One bold prediction for every SEC West team in 2022

Here is one bold prediction for every team in the toughest division in college football.

It's never too early for some bold predictions.

Last season, I threw out one bold prediction for every SEC team. I got six right.

* Georgia beats Clemson, loses in the SEC championship game, and still makes the playoff

* Arkansas goes bowling, beats A&M

* Texas A&M beats Alabama but doesn't win the SEC West

* Alabama loses to Texas A&M for the first time since 2012

* Emory Jones gets benched

* Kentucky finishes 2nd in the East

I may never have a better bold prediction than A&M defeating Alabama while simultaneously losing to Arkansas a couple of weeks before.

This season feels a little more unpredictable. Sure, last year featured a variety of wild upsets, twists, and a Cincinnati playoff berth, but something about 2022 tells me we're going to get some shockers, including within the Southeastern Conference.

Here is one bold prediction for every SEC West team heading into the 2022 season.

Alabama's offense finishes outside of the top three in the SEC

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The last time the Crimson Tide finished fourth or worse in the SEC in total yards per game was 2017 (fourth, 444.1 YPG). The last time Alabama finished forth or worse in points per game was 2015 (fifth, 35.1 PPG).

Alabama will finish outside the top three in one of those two categories. With the departure of receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie, Alabama will ask an inexperienced core of pass catchers (which, granted, does have Jermaine Burton) to grow up quickly.

The 2021 ground game (150 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry) was statistically the worst Nick Saban has had since his first season at Bama. Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs will be a breath of fresh air in the backfield, but the offensive line could hold him back. No returning offensive lineman for Alabama has a PFF grade higher than 73.2 (Backup center Seth McLaughlin, who also had a 52.9 pass block grade). The o-line also gave up 41 sacks (120th nationally).

The redeeming factor for the Crimson Tide offense clearly Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young, who should once again carry this unit. I expect to see a step back from the Tide regardless.

Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Arkansas are all teams that could potentially outproduce Alabama's points and yardage output.

Arkansas finishes the first half of the season 5-1

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I'd love to predict an Arkansas win over Alabama, but unfortunately I've got another team knocking off the Crimson Tide.

The return of quarterback KJ Jefferson is huge. Barring injury, the Razorbacks should be very solid offensively. Four starters return on an offensive line that helped produce the seventh best rushing attack in the country (227.8 YPG). Despite questions at receiver, all four of Arkansas' projected top targets are 6'2" or taller. An offense that was 25th nationally in explosiveness in 2021 might be even better in 2022.

Only four total starters return on the defensive side of the ball, but the Hogs hit the transfer portal to help fill some holes. Five-star linebacker Drew Sanders (Alabama) and four-star corner Dwight McGlothern (LSU) were huge pickups for Barry Odom's defense.

Arkansas' first six games of the season are as follows:

Sept. 3rd vs Cincinatti

Sept. 10th vs South Carolina

Sept. 17th vs Missouri State

Sept. 24th vs Texas A&M (Arlington, TX)

Oct. 1 vs Alabama

Oct. 8th at Mississippi State

I won't be predicting specific games, but I will be predicting a 5-1 record through the first half of the schedule. Cincinnati, a playoff team last season, lost nine players to the NFL Draft, including quarterback Desmond Ridder. South Carolina is retooling with Shane Beamer and will be a formidable opponent in week two. I'd give the nod to Arkansas at home.

Missouri State did take Oklahoma State down to the wire last season, but I doubt they do the same to the Hogs. Arkansas beat Texas A&M last season, and this contest in 2022 should once again be competitive. Alabama beat Arkansas by seven points in Tuscaloosa last year. The Hogs edged past MSU in 2021. This final game against the Bulldogs is the one that gives me the most pause, because Arkansas could be 4-1 heading into this game and the defense could lay an egg.

Auburn wins nine games, retains Bryan Harsin

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Sometimes it feels like preseason magazines and media outlets groupthink their way into predictions.

