2023-24 FSU Basketball Season Preview: The Roster
We are just under a month out from Florida State's season starting at home against Kennesaw State, and there is some intrigue about what this team can be. Going 9-23 last season was as worst case of a scenario as you could conjure up, and Coach Hamilton has been adamant things would change in the locker room and on the court.
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So how much changed? We're going to dive into the 2023-24 roster today, breaking down what has left, what's returning, and all of the newcomers on this roster. At the end, I'll give my thoughts on a projected depth chart, and on the team as a whole.
Outgoing Production
On paper, you can argue Florida State is losing a lot from an already bad team. Now gone from Tallahassee are Matthew Cleveland (transferred to Miami), Caleb Mills (Memphis), Naheem McLeod (Syracuse), and Jeremiah Bembry (West Virginia), which is a total of 30.6 PPG, 13.1 RPG, and 5.4 APG, as well as 36.3% of minutes played on the team. That's a lot of minutes gone from just four players, one of which didn't even play, and it's fair to wonder if it's going to make a bad team worse with this much production gone.
I really don't think that's the case, though. As talented as Cleveland is, his one-on-one defense was average at best at times, causing the defense behind him to get out of position quickly as they react, but he was great off the ball defensively. He became a much better 3-point shooter as the season progressed, but he was still only taking about 2 shots from distance each game, and defenses were thrilled to let him settle for deep jumpers instead of getting to the rim.
That being said, Florida State is absolutely going to miss his off-ball defense, his rebounding, and his ability to get to the rim and finish with athleticism. He's a special finisher in traffic around the basket, and I don't think this roster has a player on the roster that can finish anywhere at as high of a level as Cleveland. Despite him going to Miami, this loss doesn't sting that bad on the outside. For every amazing moment he provided, there were moments where you were left shaking your head. The talent was so clearly there, but the results never came. Bill Simmons of The Ringer has what he calls the "Ewing Theory," stemming from the 1999 NBA Finals run for the Knicks, essentially saying there's a player that will get the media attention, but it never leads to real success, and the team may be better off without him. It'll be fascinating to see if it happens for this team with Cleveland gone.
Mills is a tough evaluation. The talent and ability to get buckets is so clearly there, but there are long stretches of games where his poor shot selection and looseness with the basketball put Florida State in deep holes that were tough to dig out of. Now, when he was on and confident, he was as good as any player in the ACC (I'll forever have his overtime against Duke in 2022 ingrained in my head where despite being down two with under a minute and being 4/16 from the floor, he steps into a 3 and makes it to take the lead), but those instances were few and far between, especially last season. For a guy who shot 35.8% from 3 his first three years in college, his efficiency plummeted to just 29.4% last year on the same volume. Some of it was that FSU wanted him to have the ball in his hands more as a point guard type, I just think he's more of a Monta Ellis type of player who will get his, but it wouldn't often lead to success. Defensively, he was great at swiping down at the ball, but his frame would allow him to get pushed around on the perimeter and in the post on switches. Mills came in with very high expectations from Houston, it just didn't work at Florida State for whatever reason.
Naheem McLeod will not be missed. This is a player who rarely took things seriously, played soft and out of position a lot, and failed to realize his potential in a system that should've suited him very well. There is no reason someone 7'4" should average less than 3 rebounds per game in 15 minutes, and I know what his shot block average is, but if you take out a 5-block game against Mercer and a 6-block game against Louisville, he averaged just 0.8 blocks in the other 26 games he played in. And don't even get me started on his hands. If you want to watch a disaster class, watch his 8 minutes played in a blowout at Clemson, and it's infuriating how often he's out of position on both sides of the floor.
Bembry never played in a season that was marred by injuries for him, from his back to his foot. I think he's a very talented player, but FSU needs guys who can contribute right now, and that wasn't necessarily the case with Bembry. I look forward to seeing what his career becomes at West Virginia.
