Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Miami Hurricanes

The Seminoles and former FSU standout Matthew Cleveland face off on the hardwood for the first time.

Florida State is putting its 4-game winning streak on the line, as they travel to Coral Gables to face Miami, with a bevy of fascinating storylines to keep people interested. From Coach Hamilton coaching against his former team to Matthew Cleveland playing his old team and everything in between, this should be a good one. 

These two rivals split their games last year, with Miami blowing out the 'Noles in Tallahassee and FSU responding with a buzzer-beater by Matthew Cleveland to give the 'Canes their last loss before the Final Four, but FSU has won 12 of the last 14 games in this series. It still doesn't even feel real that the guy who hit this shot and then threw down the "U" is now playing for them. 

This game will be at 7 PM on the ACC Network, live from the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida. 

Miami Hurricanes Breakdown (12-4 Overall, 3-2 ACC)

Miami is in its 13th season under head coach Jim Larranaga, who led them to a Final Four this past season. They lost their two leading scorers, Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, but have seen a jump in production from some incumbents while adding Matthew Cleveland from Florida State, who has jumped in production and efficiency across the board. They started the season off strong at 11-2 with wins over Kansas State, Georgia, and Clemson, but have lost 2 of their last 3, including one of the most shocking upsets to happen in conference play thus far, losing at home to Louisville, who hadn't won a road game in over two years. 

These last three games have been a little eye-opening. An overtime loss at Wake Forest doesn't turn any heads, but losing at home to Louisville before barely squeaking by Virginia Tech, who was playing without Hunter Cattoor, definitely has some people wondering if they're losing their stride as we get into the heart of ACC play. This is a good opportunity to get back on track, with Miami's next four games coming against teams lower than 60th in KenPom. 

Standout Defensive Tackle To Return To FSU Football In 2024 With New Number

This is a fantastic offense, scoring 83.7 PPG and shooting 49.2% from the floor, 40.7% from 3, and 78.7% from the free throw line. All of those rank in the upper echelon across basketball. They don't really get to the free throw line, only shooting about 16 free throws per game, and their free throw rate is in the 300s nationally. Miami's just a really efficient offense that can score from anywhere on the floor when it wants to. 

Miami only played six players major minutes with 1-2 other players that will see 10-14 minutes to give their other guys a break. 

Norchad Omier leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage at 17.3 PPG and 9.3 RPG, shooting a blistering 61.9% from the floor. He's a tough guard, so it's good that FSU has so many different bodies and different types of players to throw at him to keep him working. I doubt you'll see any of FSU's three bigs play more than 22 minutes unless one is clearly doing a better job than the others as they try their best to keep him from getting opportunities right at the rim. Florida State will likely try to force him into taking shots from 8-10 feet if they can. 

Benedict Arno... Matthew Cleveland transferred to Miami after two years in Tallahassee, and it seems he's a better fit for their system. He went from averaging 13.8 PPG shooting 44.5% from the floor and 35% from 3 last season to 16.4 PPG, 56% from the floor, and 45.5% from 3 this season. He's fouling less and turning it over less, passing well and getting more steals, but isn't rebounding quite as much, he also doesn't have to with the presence of Omier. As big as his jump in 3PT% is, his attempts have gone from 2.0 last season to 2.8 this year, but he still isn't quite as comfortable there. The big improvement has been inside the arc, shooting 59.4% on 2-point shots, a massive spike from 46.4% last season. A lot of that has to do with better ball spacing on this team than Florida State had last year. 

I expect FSU to be very physical with Cleveland to try and force him off of his game, as he never quite dealt well with physicality. There's nothing wrong with a good, hard-set screen here and there or some extra bumping down low. I don't think it's a coincidence that his worst game of the season came in a blowout loss against Kentucky where he had just 5 points. I'd love for FSU's defense to do something similar to him in this game. 

Wooga Poplar might run away with ACC Most Improved Player, going from 8.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.5 APG and shooting splits of 47.0/37.5/86.7 last season to 15.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 2.3 APG with splits of 49.7/49.3/88.2. He's almost shooting 50/50/90, it's absurd. Some of that obviously is due to more opportunity, but he is so comfortable in the mid-range and from 3 with a hand in his face. He's a guy you really have to close the space out on and make it difficult to get clean looks. I expect FSU to smother him and force him into 3-4 turnovers in this game. 

The main guy to watch is Nijel Pack, who normally averages 13.6 PPG and shooting 44.1% from 3 on about 5 3PA per game. In three of Miami's four losses, he was held under 10 points, and he's only been held under 10 points 4 times this season. If they can do a good job of being on him when he catches the ball, it'd go a long way towards establishing their defense. He does lead the team in assists to pair with his elite shooting. 

Bensley Joseph has taken over as the point guard with Wong moving on. He's not a very efficient scorer, shooting just 39.3% from the floor, but is a terrific defender, leading the team, and is 4th in the ACC in total steals, averaging more than 2 per game. Of the perimeter players, he's the guy you'd like to shoot the most, but even he shoots 36.8% from 3. 

Kyshawn George gives them great minutes off of the bench as a shooter with some size, shooting 42.4% from 3 at 6'8". I imagine he'll play a lot in this game to try and match FSU's size at certain points of the game. 

