Game Preview: No. 4 Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes

Will the Seminoles bury the Hurricanes for the third straight year?

Austin Veazey | Nov 9, 2023

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Florida State sits 9-0 and has already clinched a berth in the ACC Championship Game with just one conference game left: the 6-3 Miami Hurricanes. It's the most important game of the year for a lot of fans on both sides, and with Miami reeling following an ugly loss to NC State, FSU is going to get one last all-you've-got effort from the 'Canes.

It's another ABC game for Florida State, their 8th of the year, with this one being a 3:30 p.m. kick since Miami hasn't been good enough to be given the primetime slot over Texas/TCU. These are usually tough battles, and is a fairly even series overall with Miami holding a slight 35-32 edge, so can Mike Norvell get FSU one game closer and extend the winning streak over Miami to three?

Seminole Headlines

Charlotte Bound, But the Job Isn't Finished

For the first time since 2014, the last time FSU won the ACC, the Seminoles will be one of the two teams in Charlotte to compete for an ACC Championship. It looks like Louisville will be the other representative, but anything can happen this month.

Meanwhile, Florida State still has a job to do, and that's to continue winning, starting with Miami. Two rivalry games in the last three games of the season could spell trouble for FSU's Playoff dreams, but it also gives them a chance to really lock in despite an appearance in the ACC Championship Game already set in stone. I'm sure Jordan Travis would love to send Miami home with another loss, as this game two years ago is really where his success started, with the famous 4th and 14 conversion to Andrew Parchment.

Freshmen Making an Impact

There was much hubbub about nothing early in the season, with the Miami beat making a claim that FSU wouldn't play or develop freshmen, and the Pitt game showed exactly why that was false.

Conrad Hussey had a huge impact, with one interception and forced fumble. Vandrevius Jacobs caught his first pass for 19 yards, before getting knocked out towards the end of the game. Destyn Hill had a big catch and run of 29 yards despite being far from 100% healthy. Rodney Hill had 52 total yards receiving and rushing. Omar Graham had four total tackles. Even guys like Justin Cryer, Blake Nichelson, and Ashlynd Barker were able to get in and get a tackle.

While you don't usually want to rely on freshmen, getting them meaningful snaps is going to be beneficial in the long-term success of this program. Destyn Hill, Rodney Hill, and Conrad Hussey should continue having big roles this season; they've been good players.

A Little FSU/Miami History

I mentioned at the beginning that Miami holds a slight 35-32 edge in this series, but Florida State has really dominated since 2005, winning 12 of 18 games. It's really been a series of dominant stretches overall. Miami started off with a stretch winning 8 of 9 games between 1951 and 1962, before Florida State rattled off 7 straight, with all of the games being played in Miami. The Hurricanes won 3 of the next 4 before FSU won two more, then Miami really turned on the jets, winning 11 of 15 games from 1980 to 1994, which makes sense given how good of a program Miami was in the 80s. The 'Noles got back on track a little bit, winning 5 straight from 1995-1999, then Miami had 6 straight wins from 2000-2004, including a meeting in the Orange Bowl at the end of the 2003 season going in Miami's favor. And then that brings us to the current stretch since 2005 where FSU has won 12 of 18, including a run of 7 straight from 2010 to 2016.

When either team has won two straight in the series, the owner of the winning streak is 10-3 in the third game. FSU holds the longest winning streak in the series, winning seven games in a row twice, once from 1963 to 1972 and again from 2010 to 2016. Miami's longest run is six straight, which they've done once. The home team is just 23-27, part of the reason why this such a historic and iconic rivalry, since they started flipping between Miami and Tallahassee in 1973. From 1951 to 1972, 14 of the 16 games were played in Miami. 30 games between the two have ended in a margin of one score or less.

One other thing I wanted to check: my mom had a theory that whoever had the most rushing yards won the game. It's somewhat true; since 1979 (which is the furthest back I can find accurate box scores), the team with the most rushing yards is 31-14, but it really hasn't been the case recently. It's currently on a stretch of five straight games with the winner having the most rushing yards, but from 2001-2017, it was completely 50/50. That stretch included some absolute barn burners, including 2006 where Miami had 2 rushing yards and Florida State had 1. It's one of those rivalries.

