Game Preview: Cincinnati Searches For Series Sweep of Indiana

The two sides played an exciting game at the Hoosier's house last season.

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) have plenty on the line this Saturday as they look for consecutive wins against Indiana (3-0) for the first time since 1957.

The Bearcats are fresh off a 38-17 triumph over the Miami RedHawks and enter this game as 17-point favorites. ESPN's FPI has them winning this game 87.7% of the time. Indiana enters the game ranked 82nd in SP+, while UC sits at No. 17.

"I don't think our guys look at it as proving anything," UC head coach Luke Fickell said about the game. "I do know that they grew up in this region, 81 percent of our guys, so anytime you can play another team that is within our region, it is a great opportunity. Think about our league—we don't get a whole lot of opportunities to play the teams that maybe some of our guys grew up watching. Not saying that they were diehard to go to Indiana, but I think that does mean something anytime a team comes to Cincinnati, especially if they are undefeated. I think it's a big deal."

Let's dive into the preview.

*All EPA numbers are from FBS games only.

Taming The Transfers

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The Indiana offense is a high-passing attempt system conducted by a trio of new faces starting with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. The junior's posted 891 yards passing with five TDs and two interceptions on the fifth-most attempts nationally (77-of-136 passing).

All of that is good for a 51.1 QBR (77th nationally) as Bazelak has struggled with his efficiency early in the season. Continuing the trend is crucial for Cincinnati's hopes of making it 29 straight wins at home. 

The underlying metrics make that a shaky proposition. UC's defense enters this game 102nd in passing EPA allowed (0.267). The rush defense is much better (-0.118, 42nd nationally) after limiting Miami to 1.9 yards per carry.

The nickel corner combo of Taj Ward and Sammy Anderson Jr. has performed well despite those figures, and they'll face the toughest test yet in D.J. Matthews. The slot maven previously played at Florida State and has notched 15 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns this season.

"The good thing is we have got some pretty good slot receivers that we've gone against every day," Fickell said. "That's where Tre Tucker and the guys that we face on a regular basis really help prepare us for when we get opportunities like this. Our nickels and defensive backs have been challenged a lot, but they (Indiana) do create some more space with some of those splits and things like that. There's always different things, and you got to be aware of it, but that's why I kind of said before that I think those nickels will have a little greater challenge on their hands not just because of (D.J.) Matthews but also because of how they use the space that they create. That's a great challenge for us." 

Meanwhile, Arquon Bush gets to wrestle with No. 1 receiver Cam Camper. The 6-foot-2 JuCo transfer paces Indiana with 23 catches (14th nationally), for 292 yards (25th nationally), and one score. If UC gets caught sleeping, this passing attack can be a big upset factor.

House Of Havoc

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Big defensive plays have been one of the largest factors in the second-longest active home-winning streak in the country. Cincinnati needs to create a little bit more pressure on the QB this week and avoid the big sack on the other side.

Thus far, Indiana has allowed just four sacks in three games, while Cincinnati sits at t-47th nationally with seven sacks on defense. Speeding up Bazelak and forcing him to hit the turf 3-5 times on Saturday will short circuit this timing-reliant offense from the Hoosiers. Getting home with three down linemen has been the skeleton key for UC's defense over the years.

"That does a lot of things for us," defensive tackle Jowon Briggs said. "It allows us as defensive lineman to be able to dominate and be able to rely on our back end a little bit more. With three defensive lineman, there is an extra skill guy back there, and it helps us to be able to succeed doing what allows us to play a little more fluent." 

How the front deals with interior injuries to the Hoosiers is a fulcrum on Saturday. Indiana is reportedly down to their third-string center, but Briggs isn't doubting his opponent.

 "In my head, that guy earned his spot. He is a scholarship player in the Big Ten," Briggs said. "So you never know. He might be the best center they got, so I am going to get after him the same way I would get after a first string or whoever would be out there. I say it is more so of a mindset, coming to play a team more than going to play an actual person."

On the other side of the ledger, I'd like to see Ben Bryant escape pressure a little bit better this week. He's done a fantastic job improving each week, but the one thing lacking is the sack total. Cincinnati's given up eight sacks this season (t-96th nationally).

It's not like the offensive line has been bad—on my rewatch of the Miami game, Bryant was only under pressure roughly 10 times, but three of those ended in sacks. Keep one or two more of those plays alive, and Indiana should reward UC. They are in the bottom 30 nationally in explosive plays of 10-plus, and 20-plus yards allowed.

Another Chance To Light A Spark

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Fickell called the beginning of last year's 38-24 win over Indiana "the worst 28 minutes" his team played all year. They trailed 14-0 before storming back for a victory that helped define the historic season.

"We did not play well," Fickell said about the opening stretch. "We didn't handle the atmosphere quite as well, maybe it was the heat or all the different things being on the road. We did not handle that well, but for us to find a way to kind of rally the troops, gather ourselves, and win a big game on the road after that kind of the start was big. Not that we didn't believe in ourselves, and think we had a really good football team, but more than anything to be down the way we were and to face what it is that we were facing on the road. I thought that really helped define us kind of as a team because every year you are different."

The afternoon in Bloomington was a springboard, and this can be as well. Right now, Cincinnati looks like the clear best team in the American Athletic Conference. A win over Indiana would keep hopes of a 13-win season alive and make a statement to the rest of the AAC, which saw pre-season contender Houston fall to 1-2 last weekend.

The Cougars lost to Kansas, moving the conference record against Power Five opponents to 1-10 this season. There is no heavyweight in this league, but UC can position themselves for a bulk-up by taking out Indiana.

"You don't get a whole lot of [Power 5 Opponents] to come into your stadium and so, yes, it's a big deal for us. I am sure it will be a big deal for them because obviously, last year in their house, it didn't go the way they wanted it to. In some ways, I think if I was them I would have this one circled. The ability to go on the road and redeem what we did to them last year. So, the key is that we understand that the key is that we prepare for that. I think more than anything, our players just love being at home and having the ability to play in front of a wild crowd."

A Big Ten team hasn't played at Nippert Stadium since 2013, a 42-7 win for Munchie Legaux and UC. They'll look to repeat that history on Saturday.

The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and is available on fuboTV. Start your free trial here.

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