Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: West Virginia Mountaineers

An old Big East foe awaits UC next.

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats go from one old conference rivalry to another as they travel to face the West Virginia Mountaineers on Wednesday night. It marks one of just three remaining non-Quad 1/2 games as West Virginia checks in at No. 152 in the NET Rankings to Cincinnati's No. 32 mark. The Mountaineers are 135th on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 31st.

This marks another huge game in Cincinnati's pursuit of an NCAA Tournament bid. 

They likely need 19-20 wins to make the dance, and this is one of those three glaring big chances for a win left on the board. According to Sport Reference, Cincinnati is 9-7 against West Virginia since 1949 and enters the game as a 76.5% favorite to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

When West Virginia Has The Ball

Cincinnati's defense can dominate this game and make things much easier on a path to victory against the nation's 312th-ranked scoring offense (68.3 PPG).

The Bearcats must bottle up guard Kerr Kriisa (11 points, 4.5 assists) from setting the pace and turning that dial-up in transition. We know how incredible the Bearcats' top-20 defense nationally is in the half-court. The Mountaineers don't have the one-on-one scoring talent to break that down.

That's a big reason why they operate with the 126th fastest pace of any team according to KenPom. They don't do anything efficiently on offense besides making free throws (15.1 per game, 105th nationally). They are outside the top 220 in every traditional shooting metric, despite being powered by a big scoring option.

Kriisa (43% from deep on nearly seven shots per game) is the lone three-point threat on this team, as Cincinnati can pack the interior and force WVU to find open jump shots in the half-court. One guy who could break through that wall on his own is 6-foot-11 forward Jesse Edwards (13.8 points, 8.3 rebounds).

He leads all Mountaineers in Player Efficiency Rating and will test UC's strong frontcourt depth. Take him and Kriisa out of the game, and WVU is cut off outside and inside.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Nearing the midpoint of Big 12 play, UC gets to face arguably the worst defense in the conference as they try to find some consistency scoring the ball. Cincinnati's missed plenty of head-scratching close shots recently and they'll get a bunch more of those looks against the 11th-ranked two-point defense in Big 12 play thus far (55.1% allowed).

Kriisa comes up on this side of the ball as well. He'll be the worst defender on the floor every minute he's playing and has to be attacked by UC's lead guards (last in defensive rating among rotation players, one of two rostered players with negative DBPM).

Forcing hard doubles by cooking Kriisa will pull Edwards away from the rim and hurt his impact as a defensive anchor. It's likely going to require hitting some outside shots though. If Cincinnati drops in double-digit threes for the first time in conference play, they'll blow out WVU. Things could get a little tight if they max out at their conference high (seven triples).

WVU is allowing a 34.9% three-point mark in conference, ticking worse in this stretch of conference games. Cincinnati should be able to create enough offense at the rim to win either way, but a trend up from outside is more than welcome at this point in the season.

Prediction: 76-67 Cincinnati

The Bearcats find offensive success for the first time in a few games on Wednesday and hit nine threes thanks to great ball movement (WVU enters 245th in opponent assists per game) from the Cincinnati backcourt.

Kriisa goes cold on the other end, and UC contains leading scorer Raequan Battle (16.3 points, 4.4 rebounds) with a disciplined defense that keeps him and the rest of the Mountaineers off of the foul line to give Cincinnati back-to-back wins ahead of a top-15 road date with the Big 12 leaders: Texas Tech.

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