FPI Predicts BYU vs TCU, Updates Win Projection for the Cougars

The Cougars renew an old conference rivalry with TCU on the road

BYU's bye week is officially in the rearview mirror. BYU is 4-1 as prepares to take on TCU on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are 3-3 and coming off a 27-14 loss to Iowa State. Most notably, TCU starting quarterback Chandler Morris left the game with what appeared to be a knee injury and did not return. His injury status for this week against BYU is unknown. ESPN's predictive college football algorithm, the football power index, updated its prediction for BYU-TCU. FPI gives BYU a 27.9% chance to beat TCU at home.

Coming off the win over Cincinnati, FPI projected BYU to finish with a 6.1-5.9 record and gave BYU a 68.2% chance to finish with six or more wins. After the bye week, FPI downgraded BYU's projected record to 6.0-6.0 and now gives BYU just a 65.0% chance to finish with six or more wins. Why did FPI's outlook for BYU get worse during the bye week? BYU's future opponents Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma State played well on Saturday which upgraded their FPI rankings. Therefore, BYU's win probabilities against Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State decreased.

BYU started the 2023 season ranked 60th in FPI. BYU is 53rd after a 4-1 start to the season. The Cougars are ranked above Big 12 peers Houston (70) and Baylor (79).

BYU WR Chase Roberts scores a touchdown against Cincinnati / Credit: BYU Photo

Oklahoma is the the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the FPI rankings - the Sooners rank second nationally behind only Ohio State. The Sooners travel to Provo to take on BYU in November.

Big 12 FPI Rankings

1. Oklahoma - 2nd nationally
2. Texas - 6th nationally
3. Kansas State - 22nd nationally
4. Texas Tech - 27th nationally
5. TCU - 31st nationally
6. Cincinnati - 39th nationally
7. UCF - 40th nationally
8. Kansas - 42nd nationally
9. West Virginia - 43rd nationally
10. Iowa State - 44th nationally
11. Oklahoma State - 52nd nationally
12. BYU - 53rd nationally
13. Houston - 70th nationally
14. Baylor - 79th nationally

In the FPI model, Oklahoma is given 63.2% chance to win the conference and Texas is second at 33.4%. Kansas State is third in line with a 1.4% chance to win the Big 12.

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