subpar defender, particularly when Gonzaga plays better competition. But we can say with some certainty that the case for Timme will be there in the end.

3. Armando Bacot, North Carolina

Bacot finally got his due after a huge March run helped spur the Tar Heels to the national title game. And the counting stats should absolutely be there again, although the arrival of Northwestern transfer Pete Nance may slightly diminish Bacot’s impressive output. Regardless, this is a highly productive player returning to very familiar surroundings; expect more of the same. He’s an automatic double double at the college level.

4. Marcus Sasser, Houston

Sasser played only 12 games last season before injuring his toe, and returns as one of the best guards in college basketball and the leader of a loaded Houston team. He may not be a full-time point guard this season, and he’ll probably want to live inside the paint a little more, but Sasser is a talented shotmaker with the chops to capture the national spotlight. The Cougars have tended to operate by committee on offense, but regardless, their likely team success should positively fuel the narrative surrounding Sasser’s return.

5. Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas

This doesn’t feel like a year where a freshman wins the award, but my best hedge on that would be Smith, who probably has the best combination of high-end performance potential and optimal situation to make it happen. He’s a projected top-five NBA draft pick headed into the season for good reason, and he’ll have the freedom at Arkansas to push the pace and make plays for teammates. Smith should be one of the more exciting players to watch this season, at bare minimum.

6. Hunter Dickinson, Michigan

Dickinson took on added usage last season while maintaining his efficiency, improving his passing and adding a three-ball. The question is what the next step looks like for someone who’s shot 60% on twos in consecutive years. Greater team success at Michigan would likely shift more of the spotlight toward Dickinson, whose role as an offensive focal point may increase yet again.

7. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

Jackson-Davis returns for his senior year as a proven producer, albeit not one who consistently dictates the outcome of games. Still, there’s a chance he has a huge season, particularly if he can hit the double-double averages that have thus far eluded him and improve his free throw percentage incrementally. He hasn’t expanded his game all that much in college, but he’s plenty effective as is.

8. Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA

I was personally a little too bullish on Jaquez breaking out a year ago, but checkered health interfered with his season, and he returns to lead the Bruins again. Here’s hoping better luck and some improved shooting leads to a breakout year for one of the toughest players in the country. With Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard gone, the opportunity is very much present.

9. Zach Edey, Purdue

I’m not entirely convinced Edey has a massive jump in store, but with Jaden Ivey gone you have to think his opportunities will increase. He’s super efficient inside five feet and not very useful anywhere else on the floor, but if he can make enough free throws and expand his game a little, a 20 point-per-game breakout year could be within reach.

10. Adam Flagler, Baylor

It feels like someone from Baylor deserves to be on this list. The experienced Flagler returns with a larger say in the Bears’ backcourt operation. He’s someone who could thrive in a true leading role for the first time since his freshman year at Presbyterian, although he’ll still share on-ball duties with LJ Cryer and Keyonte George as part of a formidable group.