In total, FSU is losing one guy they really didn't want to leave but it doesn't hurt as bad as it should, one who didn't work out, one who needed to go, and one who didn't play a single minute last season. I feel that's reasonable.
Returning Production
Darin Green Jr (Senior, Guard)
Darin was unfairly hated last season by the fanbase for whatever reason; it's something I never understood. He's a prolific 3-point shooter and was on a team that had very little playmaking and outside shooting besides him, so defenses tried their hardest to run him off of the line as the only real perimeter threat. Despite the lack of spacing around him, he still found a way to shoot 36.4% from 3 on high volume, and that was brought down by a bad February and March where he shot 29.1% from 3; you could tell he was fatigued as the season went along from playing 34+ minutes per game, something not usually seen from Leonard Hamilton teams. In fact, Green's 34.1 minute per game average is the highest since Xavier Rathan-Mayes averaged 34.7 MPG in the 2014-15 season, and the 4th highest overall in the Leonard Hamilton era. His systems have never been built to give players heavy minute loads, and I think that impacted Green as much as anything.
The hope is with more depth and shooting around him, he'll be able to pick and choose his spots more carefully, and he at least cares on defense. There are some athletic shortcomings, but Green tries, and that's something. He should also be able to sub out of the game occasionally; he played 37 minutes or more 11 times last season. I'm a big believer in Darin Green, and I think he's in line for a big season, and he's coming off of a solid 13.4 PPG season.
Cam'Ron Fletcher (Senior, Wing)
Fletcher is coming off of a torn ACL suffered at Virginia in early December of last season, with his surgery being performed in early January. By all accounts, it looks like he'll be good to go for the start of this season, or at the least very early on, which would be huge. He looked like Florida State's best player last season, showing a willingness to do the dirty work and take tough shots, was the only one who bothered to rebound early on, and was a solid on-ball defender. His 3-point shot was looking great to start the season; his first 7 games of the season, he shot 13/33 (39.4%), before really struggling in the last three games, just 2/12 (16.7%). If he can expand those first 7 games across the entire 2023-24 season, the spacing for the offense becomes so much better. Because he only played in ten games last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Leonard Hamilton apply for a medical redshirt for Fletcher, which would gain him an extra year of eligibility. Coach Hamilton also said that Fletcher has been participating in some light contact practice, stating that he thinks there's a good chance he's good to go for the start of the season.
The biggest thing with Fletcher has always been off-ball defense. There were too many times where he was caught out of position and ball-watching, and his man cut backdoor for an easy basket. His wingspan and athleticism would make for some batted passes and backside shot contesting, but he needs to be much more engaged off the ball to stop the easy backdoor cuts, and allow the rest of the defense to play their role. I have no reservations about Fletcher's ability on the ball, but I'm hoping the time he spent off the court last season, he was really studying defensive rotations. He's got some high expectations entering this season.
Jaylan Gainey (Graduate Student, Big)
I should maybe include Jaylan Gainey in the newcomers, since he'll be playing for FSU for the first time this season. He tore his ACL as well last year, only for him it was before the season started after he transferred to Florida State. Gainey at least got a chance to be around the team, spend a lot of time learning the system, and will be a full go for this upcoming season. The coaching staff remains very high on him, and I heard on multiple occasions last year that he was the difference in possibly being a bubble team, and where the team ended up, which was really bad.
Everything Florida State wants to do defensively, Gainey is perfect for as a big man, At 6'10" and 230 pounds, he's got the size to beat and bang with the vast majority of big men in today's college basketball, but his elite athleticism, both vertically and laterally, really make the difference. He's the rare player who can block 2-3 shots per game, but also switch onto most guards and be just as quick as them. There's a reason Gainey was a two-time Ivy League defensive player of the year playing for the Brown University Bears, and his career block rate of 11% is going to really deter drivers away from the basket. The fact he was blocking 2 shots per game in under 20 minutes on average is borderline insane. I think there's a very real chance he averages around 26 minutes per game this season for the Seminoles, despite another talented big man, which we'll touch on later.
