Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Virginia Tech Hokies

The Seminoles look to complete the season sweep on the road against a Virginia Tech squad that is struggling as of late.

Florida State enters Tuesday night against a familiar foe, having played Virginia Tech a little over a month ago in a 77-74 win in Tallahassee. They'll try to complete the season sweep on the road against a Hokies team that is struggling as of late. 

Since Virginia Tech opened Cassell Coliseum in 1962, Florida State has played there 17 times, holding a record of 10-7 and 4-5 since 2010. They haven't lost back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech since 2006 and 2008, so it might be something to monitor with FSU having lost there last year. 

This game tips off at 9 PM on ESPNU, live from the Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Virginia. 

Virginia Tech Hokies Breakdown (13-10 Overall, 5-7 ACC)

Since these two teams have already played, we'll just do a little catching up more so than breaking them down again. 

Virginia Tech is currently on a three-game losing streak, with a loss to Duke at home to start and then road losses to Miami and Notre Dame most recently. They're definitely looking forward to being home once again. 

Hunter Cattoor has been playing at a strong level since the start of January, averaging 14.4 PPG while shooting 50% from 3 and a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. That includes a game against Clemson where he didn't score and only played 14 minutes due to an injury. He's someone Florida State has to keep an eye on at all times and they're hoping their ball pressure can force him into another 4 turnovers like last time. 

Alabama Transfer RB Roydell Williams Models Himself After FSU Football Legend Jameis Winston

Sean Pedulla started January at an All-American type level, averaging 23.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, 5.0 RPG, and shooting 43.8% from 3 in the first six games of January. Turnovers were hurting the team overall though, as he was averaging more than five per game. Since then, it's been a struggle for Pedulla: 13.8 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.0 RPG, 3.8 ToPG, and shooting 29.2% from 3, as he's currently 7 for his last 24. 

It's been an entirely different month for the whole team in general shooting-wise. From January 1 to January 27, they shot 41.6% from 3 and 83.8% from the free throw line, but their 13 turnovers per game were killing them. Since then they've cut down the turnovers to 8.7 per game, but they're shooting just  32.9% from 3 and 64.9% from the free throw line. There's absolutely a world where this is the game where everything connects for them again. 

MJ Collins has been as hot and cold as any player in the ACC. Since the start of January, these are his scoring totals in each game: 10, 2, 6, 3, 7, 11, 7, 17, 0, 2. Those 17 points were against Duke, his 2-point games came against Clemson and Notre Dame. He's kind of due for another big game and he did have 10 against FSU to start January. 

Lynn Kidd is the biggest reason the Hokies have been struggling in ACC play. His stats for the season look solid enough; 13.0 PPG and 6.4 RPG while shooting 65% from the floor. His performance against FSU to start January has been a telling sign though, as high ACC averages drop to 10.7 PPG and 4.7 RPG, shooting 58.1% from the floor. He's simply not taking as many shots and it looks like he's lost a little bit of confidence. 

Tyler Nickel is shooting 45.7% from 3 since the start of January on almost 5 attempts per game and has had some big games, like his 24 points against Clemson. He's moved to the bench the last seven games, so I'm curious if they'll elevate him again to try and spark the 3-point shooting again. 

Robbie Beran is coming off a career-high 13 rebounds in Saturday's loss to Notre Dame. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-10 Overall, 7-4 ACC)

There are some things I didn't quite realize at the moment about the Virginia game, a game where Virginia fans were HOT despite winning. Florida State shot 33 free throws, which is a lot, but it's the most any team has shot against Virginia in almost a decade (Maryland in December 2014) and the first time since a 2019 game against Duke where their opponent shot more than 30 free throws. FSU doesn't usually get the Duke whistle. To shoot that many free throws against Virginia and still lose is borderline impressive. And yet, FSU's free throw rate of 70.2 falls well short of Virginia's bottom-10 ever allowed on KenPom. 

What makes the loss even more impressive is Florida State shot 71% on 2-point shots, the 4th highest percentage Virginia has allowed in the KenPom era. FSU did everything offensively they needed to do to win that game, but the defense was just so bad. 

Virginia's 55.6% outing from 3 was their best of the season, second only to a 12/21 performance against Syracuse and their 46.1% free throw rate was their second-highest of the season. Maybe Jamie Luckie is just a free-throw merchant as an official.  

For the defense to get back on track, they have to get back to forcing turnovers. They're forcing a turnover rate of 20.9%, which is top-30 nationally, but 2 of their last 3 games have been below 20%, both of them losses. For the season, FSU is just 3-6 when forcing a turnover rate south of 20%, one of those wins being North Florida. 

I'm curious to see if Chandler Jackson continues playing well. The last two games he's played, North Carolina and Virginia, he's put up 10 points and 17 points, respectively. Coach Hamilton sat him against Louisville and Boston College for reasons unknown, but he's had three 10+ points outings in ACC play and could be the quality bench guard they're looking for. 

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. 

Virginia Tech's Mekhi Long hasn't played since January 20th with a knee injury but was dressed and available for their game against Miami a week ago. His status is questionable. 

Projected Starters

Virginia Tech

G: Sean Pedulla

G: Hunter Cattoor

G: MJ Collins

F: Robbie Beran

F: Lynn Kidd

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

Keys to the Game

Pedulla and Cattoor's 3-Point Shooting

When these two teams played last month, Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor combined for 45 points while shooting 8/12 from 3, which was somehow a letdown from their last performance in the Tucker Center. Coming off of a game where Florida State allowed Virginia to shoot better than 50% from 3, I expect they'll be hyper-focused on stopping the 3 against Virginia Tech in this matchup. 

Pedulla has been ice cold in the Hokies' recent losing streak, shooting just 4 for 18 from 3 in his last three games. This can't be the game where he finds his rhythm again. 

Where is Lynn Kidd?

A big reason why Florida State beat Virginia Tech in January despite the hot shooting of Pedulla and Cattoor was Kidd's minimal impact, finishing with just 2 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 turnovers. When VT is winning games, he's a big reason why, averaging 16.8 PPG and 7 RPG. In losses, he's averaging just 8.1 PPG and 5.5 RPG. I imagine he'll want to make up for his performance against FSU earlier in the season, but he hasn't played well as of late. 

If Florida State can continue to limit his impact, it should help them on their way to getting a tough road win. 

Florida State's Guards

Outside of Chandler Jackson and Jalen Warley, the guards left a lot to be desired last game, with Darin Green Jr, Josh Nickelberry, and Primo Spears combining for 7 points, 1 assist, shooting 3/13 from the floor and 0/8 from 3. Green especially has played poorly so far in February, averaging just 9 PPG, shooting 37.9% from the floor, 22.2% from 3, and 50% from the free throw line in three games. These guys have to be better as a group, but especially Green, who is due for a big game again at some point. 

Game Prediction

Virginia Tech is favored by 5 points, with a projected total of 153 points. 

Both teams should be playing with a decent amount of desperation given their recent struggles. Florida State has played pretty well on the road in ACC play, outside of the Louisville game, which makes me wonder if they can pull this off. Unfortunately for them, I'll be in attendance and I'm 1-14 in my last 15 FSU Basketball games, with the only win being at Louisville last year (all of these have been road or neutral site games, for the record). So history is not on their side, even if I was at the game in 2020 where Devin Vassell lit up the Hokies from 3. Simply because of that, I'm taking the Hokies. 

Virginia Tech 76, Florida State 72

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