Game Preview: South Florida Comes to Nippert Stadium for Homecoming Bout

The Bearcats have won four-straight games against the Bulls.

CINCINNATI — Homecoming weekend is here for the Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1, 1-0) as they face the South Florida Bulls searching for a 30th-straight home win.

Cincinnati can also extend the series winning to an all-time high five games and many expect them to roll in this one. Luke Fickell's team is a 27.5-point favorite and ESPN's Matchup Predictor has the Bearcats winning 96.8% of the time.

"It’s homecoming weekend, which is exciting," Fickell said this week. "There is a little bit more energy and excitement on campus and it is where we feel most comfortable, so we expect a great atmosphere on Saturday. I expect a team that will come back in here, fighting, scratching, clawing, that's what we would expect. They have a lot of talent, speed, I think on both sides of the football, their return game is really special at times, so we have to be really prepared.”

Here's a look at what to expect as Cincinnati goes for its 18th-straight conference win.

*All EPA numbers are from FBS games only, all line and rate stats are via Football Outsiders.

Battie The Bull

© Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

The Bulls have essentially one path to pull this upset, force a few turnovers, and dominate the clock with a pretty strong run game led by Brian Battie. The sophomore leads USF with 391 rushing yards on 7.67 yards per carry (third nationally).

The guy can fire through a hole and has as many rushing TDs (three) as the Bulls have thrown this season. It's essentially Battie or bust for a team that feeds its running game through him and QB Gerry Bohanon (92-of-171 carries combined).

"They are a little bit back and forth with the guys on running the football and throwing the football," Fickell said about the USF offense. "But I know as a coach you sit there and look at it the fact that maybe they haven't won games, but they had 400 plus yards of total offense last week throwing the ball, running the ball, and it a team like I said that anytime their backs against the wall, you are going to get their best.”

The Bulls' offensive line can move people and presents one of the toughest challenges yet for this UC front seven in the run game. 

USF ranks 18th nationally in run opportunity rate, 40th in stuff rate, 30th in average line yards, 41st in rushing success rate, and 13th in EPA/carry. Gap discipline and continued punishment at the point of attack should render this offense inept, but UC has to bring the pain at home.

Passing Going South

© Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Throwing the football has been like a root canal for South Florida this season. I mentioned the three TDs Bohannon has thrown all while averaging 164.4 yards per game (106th nationally) and tossing six picks (t-10th most). 

All in all, Bohannon is 118th nationally in passing efficiency (106.83), and QBR (28.6), while manning an attack ranked 107th in EPA/pass.

"I think they are a little bit back and forth," Fickell said about the USF offense. "They know they've got talent and know they have speed at the wide receiver position and want to get the balls into those guys' hands. So, I think maybe early on, they were trying to force things a little bit differently. The quarterback is not new, obviously, he was a starter last year at Baylor, played 13 games, and led them to the [Big 12] Championship.

"He didn't come until the fall, so I think that all-in-all they probably had a good idea the first four or five games that it was going to be a bit of development for what the offense is going to be, and so maybe they are not where they want to be, but I do believe that they have the pieces and the talent."

Don't expect Bohanon to turn things around against UC either, which sports the 11th-best defensive passing efficiency mark (107.48) and the second-best EPA/pass mark (-0.381). 

The Bearcats are also sixth in both offensive and defensive success rates allowed. A barely noticeable drop off from last year, what this unit lost in top-end talent it gained in overall depth. They've weathered injuries well this season and the top matchup to watch should be in the trenches when this USF offensive line (2.7% sack rate allowed, 17th nationally) faces the scariest front in the country through four games.

UC leads the nation in sack rate (12.3%), sacks (23), and tackles for loss (50), while also being fifth in yards per play (3.89). It's hunting season at home for Ivan Pace Jr. & Co.

Open The Floodgates

Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of yards per play, USF is on the opposite end of that spectrum. They allow 7.15 yards per play (fourth-worst nationally) and don't have any strengths on that side of the ball.

Saturday should be a nice tune-up day for the UC passing and rushing attack against a unit allowing the second-highest EPA/pass and eighth-highest EPA/rush mark. Cincinnati has struggled to stop sacks at times this season (97th sack rate allowed), but USF ranks 123rd on the other side of that equation.

It's hard to find things this team does well defensively. One area of moderate strength is turnovers, forcing nine on the year. Yet, they've had strong fumble luck, recovering 5-of-7 cough-ups.

As mentioned earlier, paths to a USF victory are all on the Bearcats. Taking care of the ball, respecting your opponent, and better second-half execution should make this another winning Homecoming afternoon at Nippert Stadium.

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