Florida State Falls Short of PFF Preseason Top 10
The Florida State Seminoles are coming off a remarkable 10-3 (5-3 ACC) run in 2022, capping it off with a Cheez-It Bowl victory over the Oklahoma Sooners. Finishing at No. 11 in the AP polls, they return a Heisman candidate in quarterback Jordan Travis and a future first-round draft pick in All-American defensive end Jared Verse.
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Pro Football Focus released its preseason Top-25 ELO rankings and the Seminoles landed at the No. 14 spot placing them second in the ACC. One notch behind the Sooners and six spots behind the LSU Tigers, whom they are set to square off against at Camping World Stadium in the September 3 season opener. The only team in the conference that ranked ahead of them is the Clemson Tigers who came in at No. 6.
From PFF.com:
"Like all ELO systems (including our version for the NFL), PFF ELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent. The PFF ELO rating system measures the former using our unique offensive, defensive and special teams grades, while the latter is determined by the PFF ELO ratings leading up to the game and where the game is played.”
Pro Football Focus' Max Chadwick has his pick in for Travis to win the Heisman and said that the 'Noles will likely outperform their No. 14 ranking by the end of the season.
If you’re looking for a team to outperform their ELO rating, look no further. Florida State is one of my picks to make the College Football Playoff this season and has one of the most stacked rosters in the country. Jordan Travis is my pick to win the Heisman Trophy after leading all Power Five quarterbacks last year with a 91.7 grade last season. Edge defender Jared Verse also returns even though he could’ve been a top-20 pick in the 2023 draft. The Seminoles have a loaded offense in terms of skill position players while the defense has a few potential stars as well.
While PFF can provide a glimpse into how the team faired in previous years, it can more reliably predict outcomes and projections as the season progresses with more recent data to go off of. It is undeniable that Travis, running back Trey Benson, wide receivers Johnny Wilson and Keion Coleman, tight end Jaheim Bell and countless others are listed as highest rated returning players at their respective positions and are poised for success.
The Seminoles should improve on the overall ELO metric as the season moves on.
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