No longer is FSU going to have to rely on the slow-footed McLeod on switches (assuming they continue to switch all screens), who was rarely in the right position, and did a poor job escorting ball-handlers to the basket on drives. I think Gainey is going to make a massive impact on this team, if he's back to the way he was pre-ACL tear. Coach Hamilton said the other day that he's participating in non-contact practice, and that he hopes that Gainey will be good to go by the start of the season.
Jalen Warley (Junior, Guard)
Warley is... a frustrating point guard. He has moments where you see the vision of a 6'7" point guard who can put his head down, get to the rim, make the correct reads and control the offense, and there are times when he looks incredibly timid and unsure of what's going on around him. There are the games at Pitt where he has 23 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 0 turnovers on 9/11 shooting and at Miami where he's a stat-stuffing 11 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 0 turnovers, and you're excited about his potential. There are also the games against Nebraska (2 points on just 4 shots, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 turnovers) and Troy (9 points and 7 turnovers), and you wonder if he can ever be a full-time point guard.
His 10 game stretch from January 11 to February 11 last season, he was playing solid basketball for the most part: 8.6 PPG, 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and he showed a little more willingness to get to the rim and draw free throws. If he can expand on that stretch of basketball to a full season of, let's say, 10 PPG, 5 APG, 4 RPG, all while keeping his turnovers low, I think this becomes a good basketball team. The question is whether or not he can be that confident and aggressive over an entire season. Warley needs to expand his playmaking and trust his instincts more, while getting downhill more often. I think he'll be surprised how much that would open up the offense for everyone.
Baba Miller (Sophomore, Forward)
The deck could not have been more stacked against Miller in his freshman season. He gets to campus with shin splints, forcing him to miss a lot of camp and preseason practices, and if I recall correctly, had only practiced four or five times by the time media day came around in late October. Just before the start of the season, the NCAA suspends him for essentially no reason, originally for the entire season, but FSU fights and gets it down to 16 games. When he comes back, the team is a dreadful 5-11, and they're really struggling to get him integrated. Miller plays one game, then battles tonsillitis, forcing him to miss another game. He really just could not catch a break, could never really get into game shape, was never confident and was really lost on where he was supposed to be on the floor.
He looked SO much better this summer. Florida State allowed Miller to play in the FIBA U19 tournament for his home country of Spain, where he averaged 9.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG, back to looking like the prospect we saw coming into college.
I saw so many fans this summer say that Florida State needs to stick Miller in the post and keep him away from the outside, and I could not disagree more. He's at his best in transition where he can use his frame and ball-handling to be a major mismatch in the open floor. His 3-point shot looks much smoother and quicker and he's very light on his feet, allowing him to defend faster guards on the perimeter.
The biggest thing about his international performance was you could tell he got his confidence back, and I hope he can carry it throughout the season. If the Baba Miller shows up that we saw in FIBA, there are not many players in the ACC that can match up with that, and I'm just hoping FSU finds ways to utilize him properly. There will be times when he's used as a small-ball five, and that's fine and may even be analytically efficient, but with Gainey and Cam Corhen, there's really not a reason to put him down there too often.
Cameron Corhen (Sophomore, Big)
Corhen burst onto the scene almost out of necessity last season. With the injury to Gainey and McLeod not playing well, Cam was forced to play and play a LOT, averaging almost 24 minutes per game and starting 21 games, an extremely rare sighting for a freshman Florida State big. He came into the season expecting to be the number 3 center, and instead was the starter, and he surprised a lot of people, including myself. I wasn't the highest on his game in high school, but his offensive versatility is special. There are not many 6'10", 230 pound guys like Corhen that can bruise people down low, yet still step out and hit around 30% of his 3s to keep the defense honest.
