Game Preview: No. 5 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators
Despite all the injuries this weekend for both teams, nothing has changed in how the two teams feel about each other, and how desperate each team will be, just for different reasons. Florida State enters the game at 11-0, with Tate Rodemaker looking to lead the 'Noles to a win over their rival in Gainesville, while Max Brown hopes to get the 5-6 Florida Gators to bowl eligibility.
It'll be weird for both fanbases to see backup quarterbacks take the field first, but the show must go on, and there's a lot to play for.
The final game of the regular season for both teams will be at 7 p.m. on ESPN, from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida.
Seminole Headlines
Battle of the Backups
It was a heartbreaking weekend for Florida State fans seeing Jordan Travis lay on the field, with his leg bent in a direction it's not supposed to be bent. The cinematic recap and posts from players in the hospital supporting their quarterback have felt surreal in what is supposed to be a triumphant season for Seminoles fans. This just wasn't how anyone saw this playing out. With the way Jordan Travis pulled this football program out of the mud, it just felt like he was due for one more huge moment, not to be in an ambulance on senior night. Even typing this, it still somehow doesn't feel real despite being a few days away from the injury.
Florida fans aren't feeling too much better, as they also saw their quarterback go down with an injury Saturday night, with Graham Mertz suffering a broken collarbone. So we have a battle of backup quarterbacks in Gainesville, as Max Brown will make the start. But Florida has been dealing with key injuries all year, down their starting center most of the season, linebackers Jack Pyburn and Shemar James are done for the season, left tackle Austin Barber missed the last game against Missouri with an "upper body" injury, and depth pieces like wide receivers Caleb Douglas and Andy Jean and tight end Jonathan Odom have been dealing with injuries too. Neither team is the healthiest right now.
Coach Norvell had made an emphasis on establishing depth across the team, and it should pay off in a time like this.
Control What You Can Control
There's been a lot of discussion about Florida State's placement in the College Football Playoff and AP Polls, or players being nominated for player of the year awards and whatever else. Pundits have been having the conversation all week; "Should Florida State be penalized for Jordan Travis being hurt," or "What happens if Alabama wins the SEC Championship, do they jump anyone?"
Maybe they do get penalized, maybe they don't. Maybe Alabama wins, maybe they don't. As great of a player as Jordan Travis was for Florida State, FSU has a good chance against Florida in a rivalry and Louisville in the ACC Championship next weekend to show they're a great team outside of just Travis. Control what you can control, win football games, and if they're 13-0 come the Sunday following Championship Weekend, they'll be in the Playoffs.
Billy Napier's Job Security
Florida enters this game looking to gain bowl eligibility. It's the fifth straight chance they've had to get it. With losses to Georgia, Arkansas, LSU, and Missouri, Florida State could give Florida its first season with five straight losses since 2017, the season Jim McElwain was fired. There were some other factors leading to McElwain's dismissal, but it does bring up an interesting debate, if Florida drops this game, should he be fired?
The consensus has been that as long as their strong recruiting class holds, Napier should be fine. They were once 3rd in 247's team recruiting rankings, but have now slipped to 5th with three decommitments from blue chip prospects recently, and could see more if they lose this game. While Napier is a really good offensive play-caller, if he loses a hold on some of this class and FSU shows they're much better than Florida on the field with a backup QB, I could see a world where Napier is dismissed. He has to feel some pressure, even though I think he'll be safe for at least one more season.
Burning Questions
Can Florida State Stop The Run?
Florida State has been... average at best at defending the run sometimes. grading out 41st on PFF in terms of rush defense, and they're 46th nationally in rushing yards allowed at about 140 yards per game. Florida has a very good rushing attack between Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, each player having rushed for 710 yards at well over 5 yards per carry, and they're threats in the screen game as well.
With a true freshman quarterback in the game, who is more of a runner right now, Florida State's defensive line has to step up, beat blocks, and make plays. If they can't shed blocks and the linebackers aren't sound in their run fits, it could be a long game.
What Can We Expect From Florida State's Offense?
Tate Rodemaker seems to do best with RPOs with slants and posts in the route tree at wide receiver. We've seen him use Johnny Wilson's height last year in the Louisville game too. While Rodemaker can run, he's not as elusive as Jordan Travis, and quite frankly no one is.
I'm expecting Coach Norvell to ease Rodemaker into this game: screens, quick reads, and relying on the running back room early seem like the best plan. In what should be a hostile environment, if they come out firing with Rodemaker and the offense isn't moving, that place is going to get loud quickly. Stay ahead of the chains and make reads easy.
Will FSU Execute and Make Better Decisions on 3rd or 4th and Shorts?
Florida State has really struggled on 3rd/4th and shorts the last few games, and it's partially due to the offensive line not getting much push. When they're allowing North Alabama to get up the field, you have to imagine Florida can as well. There's no reason to get too cute with the playcalling in this game, I especially don't want to see a speed slot option with Rodemaker like we saw last weekend.
If FSU is in field goal range, they need to prioritize taking the points early. Even if it's 4th and 1 from the 31 and you feel like you can get it, getting some points on the board could be big for Rodemaker's confidence. We saw him last year against Louisville struggle early before finding his stride down the stretch. Getting any points could help him get in that rhythm.
Game Forecast
Florida State is favored by 6.5 points, with a projected total of 49.5.
I think this is going to be ugly early as both teams and play-callers figure out what is working well. Like a 6-3 or a 10-6 halftime kind of score. As bad as Florida's defense is, you'd hope Florida State would be able to find ways to push them around in the run game, and we know Florida's offense features a good running game. They're going to do whatever it takes to make life easier on the backups. In the end, FSU is just the better team and should be able to get this done, even if it's likely closer than my heart will be able to take.
FSU 34 Florida 27
READ MORE: Florida State Hopped By Washington Huskies In Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
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