Men’s Bracketology: Everything to Watch This Weekend for Teams on the Bubble

The Big East has a lot on the line this weekend while nearly every major conference boasts bubble battles.

The NCAA men’s tournament field is fewer than 10 days from being announced. This weekend marks, in many cases, the last chance for teams to make an impression on why they deserve a spot in this year’s field of 68. With a bubble picture that’s very crowded as things currently stand, we should learn plenty this weekend about which teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday.

Here’s a look at an updated projected cut line, as well as notes on what you should watch for this weekend from a bracketology standpoint.

The Bubble Picture (as of Friday)

Last Four Byes

Nebraska Cornhuskers
TCU Horned Frogs
Seton Hall Pirates
Villanova Wildcats

Last Four In

St. John’s Red Storm
Virginia Cavaliers
New Mexico Lobos
James Madison Dukes

First Four Out

Providence Friars
Colorado Buffaloes
Texas A&M Aggies
Iowa Hawkeyes 

Next Four Out

Utah Utes
Pittsburgh Panthers
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Memphis Tigers

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Any team not featured in this group that was in our projected field as of Tuesday can be considered a lock to go dancing. The Michigan State Spartans locked up their bid by beating the Northwestern Wildcats on Wednesday night, and the same goes for the Oklahoma Sooners with their Tuesday win over the Cincinnati Bearcats. The only team not listed that theoretically could miss the tournament is the Colorado State Rams, but it would require the Rams to lose Saturday against the Air Force Falcons and in the first round of the Mountain West tournament to either Air Force or the San Jose State Spartans.

Beyond that, Nebraska and TCU will appear in Sports Illustrated’s projected field on Selection Sunday regardless of how they finish the season. There’s a small chance each could miss the field if they lose out, but each could become locks with wins this weekend. Seton Hall would guarantee its spot in our projected field on Selection Sunday by beating the DePaul Blue Demons on Saturday, though the Pirates’ poor metrics keep them short of lock status.

It’s also worth noting that this projected cut line is built with projected automatic bids for the Richmond Spiders in the Atlantic 10 and the South Florida Bulls in the American Athletic Conference, neither of which would receive at-large bids should they slip up in their respective conference tournaments. If the Dayton Flyers (A-10) and Florida Atlantic Owls (AAC) with those conference tournaments, two more at-large bids become available, in this case going to Providence and Utah.

James Madison coach Mark Byington and the Dukes are projected as an at-large bid and one of the last four into the NCAA men’s tournament :: Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports

And, as noted in Tuesday’s bracket update, James Madison is included as an at-large. No team with more than 28 Division I wins has ever been left out of the field, a threshold JMU can match with two wins at the Sun Belt tournament. The Dukes would be a controversial selection should they lose a third time to the Appalachian State Mountaineers, but regardless, bubble teams should be rooting for JMU to win the Sun Belt tournament to remove it from the at-large picture. Similarly, since the Indiana State Sycamores have a better at-large case than the Drake Bulldogs, bubble fans should hope the Sycamores hold serve and win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament.

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Notable Bubble Games This Weekend

Georgetown Hoyas at St. John’s Red Storm, March 9, 12 p.m. ET

Virtually everything has gone right for the Red Storm’s NCAA tournament hopes during a four-game winning streak. Rick Pitino’s team could spoil almost all of their built-up goodwill by losing to the lowly Hoyas. Winning this one wouldn’t lock it into the field, but it’s possible SJU could dance even if it went one-and-done in the Big East tournament.

Memphis Tigers at Florida Atlantic Owls, March 9, 12 p.m. ET

For Memphis to have any chance at going dancing without winning the AAC tournament, the Tigers need to win this game and complete the season sweep of FAU. Memphis has played well lately, but may have dug itself too deep of a hole during its midseason swoon that featured losses to the Tulane Green Wave, UAB Blazers and at home to the Rice Owls.

Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels, March 9, 2 p.m. ET

This game essentially functions as an elimination game. Texas A&M would need a very deep run in the SEC tournament if the Aggies can’t win at Ole Miss on Saturday as the Aggies attempt to overcome an unsightly 2–4 mark against Quad 3 opponents. Meanwhile, if it wasn’t already, Ole Miss would be in automatic-bid-or-bust mode without a win here.

Creighton Bluejays at Villanova Wildcats, March 9, 2:30 p.m. ET

Villanova just hasn’t been able to solidify its place in the field. With a neutral-court win over the North Carolina Tar Heels and a road win at Creighton, quality wins aren’t the problem, and neither are the Wildcats’ strong performance metrics. But with three Quad 3 losses and 13 losses overall, Villanova still sits precariously on the bubble. A second win this season over the Bluejays would probably be enough to lock in the Wildcats, assuming they don’t lose to DePaul in the Big East tournament. With a loss, Villanova would finish the regular season just 17–14 and would likely have to win two games in the Big East tournament to get in.

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Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks, March 9, 7 p.m. ET

Utah has won just once away from home in Pac-12 play this season, with the latest disaster a road defeat at lowly Oregon State on Thursday night that moved the Utes even further from a spot in the Dance. A Quad 1 win over the Ducks would help swing the momentum back and at least give Utah a shot at an at-large bid heading into the Pac-12 tournament. 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers, March 9, 8 p.m. ET

Virginia hasn’t passed the eye test often lately, but the Cavaliers’ résumé is still strong enough to be in the field as things currently stand. That could change, though, if they can’t take care of business against Georgia Tech at home, which would qualify as UVA’s first Quad 3 loss of the season. The problem: The Yellow Jackets have played best against top competition, with wins this season over the Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina and on the road at the Clemson Tigers and Wake Forest.

UConn Huskies at Providence Friars, March 9, 8 p.m. ET

You couldn’t ask for a much better opportunity to solidify your place in the NCAA tournament than the chance Providence gets Saturday night against Big East champion UConn. It’s simple for the Friars: Win, and Providence is going dancing in Kim English’s first season. English’s team actually hung around most of the way on the road at UConn earlier this season, and this time around gets a raucous home crowd on its side.

New Mexico Lobos at Utah State Aggies, March 9, 8:30 p.m. ET

New Mexico has been teetering around the cut line since its disastrous loss to Air Force late in February. The Lobos snuck back into our projected field thanks to poor results for other bubble teams this week, but it’d be hard to feel confident in UNM’s chances without adding one more big win to its résumé before Selection Sunday. A road win here would certainly qualify. The Lobos ran up 99 points in the season’s first meeting, but it’s incredibly difficult to win in Logan, Utah, and Utah State has won six of its last seven.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes, March 10, 7 p.m. ET

With recent road wins at Michigan State and Northwestern, Iowa is making a last-ditch push for the Big Dance. The Hawkeyes had plenty of ground to make up, but another big win, this time over a top-20 team in the NET, would be a big step toward hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. Without a win here, it would take a deep run in the Big Ten tournament for the Hawkeyes to receive serious consideration.

Other Bracket Notes

• The Tennessee Volunteers can strengthen their hold on the fourth No. 1 seed with a win over the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. A loss opens the door for the Arizona Wildcats or North Carolina to move past them.
• Duke needs a win against North Carolina on Saturday to strengthen its case for a No. 2 seed. Without one, the Blue Devils seem likely to land on the No. 3 line.
• The Kansas Jayhawks likely have too many losses to push for a No. 1 seed, but it’d be hard to knock the Jayhawks off the No. 2 line if they win at the Houston Cougars this weekend. The Cougars, on the other hand, should be a No. 1 regardless of how they finish.
• The Marquette Golden Eagles may get some grace for not having Tyler Kolek, but a road loss to the Xavier Musketeers wouldn’t be ideal for the Golden Eagles’ hopes of landing on the No. 2 line. A loss could knock them down to a No. 3.
• The Baylor Bears have been hot of late, winning three straight after Monday’s comeback win over the Texas Longhorns. A road win at the Texas Tech Red Raiders to close out the regular season would be another feather in the Bears’ cap and help them continue to push up the seed list.