Preview: UC Searches For Continued Dominance Over Miami (OH)

Cincinnati has won this rivalry game each of the last 16 outings.

CINCINNATI — It's nearly time for the Battle for the Victory Bell as UC football looks to continue its dominance over Miami (OH). Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season and has beaten the RedHawks in 16 consecutive games.

The two sides have been playing this rivalry since 1888, but have not played at Miami since 2017. Cincinnati enters the game as a 14-point betting favorite and a 90.7% favorite on ESPN's matchup predictor.

Cincinnati has won 14-night games in a row as it looks to keep the Nipp at Nite magic cooking in front of another sell-out crowd. Let's dive into the battle.

When UC Has The Ball

Cincinnati should be a lot closer to the 66-point total from Week 1 on Saturday night. The new-look receiving group has shown its versatility across the opening two games with Xzavier Henderson leading the way in Week 1 and Braden Smith taking center stage in Week 2.

Miami has not tackled well to start the 2023 season and there's no evidence that will get better on Saturday. The RedHawks rank 130th out of 133 FBS teams with a 36.7 tackling grade this season. Emory Jones could get the deep ball cooking again in this game as he faces a pass defense ranked 79th nationally in EPA/pass allowed (UC offense is 20th on the other side).

It'll be interesting to see if Miami keeps dominating the field position battles. They rank first nationally in opposing offenses' starting field position (17.2-yard line), while UC's offense is 104th (25.2-yard line average start). That could force UC to be sound across longer drives, but unless defensive end Caiden Woullard and Miami's front ball out, it shouldn't be a big issue.

Woullard's been the RedHawks' best defender this season leading the entire team with an 80.1 PFF grade. He has seven pressures, two sacks, and one pass breakup. Woullard likes to align over the tackle and bring the pain downhill.

Another downhill thumper leads Miami's backend in safety Michael Dowell (76.5 PFF grade). He paces Miami with their only two interceptions this season and lines up at a variety of spots from slot corner to free safety.

He's a Swiss Army knife UC must keep tabs on.

When Miami Has The Ball

Gabbert to Gage.

That's the top note on the defensive game plan for UC. Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert (10 yards per attempt on 55% completion in 2023, four TDs, two interceptions, 71.1 PFF grade) has a ton of confidence and experience across 30-plus starts to avoid withering under the lights, and a star receiver to match in Gage Larvardain (16 catches, 353 yards, three TDs, 79.2 PFF grade).

The 5-foot-10, 165-pound burner set a school record for receiving yards (eight catches, 273 yards, three TDs) in last weekend's win over UMass, including a school-record 99-yard touchdown catch. Larvadain transferred from Southeast Louisiana this offseason and has had an instant impact.

It's Larvadain and not much else in this passing attack. The junior has 353 receiving yards, while the rest of the roster has posted just 113 total receiving yards. Shut down Larvadain and Miami is done for. That could definitely happen from UC's 28th-ranked defense nationally by EPA/pass.

On the ground, Rashad Amos (31 carries, 145 yards, 68.4 PFF grade) has taken half of all the carries this season at 6-foot-2, 234 pounds. The Redhawks have not run the ball well at all this season (3.3 yards per carry, zero touchdowns).

Prediction: UC 35-17

The Bearcats win this rivalry game again on Saturday behind a third-straight 200-yard rushing outing and three touchdown passes from Jones. Cincinnati is one of the nation's best red zone offenses and that comes through multiple times on Saturday (100% red zone score rate this season).

Cincinnati slices up a dilapidated RedHawks secondary and gives up just one big-play touchdown to Larvardain en route to what could be the last easy win of the season as Big 12 play awaits the rest of the way.

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