LOOK: Computer model favors Auburn, Hugh Freeze over Georgia Bulldogs

Could Auburn shock the world this weekend and upset Georgia?

Author:
Lance Dawe
Publish date:
Sep 24, 2023 6:55 PM EDT

In this story:

Betting lines currently favor Georgia over Auburn this weekend by about 14 points.

Considering the Tigers' disappointing offensive performance against Texas A&M this weekend, the line makes sense. The Bulldogs' talent in the trenches alone should aid them in a road victory on The Plains.

However, there's a computer model out there that currently disagrees.

College Football Nerds, an excellent YouTube channel that does a phenomenal job analyzing and breaking down not only just college football as a whole, but individual matchups through numbers, has a computer model that they rely on to help predict games as the season goes on.

The channel puts an emphasis on waiting until later in the schedule to truly listen to what the model has to say about big games, as the larger sample size allows the model to provide more accurate results.

We are just a few weeks into the season and the model has a shocking projection for week five.

It believes Auburn will beat Georgia this weekend.

According to the model, the Tigers are favored to win 30.7 to 30.6. The fact that it's even close to a 50/50 matchup is surprising.

Why is this the case? CFB Nerds explained in a tweet:

- Georgia is yet to allow 3.5 yards/carry in FBS play, but

- Every opponent set their FBS season high in rushing vs Georgia

So therefore, Georgia's opponents are *so* bad, that dominating them appears below-average defensively.

Auburn has had pretty solid success running the football this season, whether it be with their stable of running backs, or with QB Payton Thorne romping for over 120 yards against Samford.

Even though the model is drunk on Georgia's opponents having "success" in the running game (even though not only have they not averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry against the Bulldogs, none of them have eclipsed 29 rushing attempts, which wouldn't even be top 100 in FBS) could we see the Tigers' running game keep them close with Georgia this weekend?

It seems unlikely.

Auburn has yet to figure out their passing attack and the A&M game was proof. If Thorne, Robby Ashford, or even Holden Geriner can't throw the football underneath Philip Montgomery's play calling, should there be an expectation for the Tigers to have any success on the ground against a strong Georgia front?

We will see.

Auburn faces off against Georgia in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry this Saturday at 2:30 pm on CBS.