Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The final stretch of the regular season has arrived for the Seminoles.

Three games left in the regular season for Florida State with two road games, starting with Georgia Tech this weekend. The Yellow Jackets haven't played in a week, so we'll see if they show any rust in this game. 

Florida State has not had a lot of success playing at Georgia Tech recently, going just 2-4 since 2016 and losing three straight. FSU has dominated the overall series 45-33. 

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This is an early tip: Noon on ESPN2, live from the Hank McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Breakdown (12-16 Overall, 5-12 ACC)

It's been a rough first year in the ACC at first glance for Damon Stoudamire, but this Georgia Tech team has risen to the occasion a few times this season, having beaten Duke, UNC, Miami, Clemson, and Syracuse this season. Four of those teams are currently in the top 6 of the ACC standings. At the same time, they've lost to UMASS-Lowell, Notre Dame twice, and Louisville. 

They'll get up for the big games but have struggled with consistency. First-year head coach Damon Stoudamire went on a tirade after their second matchup against Clemson, an 81-57 loss, embarrassed by the effort and stating "When I get my guys up in here it’s gonna be different. I’m just telling you." It's not often you'll hear a coach say that in his first season, but the team responded well, winning their next game against Miami. Now that they've had a week off, we'll see how they perform in this one. 

So far this season, Georgia Tech is 1-2 in games where they've had a week between games (one of those being the first loss to Florida State in early January) and have had three separate losing streaks of three games or more. 

This has just been a really confusing Georgia Tech team though. They're below average in turnover rate at 17.6%, but they're 8-4 when they turn it over at that mark or higher and just 4-12 in games where they're better than their average at taking care of the ball. I'm not sure I've ever seen that. 8 of their wins have also come shooting 30% from 3 or lower. They're just one of those teams that can't find consistent ways to win and magically pull them out of a hat when those wins do come. 

Florida State was able to win the first game between these two by getting into the paint for 43 2-point attempts, the 5th most shot against GT all year, but also by converting 7/17 from 3. They were doing a good job of using the drives to open up 3-point looks and it led to a convincing win. It was also FSU's second-lowest forced turnover rate of the season, speaking to the oddity of GT's turnovers and wins correlation. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (15-13 Overall, 9-8 ACC)

With three games left to play, Florida State's position in the ACC Tournament is still up in the air. They currently sit in a three-way tie for 7th but would be the 8th seed in the Tournament started today. What they're hoping to avoid is falling to the 10th seed, where Virginia Tech currently resides. It's a 2-game gap, though Virginia Tech would own the tie-breaker, as they have a win over Virginia (ACC's tie-breakers are odd; I hope I'm reading them right). VT has a much easier schedule to close the season: vs Wake Forest, at Louisville, vs Notre Dame. It's not unreasonable to think they could win all 3. 

At the same time, Florida State is only 1 game back from getting into the top 4. Clemson and Wake Forest currently sit in a tie for 4th with a 10-7 record, and FSU owns a tiebreaker over Wake Forest and 6th place Syracuse, who is 10-8. If FSU wins out (at GT, at Pitt, vs Miami), Clemson goes 1-2 or 0-3 (at Notre Dame, vs Syracuse, at Wake Forest), Wake Forest goes 2-1 (at VT, vs GT, vs Clemson), and Syracuse wins out (at Louisville, at Clemson), FSU would be the 4 seed headed into the ACC Tournament. A lot has to happen for sure, but it's not unreasonable that it could happen. Getting that double-bye would be huge, but at the very least, FSU has to avoid falling into the 10th seed so they're not playing on the first day. Lot of work left to be done. 

Florida State has exploded offensively at home recently, averaging over 79 PPG in their last four home games. They've had some issues on the road though, scoring just 67 PPG over the last three away games. They had two straight road games in January where they scored 80+ points, and the high-scoring affair at Louisville needs to just be thrown out the window. But FSU does need to find some offensive consistency in this game. 

What will go a long way in this game is their ability to attack the rim. Florida State is shooting 52% on their 2-point attempts this year and has been above 50% in 7 of their last 8 games. Jamir Watkins and Jalen Warley have done a great job at finishing on the interior and when Primo Spears is driving to pass instead of score, the offense looks so fluid. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

For Georgia Tech, Ebenezer Dowuona only played two games in February with a foot injury and hasn't played since the 6th. 

Projected Starters

Georgia Tech

G: Naithan George

G: Miles Kelly

G: Kowacie Reeves

F: Tafara Gapare

F: Baye Ndongo

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr. 

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Game

Know Where Miles Kelly Is

9 of Georgia Tech's 12 wins have come when Miles Kelly scores 14 or more points and they're just 3-11 when he scores fewer than that. A big reason they were able to beat Miami recently was his 25 points behind a 7/11 performance from 3. His 3-point shooting percentage on the season at 32.8% may not look daunting, but he has 19 games this season with 6 or more 3PA; he's not afraid to let it fly. 

Florida State has to know where he is at all times and keep his open looks to a minimum. 

Find Offensive Consistency, It Starts in the Interior

Georgia Tech is 9-7 when their opponent shoots 50% or below on 2-pointers and just 3-9 when their opponent shoots above 50%. Need I say more?

Defensive Rebounding

Florida State hasn't been the best defensive-rebounding team this season, allowing an opponent offensive rebound rate of 32.0%. Georgia Tech has gotten to that number 11 times this season, winning 7 of them. With Baye Ndongo and Tyzhaun Claude each averaging 2.4 offensive rebounds per game, FSU is going to have to make sure they're controlling the defensive glass to not allow second-chance opportunities. 

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 1.5 with a projected total of 148.5. 

This has not been a city FSU has had much success in with any sport recently, but basketball especially, having lost three straight games at Georgia Tech. I'm trying to figure out which is the more likely option: FSU's offensive road struggles continue and they lose a 4th straight at GT, or this year's Georgia Tech squad having a stretch where they've won three of their last four. 

I guess I'll take Georgia Tech, but I'm not confident. 

Georgia Tech 71, Florida State 70

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