He's almost the polar opposite of Gainey in terms of play style. Where Gainey's almost entire offense will come from lobs and second-chance opportunities, Corhen can create offense for himself, hit 3s, and get to the free throw line and convert there at a high rate. He does have fairly quick feet for his size, though it's tough to compare it to Gainey. Corhen should be perfect in a 6th man role this season, providing instant offense in the post and there's even a small possibility you could see him and Gainey share the floor. If I have to nitpick, I wasn't in love with his shot selection last year, and he needs to be better about finishing around the rim, but I wasn't expecting him to play much as a freshman, and what he put on tape was overall impressive. I'm only expecting him to refine those parts of the game, while becoming much more comfortable in the defensive system.
Chandler Jackson (Sophomore, Guard)
Jackson is another young player who struggled to integrate himself into the system early on last season, but a lot of that was due to a broken thumb in preseason camp, which forced him to miss practice time and games. It's already hard for freshmen to learn Leonard Hamilton's system, it's even harder when you miss preseason camp. Now, the flashes were absolutely there. He's got a junkyard dog mentality and can play some bully ball offensively on smaller guards, but he did play reckless and out of the system often. Now that he's healthy (though, he has dealt with an offseason suspension that was announced in July), the hope is Jackson has a better understanding of the offense and defense, and can work his way into more playing time.
He did shoot 37.5% from 3 last year on limited attempts, and that's with him working through that thumb injury early on. I'd love to see Jackson expand this part of his game because I think there will be a lot of instances where he's playing alongside Warley or Primo Spears and splitting ball-handling opportunities. If both guards on the court can handle the ball and score, it makes it a lot easier for everyone else. Jackson has one of the highest ceilings on the team, and that's saying something given the potential of Miller, Corhen, and Taylor Bol Bowen.
De'Ante Green (Sophomore, Forward)
De'Ante was likely rushed back from his ACL injury a little too soon, and you could tell he was not very comfortable on his leg for the majority of the season. I'm willing to call what he showed last year in limited opportunity a wash, and now that we're close to two years removed from that ACL tear in high school, we should see a much better player.
I'm not quite sure how much he's going to play this season with Jaylan Gainey, Cam Corhen, Cam'Ron Fletcher, Jamir Watkins, and Baba Miller all eating up minutes at the 4 and 5, but I could see him getting some minutes. He showed some touch from the mid-range last season, and hit 4/10 from 3, I'm just wondering if that can expand throughout the season. If it can, he's definitely in line for more playing time. He's got a versatile frame at 6'9", 210 pounds, and he's likely to get some small-ball 5 looks like he got last year. Being able to pick and pop is big in this offense, and he had the quickness in high school to stay in front of most guards. We'll see if that pre-ACL tear athleticism comes back, if not, he may not see much time.
Tom House (Sophomore, Wing)
I'm not expecting House to see too much playing time this season, as he really struggled defensively last season, and there's a lot of talent and experience ahead of him. House's shot selection hurt him a lot last year as well, and despite him being a very capable shooter, he shot just 24.4% from 3. Part of that is a rhythm thing; it's very hard for shooters to sit 30 minutes cold, and then be asked to come in and do what you're best at. House is also limited as a ball-handler, and other teams sniffed that out quickly. However, he did singlehandedly keep FSU in the game at Virginia with his two 3s. Once he hit those first two, his threat of shooting extended that pack-line defense just enough to give FSU some other offense.
If he can show he's improved his knowledge of the system defensively, while being more efficient at shooting and handling the ball, then maybe he can work his way up the depth chart. For now, it's tough to think he's going to be anything more than a 12th or 13th man this season.
Newcomers
Josh Nickelberry (Graduate Student, Guard)
Nickelberry is the nephew of new assistant coach Kevin Nickelberry, and I'm curious to see what kind of role is here for him. He started his career at Louisville, where he didn't really see too much playing time, before transferring to La Salle, where he became a prolific 3-point shooter, splitting time as a starter and off of the bench. His experience and leadership are absolutely necessary. For as much seniority in title is on the team, Nickelberry's 1740 total minutes played in college basketball is third on the team behind Darin Green (3433 career minutes) and Primo Spears (2160 minutes), and his 87 career games trail only Darin Green's 114. This team needed guys who have been around the block and in a lot of different environments.
