Preseason Bracketology: SI’s Way-Too-Early Men’s NCAA Tournament Field

Our first edition of 2022–23 Bracket Watch picks out the 68 teams we think will go dancing in March.

Welcome to the 2022–23 college basketball season! The journey to Selection Sunday begins Monday, as teams begin the four-month process of making themselves stand out to the selection committee in hopes of putting on their dancing shoes in March.

Putting together a projected bracket is usually all about a team’s résumé. But for this preseason edition of Bracket Watch, we build our projected field based on Sports Illustrated’s national men’s rankings. The autobid selections are the same ones we picked to win each league, and the 36 at-larges go to the 36 highest-ranked teams in our 1–363 rankings that weren’t assigned an autobid.

Here’s a look at what the field of 68 looks like before the ball is tipped.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: 

Florida State 
Oklahoma
Wyoming 
Oklahoma State

Last Four In:

Saint Mary’s 
LSU 
USC
St. John’s

First Four Out:

Iowa State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Notre Dame 

Next Four Out:

Rutgers
VCU
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin 

After spending much of last season sweating on the bubble before eventually going dancing in the First Four, Wyoming could find itself in a similar situation this year. The return of stars Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike, along with the addition of three Pac-12 transfers, could help the Cowboys get some March security.

Our first team out is Iowa State, which came in at No. 48 in SI’s national rankings. The Cyclones went to the Sweet 16 in T.J. Otzelberger’s first season but lost star guard Tyrese Hunter to the portal, and potential replacement Jeremiah Williams went down in the preseason with a season-ending injury. Freshman Tamin Lipsey will be one of the more critical first-year players in the country this season.

* = team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid

East Region

No. 1 North Carolina* vs. No. 16 Sacred Heart*/UT Martin*
No. 8 Saint Louis vs. No. 9 Michigan State
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 New Mexico State*
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Towson*
No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Wyoming
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Iona*
No. 7. Virginia vs. No. 10 Oklahoma
No. 2 Creighton* vs. No. 15 Princeton*

North Carolina is the No. 1 team in SI’s national rankings, so it gets the nod for the No. 1 overall seed in our preseason bracketology. The Tar Heels return four starters from last year’s team that came up just short of a national championship, so this group is certainly battle-tested. The Heels open the season with four straight home games against mid-major opponents before heading to Portland for the PK85 event that could pair them with the likes of Villanova, Michigan State, Alabama and Oregon.

Creighton has never made a Final Four. Is this the year? There’s a strong case to be made that this is the program’s most talented roster ever, but we’ll see whether the young Bluejays who were thrust into action last season make the leap many expect them to. Their first big test: a matchup with Texas Tech at the Maui Invitational.

South Region

No. 1 Kentucky* vs. No. 16 Youngstown State*
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Purdue
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Drake*
No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 South Dakota State*
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 UAB*
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7. Providence vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Winthrop*

The South Regional being played in Louisville will almost certainly be a topic of discussion all season long for Kentucky fans, who without a doubt would love to see their team punch a ticket to the Final Four in its home state.

New coaches at Duke (Jon Scheyer) and Villanova (Kyle Neptune) have huge shoes to fill replacing their former bosses. Both will be tested in the season’s first month, with the Blue Devils and Wildcats participating in PK85 over Thanksgiving weekend. Duke also plays Kansas at the Champions Classic, while Villanova travels to Michigan State in the season’s second week. 

West Region

No. 1 Gonzaga* vs. No. 16 Texas Southern*/Nicholls State*
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 USC/St. John’s
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Furman*
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Oklahoma State
No. 3 UCLA* vs. No. 14 Liberty*
No. 7. Xavier vs. No. 10 Florida State
No. 2 Arkansas vs. No. 15 Montana State*

Pac-12 favorite UCLA comes in as a No. 3 seed in the preseason thanks to the return of Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr., Bruins stalwarts dating back to the team’s Final Four run in 2021. Next Friday’s showdown with Illinois, the projected No. 4 seed in this region, should be an instructive one.

Xavier earned the last spot in SI’s top 25 and a No. 7 seed in this projected bracket. The Musketeers have a chance to have immediate success under Sean Miller thanks to returning contributors like Colby Jones and Jack Nunge, but need steady point guard play from a combination of transfer Souley Boum and freshman Desmond Claude to challenge for a conference title.

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Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State*
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Miami
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 Toledo*
No. 4 San Diego State* vs. No. 13 Vermont*
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Saint Mary’s/LSU
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara*
No. 7. Florida vs. No. 10 Seton Hall
No. 2 Baylor* vs. No. 15 Louisiana*

The Final Four is in Houston this year, which could give Kelvin Sampson’s Houston a major edge should they get there. Houston has been underseeded in the past compared to its lofty computer metrics, including last season when it was given a No. 5 seed despite being fifth nationally in KenPom at the end of the regular season. That makes winning nonconference tests against Oregon, Alabama and Virginia critical if the Coogs want a No. 1 seed.

Another team that needs to make an impression in the nonconference slate is San Diego State, which came in at No. 14 in SI’s national rankings. The Mountain West provides some solid Quad 1 and Quad 2 opportunities, but getting a top-four seed requires doing work out of conference. With BYU, Stanford and Saint Mary’s on the docket as well as a trip to the loaded Maui Invitational, we’ll know early just how good this Aztecs team is.