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Game Preview: No. 4 Florida State Seminoles vs No. 16 Duke Blue Devils

The Seminoles are gearing up for their second top-25 matchup of the season in a crucial home game against Duke.

Austin Veazey

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Florida State is back in primetime on ABC as they end their three-game October home stand against the 16th-ranked Duke Blue Devils, who come into this game boasting a defense allowing less than 10 points per game. The logo is really representing here, as ESPN gave this game the 7:30 ABC nod over Clemson/Miami, who will play at 8:00 on the ACC Network, and fans should be rewarded yet again.

READ MORE: Duke HC Mike Elko Says There's a 'Chance' Riley Leonard Plays Against FSU

Duke has never beaten Florida State, a perfectly imperfect 0-21, and the last time they were ranked this high was in 1994, when the 16th-ranked Blue Devils strolled into Tallahassee, having beaten Clemson earlier in the year, and got absolutely walloped by a score of 59-20. We'll see if history can repeat itself Saturday night. This game has major ACC Championship implications as these are two of the last three teams that haven't lost a conference game yet. 

This is Florida State's homecoming, and the coaches will be rocking some Nike N7 turquoise for the Seminole Heritage game, much to my own personal happiness as someone who spent time around the basketball team and watched them really show off their unique uniforms for close to a decade now. 

Seminole Headlines

Offensive Line Depth Tested

Mike Norvell and Alex Atkins have seen their offensive line depth tested recently, as Robert Scott, Bless Harris, and Maurice Smith have all missed time this season, while Darius Washington left the game last week against Syracuse. While Scott and Smith are back in the lineup, you can tell they're not 100%, and Harris should be returning this week. We've been asking ourselves on the podcast what Florida State's best five up front would be, and for a while, we thought Washington was a part of that. Now with him at best questionable against a very talented Duke defense, it's going to be interesting to see what group Atkins and Norvell roll out there. 

On the bright side, Casey Roddick and Jeremiah Byers are coming off their best games at Florida State with very impressive performances against Syracuse, while Keiondre Jones had the Pancake of the Week against Virginia Tech. Norvell and Atkins have switched around running schemes to make blocking assignments easier, but with guys in and out of the lineup, it makes it tough to figure out that best 5, which is why they went out and grabbed three linemen in the portal. 

Don't Look Now, The Defense Might Be REALLY Good

Everyone loves to pile onto Defensive Coordinator Adam Fuller for gameplans against scrambling quarterbacks or over-using the depth of the team with too many rotations early in the game, but this defense is quietly putting together an impressive season that currently sits Top 20 in points per game allowed at 18.3 PPG, red zone scoring percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, and in 4th quarter points per game. The yardage is still something they're working on, but they've done a great job of keeping teams out of the end zone. 

People also have to keep in mind that this Florida State defense made LSU's offense and Jayden Daniels look mortal, with just 24 points (7 coming in garbage time), and Daniels was just a mere 22/37 for 346 yards (again, a big chunk of these in garbage time) with 1 TD and 1 INT, which pales in comparison to his averages of 325 yards, 3.5 Passing TDs, and 0.3 INTs while completing 76% of his passes in every game since then. LSU's offense has averaged 44.2 points per game in the five SEC games they've played since playing FSU, and have only failed to score 40 points or more on one other occasion. I can understand the overreactions to the Boston College and Clemson games, but I think it's clear that those are the outliers at this point as the team was dealing with some sort of community illness. 

Duke's Defense is Also Really Good

As much as Florida State's defense has improved, Duke's defense has been phenomenal this season, holding teams to less than 10 points per game, and they have the second-best red zone scoring defense in the country, with them and Michigan pacing the field by a healthy margin. Notre Dame has been the only team to score more than 20, and even that took an improbable 4th and 18 conversion on the last drive of the game and a long rushing TD to accomplish. 

It's kind of a similar story to FSU where some teams have been able to move the ball up and down the field, but then stall out as they get closer to scoring chances, a la Clemson, who had 422 yards against Duke, but could only muster up 7 points because of five turnovers down the stretch. They also haven't played an offense like Florida State with the playmaking they have all over the field. 

Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson (who should be good to go this week) will bring a challenge on the outside that Duke simply hasn't seen, and I expect FSU to try and test Duke's ability to cover these guys early and often, while still establishing the run. They found success against Syracuse, who give up almost a full yard less per run than Duke, and even though DeWayne Carter and Aeneas Peebles will provide challenges on the inside, they will wear down a little as the game goes along. This is very easily the most realistic chance FSU has had to see their 30+ point streak come to an end, but it does seem like they've found a little bit of a rhythm recently. 

Burning Questions

Is Riley Leonard Playing for Duke? 

Star Duke QB Riley Leonard suffered a high ankle sprain at the end of the Notre Dame game, and didn't play last week against NC State. Head Coach Mike Elko said on his radio show that Leonard's "day-to-day" and that he "was out there practicing today and throwing the ball around... (but) we will not put him in position to put that ankle at risk. But, I do think there is a chance that we're able to get him back by Saturday healthy and capable of playing at the level he's capable of playing at."

As someone who has had two pretty serious ankle injuries myself, I'd be really surprised if Leonard is on the field Saturday for Duke, and if he is, he won't be close to 100%. That's a pretty serious limp in the video above from this past Saturday, and I don't see that going away in just a week. He's a player who thrives on extending plays with his legs and absolutely has the ability to tuck it and run, and as crazy as it might be to say, it might be more beneficial for FSU's success if he plays not at 100% because he wouldn't be mobile and it could be open season for FSU's defense. 

Anything is possible, but I just don't see him playing this weekend and, based on the spread for the game, Vegas doesn't either. Coach Fuller has said his defense will be prepared for whichever QB Duke trots out. 

If Leonard Doesn't Play, What Does Duke's Offense Look Like?

Last week was boom or bust for Duke's offense against NC State. Here is how their four scoring drives and 24 points were acquired. 

First touchdown: 2 plays, 90 yards, where backup QB Henry Belin IV hit Jalon Calhoun on a sluggo-type route for a 69-yard touchdown up the sideline. 

Next was a field goal that started on their own 2-yard line, but they benefitted from a defensive pass interference and a roughing the passer call to move them 30 yards downfield. They would get 31 more yards on the drive and kick a long 52-yard field goal. 

Second touchdown: Duke linebacker Tre Freeman picks off NC State's MJ Morris 2 plays into the drive, and runs it back to the 8-yard line. Belin IV would capitalize one play later with a pass to tight end Jeremiah Hasley, who led the team with two receptions. 

Third touchdown: Duke takes over after a solid NC State punt pins Duke inside their own 20. First play of the series, running back Jordan Waters cuts left at the line of scrimmage after an over pursuit by NC State, and he takes it 83 yards to the house. 

Duke had more total offense on those two big chunk TDs (152 yards) than they had for the rest of the game (149 yards) on just 40 other plays, good for an average of 3.7 yards per play. NC State ran 70 plays and just couldn't get any scoring opportunities. 

So if you can make it eliminate the explosive plays and dumb defensive penalties, I don't think this Duke offense will be able to do anything against Florida State's defense. That being said, Florida State's offense has to hold up their end of the bargain by not turning the ball over and not giving Duke any prime opportunities to only have to go 20-25 yards to be able to score. Belin IV was just 4/12 in the game, and now he'll likely have to make his first career road passing attempt in Doak Campbell Stadium under the lights on FSU's Homecoming. That's not an easy task.

Game Forecast

Florida State currently sits as favorites by 14.5 points and a projected total of 49 points. 

This really has a chance for it to be a much closer-than-expected game, but it also has Georgia/Kentucky potential if Riley Leonard doesn't play. I don't think he plays, and I don't think Duke is able to build any rhythm on FSU. This has the feeling of a game that will be close early, as Duke's defense has been so good all season, and it may take a while for FSU to adjust. I think the 30+ point streak comes to an end, but I also don't think there's a result that would surprise me at all. The running game keeps Florida State at a comfortable distance away from Duke in the second half, as Duke's passing attack struggles to find any momentum. 

Give me Florida State with a win on homecoming 27-6. 

READ MORE: Jordan Travis Believes There Is Still More for Florida State Offense

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Austin Veazey
AUSTIN VEAZEY

Lead basketball writer; Former FSU Men's Basketball Manager from 2016-2019

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