2024 CFP Rose Bowl Quick Picks: Alabama Defense Tests a Polished Michigan Team

Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy will need to make big plays against an improved Crimson Tide squad.

The Granddaddy of ’em all returns one of its favorite grandchildren. For the first time since 2007, Michigan will play in the Rose Bowl against Alabama for a berth in the national championship game. It seems like an eternity for a team that has played in nearly 20% of all the Rose Bowls ever, including the first in 1902. The Wolverines’ 20 appearances are second all time.

Alabama beat Michigan, 35–16, the last time the two teams met, in the 2020 Citrus Bowl :: Mickey Welsh/Montgomery Advertiser/USA TODAY Network

For the Tide, they also have their own historic ties here. Their fight song mentions a Rose Bowl from the 1920s, and more recently, Alabama’s dynasty began in earnest with a win over Texas in 2009. So who wins this one, and more importantly, who covers? Here are our knee jerk picks from college football experts Richard Johnson and Pat Forde.

Last week: Forde 3–3, Johnson 3–3. Season: Forde 41-32-2, Johnson 39-34-2. Sign up for SI Sportsbook today.

Michigan (-2) vs. Alabama

Johnson: Alabama. When it comes down to it, I don’t think Michigan's wide receivers can stand up against a vaunted Alabama secondary. I actually think the Tide displayed the blueprint for this game on Saturday against Georgia, when Bama, as Kirby Smart said, “whipped’ the Dawgs up front. Because the Tide did that, Alabama was able to stay in two-high coverage and limit explosive passing plays. It may be up to Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy to make enough plays against the Bama defense to win the day. Can he? I’m not betting on it.

Forde: Michigan. As much as Alabama has improved, it has still needed its opponents to make big mistakes to win its last two games. The Crimson Tide needed Auburn to fumble a punt and then follow that up with a disastrous defensive scheme on fourth-and-31. They also needed Georgia to fumble a reverse deep in its own territory and doink a field goal off the upright after a pre-snap penalty. Guess who doesn’t do those things? Michigan. The Wolverines have committed two turnovers in their last 10 games, have been penalized fewer than three times per game this season and haven’t missed a kick since September.

I’m expecting this to be fairly low scoring, with both defenses making things hard on the dynamic quarterbacks in the game. Lost beneath the controversy of the season is this: Michigan is due to win a playoff game, having built its program to the point where it can take the next step and make the championship game.