Preview and Prediction for BYU vs No. 20 Oklahoma State
BYU is 5-6 and coming off a narrow loss to Oklahoma. The Cougars are on a mission to reach bowl eligibility - they have one last chance against Oklahoma State to reach six wins. Oklahoma State is 8-3 and coming off a win over Houston. Today, we'll preview BYU-Oklahoma State and predict the final score.
BYU Quarterback Situation
BYU has not named a starting quarterback for the Oklahoma State game. Starter Kedon Slovis suffered an injury against Texas and missed a few games. In his place, junior Jake Retzlaff replaced Slovis in the starting lineup where he has started the last three games.
Keys to the Game
Slow Down Ollie Gordon
Oklahoma State star running back Ollie Gordon (who was once a BYU target by the way) has been one of the top two or three running backs in the country this season. Gordon has run for over 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry.
The Oklahoma State offense runs through Gordon. If BYU can slow down Ollie Gordon and force Oklahoma State to beat them in other ways, the Cougars will have the chance to pull off an upset.
Gordon's injury status will be a story to watch in this game. He was limited last week against Houston and he was seen in a walking boot after the game. Gordon is no 100% - how big of a workload will Oklahoma State give him with a potential Big 12 title game on deck next week?
Avoid Catastrophe in the First Quarter
You'd be hard pressed to find a college football team with more catastrophic starts than BYU this season.
- Against Arkansas, BYU trailed 14-0 in the first five minutes after the Razorbacks had two touchdowns of 50+ yards.
- Against Kansas, BYU fumbled on the first possession and Kansas returned the fumble for a score.
- Against TCU, BYU threw a pick-six on the first drive.
- Against Texas, the Longhorns returned BYU's first punt for a touchdown.
- Against Iowa State, BYU threw an interception on the first play and the Cyclones scored a touchdown off the turnover. On the ensuing kickoff, BYU fumbled on the return and Iowa State recovered. The Cyclones took a 10-0 lead before BYU had taken two snaps on offense.
That doesn't even include a game against West Virginia where BYU trailed 27-0 at halftime.
Needless to say, BYU needs to avoid catastrophe in the first quarter against Oklahoma State. If BYU commits turnovers in the first few minutes, the game could be over by halftime like it was against Iowa State and West Virginia.
Win the Turnover Battle
Speaking of turnovers, turnover margin has been the story of season for this BYU football team. The turnover margin has determined most of BYU's games this season. In five wins, BYU is +12 in turnover margin. In six losses, BYU is -11 in turnover margin. BYU is an underdog to the Cowboys. If BYU is going to pull off the upset, they have to win the turnover battle or at least neutralize it.
The Cougars lost three turnovers to Oklahoma last week. If BYU would have protected the football, they probably would have upset the Sooners last week.
One storyline that's been lost in the last three games is BYU's inability to create turnovers. BYU was one of the best defenses in the country in forcing turnovers during the first two months of the season. That has disappeared in November. BYU has not forced a single turnover over the last three games.
Score Prediction
Credit: BYU Photo
BYU showed a lot of fight against Oklahoma last week. The Cougars had their best rushing performance of the season and the defense held a dangerous Oklahoma offense in check. The Cougars are definitely capable of shaking up the conference landscape and pulling off the upset.
I expect BYU to come out highly motivated. The pressure in this game is on Oklahoma State, not BYU. The Cougars will make this game more competitive than the spread.
Oklahoma State will come out with their hair on fire. BYU is the only team standing between the Cowboys and the conference championship game. Will the Cowboys rise to the occasion or crumble under the pressure?
A few weeks ago, Oklahoma State was inexplicably blown out against UCF. Between that game and the blowout loss against Southern Alabama, you never know what you're going to get from this Oklahoma State football game.
Although BYU will look like an improved team compared to the last few weeks, I don't think the Cougars will have enough offensive firepower to keep up with this Oklahoma State offense.
BYU 27 | Oklahoma State 31
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