That being said, I really don't know how much playing time will be had for Nickelberry. As great of a shooter as he is, he's not the best defender, and that may lead him to see his role get smaller as the season progresses. Early on, I fully expect him to be one of the first few guys off of the bench, as Coach Hamilton likes his experienced guys, but there's a lot of talent on this team that may play over Nickelberry eventually. As long as he can come in and hit 1-2 threes in 12-15 minutes per game, I think that's about perfect.
Jamir Watkins (RS-Junior, Wing)
Watkins was the one transfer I really didn't see coming. Once he started his visit, and shortly after announced his commitment, I was a little surprised at the take. Then you turn on the tape.
The more I have watched Watkins, the more excited I've gotten about his fit in Tallahassee; he's a perfect Leonard Hamilton player. A long and rangy athlete at 6'7", who will do all of the dirty work for you, Watkins is going to find himself playing a lot this season. He can defend 1-5, can come from the weak side and block shots, press guards full court, rebound in traffic, and offensively, he showed a lot of progress with his 3-point shot. He won't get pushed around and oftentimes welcomes the challenge. This is the type of player Florida State has really been missing from the roster since RaiQuan Gray and Malik Osborne left, and I can envision him having an impact that lands around those two players (though, oddly enough, his freshman season compares most favorably out of anybody since 2000 to MJ Walker's 2018 season, according to KenPom). I'm not sure if Watkins is going to start or not, but he's going to have a big time role for this team.
Primo Spears (Junior, Guard)
With Caleb Mills and Matthew Cleveland gone, Florida State felt they needed someone who can score. Enter Amir "Primo" Spears, who feels like he should've been a Seminole all along, just based on his name. Spears can flat-out score the basketball, scoring 20 or more points 11 times last season for Georgetown (where assistant Kevin Nickelberry came from), including a game with 37 points against Xavier, a team that would go on to be a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and make the Sweet 16, all while averaging 16 points per game.
I'll be the first to admit, I don't always love his shot selection, and he takes a lot of long 2s, and his size at 6'3" and 185 pounds (same weight as Mills and two inches shorter) may bring some defensive shortcomings. He also has his fair share of duds, like against eventual national champion UCONN, he shot just once in 37 minutes, and didn't get to the free throw line, and while he can hit 3s, he's just a career 30% shooter on not a ton of 3-point volume. He also really needs to take better care of the basketball, as a turnover rate of 16.6%, like he had last season, could get him into trouble. For reference, we thought Mills turned it over a lot and his turnover rate was 15% last year. Spears has a good handle on the ball and can make great passes, I'm just hoping they won't have to rely on him so much ball-handling-wise, and he can do what he does best: score.
There is a small issue, in that Spears needs a waiver approval from the NCAA to play this season, since this is his second transfer already. He started his career at Duquesne before transferring to Georgetown. After one season there, head coach Patrick Ewing was fired, which let everyone on the roster transfer. Because of his previous coach being fired, I'm optimistic the waiver will be approved, but with the NCAA, you just never really know, Coach Hamilton is optimistic as well. Assuming he is approved, his role on this team will be fascinating, because he's not guaranteed to start. In fact, I'd argue he's more likely to come off of the bench in a 6th man role, and he has the skillset that could very easily win him a 6th man of the year award.
Taylor Bol Bowen (Freshman, Forward)
Bowen was the 73rd-ranked player on 247's composite rating system, and he's another prototypical Leonard Hamilton type of player. He's long and athletic, listed at 6'10", but is incredibly mobile and quick on his feet for someone of his size, and will likely play the 4 primarily early on at Florida State. Bowen is a great defender, with the potential to switch 1-5 seamlessly, though I do slightly worry about bigger 5s like the Armando Bacot's of the world overpowering him because of his weight. Because of that defensive versatility, I could see him working his way up the depth chart as the season goes on, much like Devin Vassell did years ago (different players and positions, I know).