For those looking for minor bragging rights, Florida State has an all-time better winning percentage (.670 for FSU to Miami's .627), has been to more bowl games, has a better bowl winning percentage, has more conference championships (in any conference, since Miami has not won an ACC title), has more Heisman winners, more consensus All-Americans, more weeks ranked in the AP Poll, and more weeks ranked at #1 in the AP Poll. All of this despite Miami's first season coming in 1936, while Florida State didn't start until 1954, and Miami playing 185 games more than FSU.

Burning Questions

Will Miami Make a Change at QB?

Mario Cristobal has declined to comment on whether or not there'll be a change at quarterback for the 'Canes. Should they make a change? I certainly think so. Tyler Van Dyke has been horrendous in ACC play, throwing 5 TDs to 10 INTs in four conference games. If you take out the UNC game, the worst ACC defense he's played, it's just 1 TD to 8 INTs. Meanwhile, true freshman Emory Williams, a former 3-star prospect, was serviceable in the win over Clemson, but wasn't anything spectacular.

To me, it's clear Van Dyke has checked out, and is playing through some injuries, and it doesn't seem to be getting any better, you might as well look towards the future and see how the young guy can handle nerves in a big test against Florida State. Will they actually make the change at QB this week? I doubt it as of right now, but anything can happen with Cristobal, but Florida State will be ready for either.

Whoever is throwing the football may want to get Xavier Restrepo more involved, as he hasn't been over 50 yards receiving since the UNC game.

Can Florida State Shore Up Their Rush Defense?

If Miami is going to have any success on offense, it's going to come by running the football. They're averaging well over 5 yards per carry, and have a good stable of running backs in Henry Parrish Jr, Donald Chaney Jr, and Mark Fletcher Jr. Parrish and Chaney have been dealing with some injures, combining for just five snaps against NC State, Parrish had 3 against Virginia while Chaney didn't play, and Parrish didn't play against Clemson.

Whoever is the running back at any given time is capable of breaking off consistent rushes of 8-10 yards, and Florida State hasn't been the greatest at containing runs, allowing four yards per carry and is missing a little under ten tackles per game. Miami's offense revolves around making defenders miss one-on-one, whether it's a quick screen or a running back in the hole one-on-one with a linebacker/defensive back.

The goal is to get Miami behind the sticks. If FSU can stop them for no or minimal gains on first down, their downfield attacks are not very successful. Let's break down their 3rd downs in ACC play. For the whole season, the 'Canes are about the same as FSU, converting about 43% of their 3rd downs. In ACC play, that goes down to 39.7%, going 29/73. They're extremely successful in 3rd and shorts (which StatBroadcast defines as 4 yards or shorter) in that time span: 19/27 for 70.4%. That means in 3rd + 5 or longer, they're just 10/44 for 22.7%. If you can force them into 3rd and longs (9+ yards), they have virtually no shot, just 1/20 for 5%.

For Florida State to have success defensively, it starts on first downs and limiting Miami's gains. From there, everything else should take care of itself.

What is Florida State's WR Corp Looking Like?

Both of FSU's star WRs in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson were out this past weekend, as well as Deuce Spann and Hykeem Williams, while Kentron Poitier and Destyn Hill were limited. That left Florida State with Ja'Khi Douglas, Darion Williamson, Vandrevius Jacobs, and the tight ends and running backs as your targets for Jordan Travis. It's pretty remarkable he was able to throw for 360 passing yards, all things considered.

That being said, you'd like for the room to look a little healthier this week. Travis is hopeful he'll get Coleman and Wilson back, while another week should help Hill and Poitier see some more time. Douglas was big last weekend, but I think Coach Norvell would like to rely less on him this coming weekend.

Game Forecast

The Florida State Seminoles are favorites by 14.5 points with a projected total of 50.5, according to FanDuel.

I've had a feeling since the Pitt game that Florida State would win this game big. Miami's offense has been almost non-existent in ACC play, outside of the UNC game, and Tyler Van Dyke has been horrible, to say the least. Even if they decide to make a change at QB, that would mean starting a true freshman in his second career start in Doak Campbell, and that's a tough ask.

FSU will have to contain Rueben Bain as a pass rusher, and Kamren Kinchens is always capable of making a big play in the secondary for Miami, but the Hurricanes haven't shown anything offensively recently to make me think they stand a chance for an entire 60 minutes. I think the 'Noles roll by a few touchdowns and put on a show for the 100+ recruits visiting for this game as long as the receiver room is healthier.

Florida State 38 Miami 13

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Published Nov 9, 2023

AUSTIN VEAZEY

Lead basketball writer; Former FSU Men's Basketball Manager from 2016-2019