Postseason Light Flickers for Hogs

NCAA tourney still possible for Arkansas, but NIT pretty much out of the cards for Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – This Arkansas basketball team is infuriating. 

That's because there is no way to categorize it and be right. One moment the Razorbacks are falling apart, entirely unable to muster enough cohesion to take down anyone in the Top 215. Then, they turn around and either beat or push to the limit national title contenders 

There's no rhyme or reason to it. Out of nowhere, they will suddenly play defense and frustrate their opponents to no end. Shots will fall left and right. Then they will come out the next night and look like they're pouting and simply move aside so other teams can score at will while struggling to draw rim. 

All season Razorbacks fans have had to float between a team that could barely squeak into the NIT and one that can bring the program a second national championship. It might be the one characteristic that has ticked off the fan base the most because they know once heads are removed from bodily evacuation areas, this team is among the best to lace them up this season. It's this unwillingness to realize potential that finally made most give up and either take advantage of an early spring to go fishing or move on to another sport.

The reality is the numbers are against this team even making the NIT. There are a number of things in the way of that happening. 

The first, and most obvious, is the bare minimum number of wins to get in is 16. The opportunities squandered in this regard are insane. It almost takes effort to lose to a 7-win Vanderbilt at home this late in the season.

A second issue is the new guidelines for NIT selection. The SEC gets two guaranteed spots under a new rule that says the two highest ranked teams in the NET from each of the basketball Power 6 conferences (think football's Power Five and add the Big East) get automatic bids.

Beyond that, the odds are slim because they try to work in the other conferences if possible. Even without the rule, the SEC only got a pair of teams in last season. 

Vanderbilt got in with a NET in the low 80s and had 20 wins heading into the NIT. Clearly, Arkansas isn't getting to 20 wins. If a crooked number leads off the numeral in the win column, the Hogs are on an unlikely miracle run to the NCAA Tournament.

Meanwhile, Florida got in at 16-16 last year. However, the Gators had a NET of 62 going into the NIT. That's a number Arkansas isn't going to touch. 

Right now, the automatic bids would go to Ole Miss at No. 78 and LSU at No. 88. Georgia is the next highest at 103, and Arkansas comes dragging a distant fourth at 121.

The loss to Vanderbilt is really killing Arkansas. All the other losses are to Top 100 teams, including UNC-Greensboro. However, the Commodores are at No. 221. Even more depressing for Hogs fans is Vandy was No. 215 before beating the Razorbacks in Bud Walton.

Generally, in most years, if Arkansas could simply win a few games and draw that NET ranking closer to double digits, the Razorbacks would make it in simply because ESPN needs ratings for games most people wouldn't watch and solid ticket sales. The problem with that is the Hogs' improvement has come in front of a mostly empty, often cavernous library-like Bud Walton Arena. 

A lot of these smaller schools are getting more backsides in seats and a crazier atmosphere and have that "happy to be there" energy about them that will make their fan bases tune in to watch. Conference baseball starts in two Saturdays and crappie and catfish start biting heavily next week while bass start moving onto their spawning beds. It's going to be hard to hook Arkansas fans on a rematch with a Lipscomb team the Hogs only beat by three earlier in the year.

Plus, who's to say the Razorbacks would even accept the invitation? Arkansas coach Eric Musselman has a lot of pride. This team has shown a lot of improvement as of late, but one has to wonder whether he is ready to move on so he can start trying to drum up the NIL money needed to rebuild next season's team with an early, fully focused jump on the transfer portal. 

There's also a question as to whether most of these players are ready to be done also. The effort is there for a push at winning the SEC Tournament to see what damage can be done with a Cinderella bid, but beyond that, how much motivation is there to go after an NIT championship in an empty arena?

Of course, Arkansas fans will likely never know. It will take a run to the SEC championship game to get genuine consideration for the NIT. If the tournament were played today, the Razorbacks would face that Vanderbilt team that just made them look helpless in the second half at home. 

Should the Hogs get revenge for that loss, the path forward would require wins over the Florida Gators and then the South Carolina Gamecocks. At that point, the Razorbacks most likely face Alabama before taking on either Tennessee, Kentucky or Auburn.

Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee and Auburn beat Arkansas by a combined 98 points. That's an average of almost 25 points per game. That's Disney's "Air Bud" level of suspended disbelief needed to picture that playing out.

So, with the NIT pretty well locked down as out of the question, the future for the few Razorbacks fans still hanging on has two remaining paths. That miracle run to an SEC championship and weeks upon weeks of wondering who will be on the court in Fayetteville next season, including Musselman.

Right now, there's no reason to believe he won't be back. But, then again, fans really hurt themselves with social media antics and the slow start to the Arkansas Edge NIL collective isn't helping. 

Much like with  his players, no one will feel comfortable until Musselman puts out a video saying he's back. Even then, fans will be gun shy about fully buying into the announcement after how things went down last year when Derrian Ford announced he was coming back while riding a horse north out of Magnolia.

The next five months are going to be adventurous around the Razorbacks basketball program. It just won't be because of the NIT.

HOG FEED:

• Newest Hogs make jersey number choices, few of which are rather unique

• Offensive lineman announces he will make official visit to Arkansas

• Razorbacks' two-strike challenge making life miserable for opposition

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