His offense is the biggest question mark for Bowen. He thrives in the open court and in transition, as someone who can use his athleticism to finish with finesse around the basket, and he's fast for his size. His jump shot and overall offensive consistency is coming along, but he was finding confidence in his game as last season went on. Early in the season, I don't see him playing too much except for in garbage time, but could definitely make a push as the season progresses.
Waka Mbatch (Freshman, Big)
This is a total unknown of a player. Mbatch comes over from Gambia, while also spending time in Spain, and it was slightly confusing when his name started surfacing as a potential option in the late spring. Film of him is hard to find, and what is out there is against really poor competition. According to his roster information profile, he won defensive player of the year in his championship season at Hope Basketball Academy of Gambia in 2022, while averaging 10 PPG and 10 RPG. He does possess some athletic upside.
It's hard to imagine him seeing much of a role until we see more of him, as I'm not even 100% certain he's on scholarship, but Coach Hamilton and Associate Head Coach Stan Jones have always loved these developmental bigs, even if they haven't worked out recently.
Projected Depth Chart
Florida State has a ton of options for what they can do with lineups, as there is so much versatility across the roster, and it wouldn't surprise me to see starters fluctuate to match different lineups. As of now, here's how I'd project the depth chart, assuming everyone is healthy, with starters being listed first.
PG: Jalen Warley, Primo Spears, Chandler Jackson
SG: Darin Green Jr, Josh Nickelberry
SF: Cam'ron Fletcher, Jamir Watkins, Tom House
PF: Baba Miller, De'Ante Green, Taylor Bol Bowen
C: Jaylan Gainey, Cameron Corhen, Waka Mbatch
It's important to note that no one is locked into a position. I think you're more likely to see Fletcher and Watkins go up to play some minutes at the 4 than you will to even see De'Ante Green there early on, same goes for Primo Spears or Chandler Jackson playing at the 2 instead of Nickelberry, at times.
As mentioned earlier, you can do a lot with this roster, though. If it's late in the game and you really need a stop, you can roll out Warley/Fletcher/Watkins/Miller/Gainey, and have an insane amount of versatility and switchability, as your smallest player on the court is a 6'7", 205-pound Warley, while your biggest is 6'10", 230-pound Jaylan Gainey. It's not often you can reasonably roll out a lineup where there's only a difference of 3 inches and 25 pounds between the biggest and smallest player on the court. If this team wants to go fast with a lot of offensive versatility, you could play Warley or Jackson/Spears/Dar. Green/Fletcher or Watkins/Corhen or Miller, and Fletcher has even shown the ability to play small-ball 5 in pinches. If you need a lineup of shooters, you can see Spears/Nickelberry/Dar. Green/Fletcher/Corhen. If you need rebounding, you could slide Baba Miller to the 3, and play dual bigs with Corhen and Gainey on the floor, and not lose too much with switching.
Positives and Concerns of the Roster
Versatility - Positive
As mentioned in the paragraph above, there is so much versatility littered throughout the roster, both defensively and offensively. You have three guys that can play the lead guard, while also having guys like Baba Miller and Darin Green Jr that can handle the ball occasionally. There are bigs that can comfortably switch on the perimeter and defend like Florida State wants them to. Coach Hamilton has almost limitless opportunities on how he can play this team. Knowing him, he'll lean on the experience and roll out guys like Nickelberry and Spears off the bench early, but I'd love to see a really balanced roster minutes-wise.
Scoring - Concern
I'm really not expecting this team to score a whole lot, and it's the most important thing in basketball. Primo Spears and Darin Green Jr could comfortably be in double digits, but after them, it's a stretch thinking anyone else could get there right now. Maybe Cam'Ron Fletcher can continue ascending, or Baba Miller can build off of his big FIBA U19 tournament, but nothing is guaranteed. I can absolutely see some stretches of games where they go scoreless over a 4-minute period, especially if a guy like Darin Green Jr is dealing with foul trouble. And ideally, I think you'd like Darin Green to be your second or third option offensively, not your first. We'll see if it has any impact on this team scoring, and I'm projecting them to be middle of the road offensively in the ACC.