If you look at Auburn's 2021 results on the surface, revisit what happened between Bryan Harsin and the boosters in spring, and briefly look at the quarterback situation, it is easy to come away with the conclusion that the Tigers are in a bad spot. 6-6 with Harsin getting the boot seems to be the unanimous projection.

Dig into the 2021 results a little more, and it is easy to come to the conclusion that Auburn was actually better than their record indicated. Had some key moments gone their way during the final five contests of the season they would have won eight or nine games. The trenches are improved. The staff is a year older. The cancer within the program seems to have been shed. Things are moving in the right direction.

Still, a lot of things start and end with quarterback for Auburn.

In order to meet this prediction, I believe Auburn needs a quarterback with a high floor and a low-to-middle ceiling. Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada is that quarterback. Tank Bigsby is going to be crucial for Auburn in conference play. The defensive line as an entire unit is the best it has been in several years.

Five wins to start the season would be ideal. Games against Mercer, San Jose State, and Missouri seem like games Auburn should win. Penn State and LSU are the contests of concern, but I believe the Tigers (at Jordan-Hare Stadium) to be better than both of those teams. Georgia looks like a loss.

Ole Miss will be tough, but winnable... especially if the Rebels' defense takes a step back. Arkansas on paper doesn't have enough firepower to beat Auburn on the road. That was proven last season in Fayetteville. The Mississippi State game will probably take a few years off of fans' lives, but is winnable. Texas A&M didn't score an offensive touchdown against Auburn last season and is also 98th nationally in returning production. Western Kentucky should be a win, Alabama should be a loss.

Right now, if I'm sticking to this bold prediction, I feel comfortable saying Auburn loses to Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama, and defeats everyone else.

LSU doesn't win a game in November

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Last season I predicted Missouri to go through November winless, and those Tigers went 2-2. LSU will probably find a win in the final month of the regular season, but this is still a fun prediction to throw out there.

Nov. 5th vs Alabama

Nov. 12th at Arkansas

Nov. 19th vs UAB

Nov. 26th vs Texas A&M

This is a pretty bold projection on paper if we're considering last year's results. Alabama edged past LSU 20-14 in Tuscaloosa, Arkansas beat the Tigers 16-13 in Death Valley, and in Ed Orgeron's final game with the program LSU defeated Texas A&M 27-24.

However, it's really difficult to base much of what 2022 LSU does off of last season considering there was only one staff holdover by Brian Kelly. Scheme is probably going to look very different. Personnel will look different as well: a combined five starters return on offense and defense.

Taking a step back and looking at the big picture makes it reasonable to assume that the Tigers will only be favored in one of these four games: vs UAB on the 19th. Unfortunately, the matchup against the Blazers comes in-between two SEC road games... don't forget Alabama came into town at the beginning of the month. Physically, November will be draining.

Even then, the concern with UAB isn't necessarily with the Tigers and their issues, but rather with the Blazers and their strengths. From top to bottom the offense has arguably its best set of skill position players since the program was revitalized in 2017. Quarterback Dylan Hopkins, running back DeWayne McBride, and wide receiver Trea Shopshire form a potent trio that should give LSU problems.

On top of that, the Blazers defense finished first in the C-USA in three major statistical categories (points per game, rushing yards per game, total yards per game).

It will be interesting to see how quickly Brian Kelly can get things off the ground, but regardless, the month of November does not appear to be an easy one for LSU.

Mississippi State goes winless in the SEC

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I bet against Mike Leach and the Bulldogs in 2021 and came up empty. I'm doubling down this season.

Experience is something that the Bulldogs have in droves. MSU is 20th in total returning production, and 8th in defensive production. While that sounds nice on the surface, there are a couple of things to note here.

The Bulldogs gave up 5.8 yards per play during SEC games last season. That's not good, and it does not spell positive things for a secondary that finished 10th in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game.