The other two guys you'll see here and there are AJ Casey and Christian Watson, who don't really do too much. 

Miami is going to try and make this a high-scoring affair. As long as their opponent isn't going crazy from 3 and getting to the free throw line, they're going to win a lot of games because their offense is just that efficient. They don't really get to the free throw line or send their opponent to the free throw line often. While FSU prefers to get up and down the court as well, it may actually benefit them if this becomes a heavy free-throw game. Coach Larranaga was upset with how often Louisville got to the free throw line in that surprising loss, and they shot just 16 free throws. FSU averages 23 free throws per game. It's going to be an interesting chess match. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (10-6 Overall, 4-1 ACC)

Winners of four straight games to start 2024, FSU has a very important four-game stretch ahead of them: at Miami, vs Clemson, at Syracuse, vs North Carolina. Even going 2-2 over these next four puts them in a good position for the rest of the season, but it starts here with Miami. 

You can argue that FSU's success to start 2024 is the quality of opponent, which is somewhat fair; Georgia Tech and Notre Dame aren't exactly world beaters, but Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are good teams. What they can't afford is to lose how they lost to Florida or USF. At the very least, you have to be competitive in this game to slowly win back the trust of fans. 

There will 100% be added motivation in this game. Multiple players were not happy with Matthew Cleveland's decision to transfer to Miami, though the player who objected to it the most is out for the season. 

Hell naw 👎🏽 https://t.co/eG6hoAh6ab

— 21 (@CamRonFletcher1) May 8, 2023

The 'Noles have really ramped up the ball pressure as of late, forcing their last three opponents into turnover rates north of 21%. They're also second in the ACC in steals per game and first in forced turnover rate. It's a unique challenge that Miami has to prepare for, though having a player familiar with FSU's schemes in Cleveland makes me wonder if the 'Noles try anything different to throw them off, whether it be a matchup zone or a diamond pressure in the backcourt. 

One player I'm watching in this game is Darin Green Jr. It was his birthday on Monday, and he had a big game last time these two played: 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 steals in their comeback over the Hurricanes last March. I don't want him shooting 10 threes, but if he can make 3 or 4 on good efficiency while being productive everywhere else, it spreads to the rest of the team. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Projected Starters

Miami

G: Bensley Joseph

G: Nijel Pack

G: Wooga Poplar

G: Benedict Arnold Matthew Cleveland

F: Norchad Omier

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Keys to the Game

Can Florida State's Offense Keep Up?

Miami's offense is potent, averaging 83.7 PPG, and has only scored less than 75 points four times all season. Meanwhile, FSU's offense has only scored 80 points or more in six games. While there will be a lot of emphasis on the defensive side of the ball for FSU, as always, the offense is going to have to find and maintain a rhythm throughout the game. 

What they likely want to do is get to the free throw line, but that's a tough ask in this game. Miami's games rarely have free throws on either side; they don't shoot a on of free throws but neither do their opponents. The 'Canes have lost three of the five games where their opponent shoots more than 15 free throws; Florida State has been at or above 15 free throw attempts in every game over the last month since the UNC game, averaging 25.9 FTAs per game. I doubt they sniff that amount of free throws, but they need to try, and they'd love to get Norchad Omier into foul trouble, if possible. 

Don't Settle for 3s

Part of why Miami rarely fouls is its defensive philosophy. They're going to guard the 3-point line with all of their might, whatever happens on the interior against Norchad Omier, they're okay with. Teams fall into the trap of being baited into shooting tough 3s, and it's hard to win like that against Miami unless you're hitting them. In Miami's 4 losses, teams shoot an average of 23.75 3PA per game and hit 9.5 for 40% shooting. In their wins, teams are an average of 8.1 3PM on 31 3PA for 26.3%. You can't settle for the 3s against this Miami team. 

If FSU can open up drive-and-kick opportunities, with guys like Jalen Warley, Primo Spears, and Jamir Watkins getting into the paint to open up opportunities for everyone else, it becomes a winnable game. If Darin Green Jr. and Baba Miller are just firing away contested 3s, it could become ugly. 

Ball Pressure

Miami has a very good press offense, but they're susceptible to some turnovers as well, with a team turnover rate of 17.5% on the season. If Florida State is playing Florida State basketball - creating turnovers, using 11 players, making Miami work for every basket etc., - you're forcing a very thin Miami team to wear out. If Miami is getting quick baskets and Matthew Cleveland is getting downhill at ease, Miami will be able to dictate the pace and that can't happen. 

For Florida State to give themselves the best chance at a win, they'll likely need to force somewhere around 14 (or more) turnovers. Miami has yet to turn it over more than 15 times in a game this season, but no team has as much length and athleticism as FSU does on the perimeter. 

Game Prediction

Miami is favored by 6.5 points, with a projected total of 157.5. 

Florida State has been playing really good basketball as of late, while Miami has not. Which makes me think Miami is due for a bounce-back game and FSU is due for a stinker. A win here would be monstrous for FSU's chances to get back on the bubble, but it just feels more likely that Miami will find a rhythm again and get back to its winning ways. It's a tough offense to keep up with.

Miami 83, Florida State 78

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