Depth - Positive
Assuming this team is healthy for the first time in a few years, they have legitimate depth. Coach Hamilton has always said he doesn't think he can often win with his 1 through 5, but rather his 1 through 10. I think this year's team can often go 1 through 12 if needed, and maybe even through 13. There's not a huge talent disparity between the top of the roster and the bottom, in my opinion. Which also means there shouldn't be four players averaging 29+ minutes, like we saw last season. I'd be surprised if anyone besides maybe Darin Green played near an average of 30 minutes per game. This is the first time since the start of the 2021-22 season that I've liked the depth heading into the season, and then injuries plagued that team as the season went along. Hopefully, they stay healthy this year, and they're higher than 290th in bench minutes.
Has Jalen Warley Progressed Enough? - Concern
A lot is on Warley's shoulders this season. If he comes close to reaching his ceiling, this becomes a bubble-type team. If he's lacking confidence and aggression again, this is a team that will likely struggle again. With Primo Spears and Chandler Jackson behind him, you'd think they could make up for it, but this team can't hit it's potential unless Warley is playing well, in my opinion.
Junkyard Defense Is BACK (I Think) - Positive
This team couldn't have stopped a JV high school team it felt like last year, finishing 239th nationally in defensive efficiency (thought it would be worse), 344th out of a possible 363 teams in 3-point percentage allowed, and 304th in offensive rebounding rate allowed. They were also defending for an average of 18.5 seconds per possession, which was the 15th longest in the country, because teams knew they could swing and screen until they got the matchup they wanted, take whatever defender off of the dribble, and either score themselves or kick out for an open three. Part of it was also a little unlucky, as they were 343rd in opposition free throw % at a blistering 75.6%, well above the national average of 71.7%.
While it'd be a little unrealistic that they could improve to a top-30 defense or so in one season, I think this should be a MUCH improved defense. There are better defenders on the roster like Jamir Watkins and Taylor Bol Bowen, Gainey is back from injury to gobble up rebounds and defend on switches, and as of now, the team is healthy. The more guys can stay fresh, sub in and out, the better this defense will play, and being able to play 12-13 guys consistently will really help the defense.
Is There Enough Shooting? - Concern
Florida State really struggled to shoot the 3 last year at just 33%, and when you're giving up the 3s they were giving up, missing them on the other end makes it that much harder to win games. Darin Green Jr back in the lineup helps, and him not being overused should save his legs. Josh Nickelberry comes in as a career 36.8% shooter from deep, but I'm not sure how much he's going to play. Cam'Ron Fletcher, Jamir Watkins, Primo Spears, Chandler Jackson, and Cam Corhen are all fine shooters, Baba Miller and Jalen Warley are below average, Tom House, De'Ante Green, and Taylor Bol Bowen are unknowns, while Gainey isn't a shooter whatsoever. If this team is even above 35% from 3, I think I'd be surprised. I just don't know if they made enough progress to keep defenses honest from the perimeter, and I would've liked to add another guy on the wing that is a known commodity for shooting and defense in the portal this offseason.
Overall Expectations
I'll go over my projected ACC Standings in the coming weeks in my verbose ACC Preview, but I'm weirdly optimistic about this team IF everyone is healthy and IF Jalen Warley takes that next step; both are two huge ifs.
I'm not saying they're a tournament team or even a guaranteed above .500 team, but I do think there's enough talent and depth on the roster to maybe make a run late in the season. I think if they end up middle of the road in the ACC with a chance at being a bubble team, a lot of people will consider that a success given how last season went.
READ MORE: Jordan Travis Believes There Is Still More for Florida State Offense
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