Volatility is also something MSU possesses. Consider how last season unfolded. The Bulldogs rocked NC State in week two, then lost to Memphis the following week. Two games later they defeated Texas A&M in College Station... and then lost by 40 to Alabama following their bye (the Crimson Tide lost to A&M the previous week).

Does returning a large amount of production from an up and down team spell improvement for the following season?

It doesn't objectively tell us anything either way, but on paper I'm inclined to believe that the Bulldogs won't be making major moves in the SEC for a couple of reasons. First is the air raid offense. Mike Leach's philosophy definitely has its perks, but its similar to the triple-option -  if it works, it works. But if it doesn't work, then it really doesn't work. Blowouts usually ensue if the team can't get momentum going early. Unless the opponent is Auburn. 26.1 points per game vs SEC teams not named Vanderbilt does not cut it. 

I'm not saying it is, but if seven wins is the peak of Mike Leach in the SEC West, then what does the floor look like?

We may find out with the upcoming schedule.

Sept. 3rd vs Memphis

Sept. 10th at Arizona (who scheduled this?)

Sept. 17th at LSU

Sept. 24th vs Bowling Green

Oct. 1st vs Texas A&M

Oct. 8th vs Arkansas

Oct. 15th at Kentucky

Oct. 22nd at Alabama

Nov. 5th vs Auburn

Nov. 5th vs Georgia

Nov. 5th vs ETSU

Nov. 5th at Ole Miss

MSU should get past its non-conference slate with relative ease, but look at that SEC slate. All of those SEC teams made a bowl, two of them made the College Football Playoff, and five of them won nine games or more.

Maybe winless in the SEC is a little too much, but there's a legitimate chance the Bulldogs take a dive this season.

Zach Evans leads the SEC in rushing yards

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The former five-star running back transferred in from TCU into a great situation. Ole Miss' top four rushers are gone, and Evans will be getting a lot of touches in his first year at the 'Sip. He'll be paired up with former SMU back Ulysses Bentley IV. The two should form an excellent inside-outside rushing duo.

The 7.3 yards per carry Evans averaged at TCU is what commands my attention. If Evans dips to 6 yards per carry, he'll still be in line to lead the conference in yards. consider the circumstances at Ole Miss.

Kiffin loves to get the ball to his best playmakers. The Rebels lost their top five receiving targets. They also averaged 217.6 rushing yards per game last season, showing they have the ability to commit to the ground game.

If new QB Jaxon Dart (USC transfer) doesn't wow the coaching staff like Matt Corral did, it is possible that Kiffin alongside new offensive coordinators John David Baker and Charlie Weis Jr. lean on Evans to keep things going.

The SEC's 2021 leading rushing Tyler Badie is gone. The second leading rusher, Chris Rodriguez Jr, currently is going through some off the field issues and will likely serve a four-game suspension to begin the season. This may end up being a race between Evans, Tank Bigsby (Auburn), Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), and Devon Achane (Texas A&M). I like Evans' chances.

Texas A&M suffers two losses before their bye week

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The Aggies are projected to finish around ten wins in 2022. Without a quarterback in place, A&M may be one season away from competing for the SEC West. 

October 15th is when Texas A&M's bye falls, six weeks into the season.

Sept. 3rd vs Sam Houston

Sept. 10th vs Appalachian State

Sept. 17th vs Miami (Fla.)

Sept. 24th vs Arkansas (Arlington, TX)

Oct. 1st at Mississippi State

Oct. 8th at Alabama

Oct. 15th - Bye Week

Last season, the Aggies suffered two losses before their bye, to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Once again, Jimbo Fisher & Co. take the Hogs and Bulldogs on before their bye, except this time MSU gets A&M at home.

Throw in a road trip to Tuscaloosa right before the bye, and there's a legitimate shot that this season starts similarly to last season. Right now, I'm leaning towards losses to Arkansas and Alabama, considering this co-insides with my Mississippi State prediction. I don't trust Fisher's decision at quarterback to be the reason A&M wins ten games.

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