NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Duke Blue Devils

Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as Florida State prepares for its second top-25 matchup of the 2023 season.

The Seminoles will wrap up a three-game homestand when No. 16 Duke travels to Tallahassee on Saturday night. The contest will mark the second AP Top 25 matchup for Florida State this season and it's imperative for the program to put on a show with the unveiling of the College Football Playoff Rankings right around the corner.

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This is not going to be an easy one as the Blue Devils bring a formidable team under second-year head coach Mike Elko into Doak Campbell Stadium. The main question for Duke will be if starting quarterback Riley Leonard can suit up after suffering a serious ankle injury a couple of weeks ago. If so, this one gets a lot more interesting on paper.

Florida State and Duke are one of the three ACC teams that remain undefeated in conference play. The Seminoles are first in the league in scoring while the Blue Devils hold the edge over the field in points allowed per game. Something has got to give when these two meet up in primetime.

Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Blue Devils.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

This is going to be a fun game in Tallahassee. A packed Doak Campbell Stadium in primetime, Kirk Herbstreit and Chris Fowler on the call, and two teams with different strengths grappling to find mismatches.

I was confident throughout the offseason that Duke would end up being tougher than the average Florida State fan was considering. However, even I didn't foresee the Blue Devils getting off to a 5-1 start. They really should even be undefeated since it took a couple of improbable plays from Notre Dame to even hand them their first defeat.

Regardless Florida State is going to need to be ready to go out of the gate against a defense that has only allowed 59 points in six games. The Seminoles are going to need to take advantage of every single offensive possession and not turn the ball over after some frustrating moments in the last outing against Syracuse.

On the flip side, this really all comes down to whether Riley Leonard is about to suit up for Duke. FSU's defense is clicking on all cylinders after only surrendering 20 total points over the last two weeks. The Seminoles forced Syracuse to punt nine times while only giving up points on 1/12 drives.

I think this will be close throughout the first half prior to Florida State pulling away in the final two quarters. I also doubt we see Leonard and that ends up being a detriment for the Blue Devils on offense.

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 31, Blue Devils 20

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

I have had this one circled since the spring. The growth the Blue Devils have made in the last two years is super impressive under Mike Elko and I think this is going to be a true test for Mike Norvell and his team. Sustaining drives and not allowing takeaways is going to be key for FSU. I’m keeping a close eye on Florida State’s dinged up offensive line against Duke’s physical front. 

If the Seminoles defense plays like it did last week, they’ll be able to put this game away early but if Riley Leonard does make his comeback Saturday night, things will get a bit more interesting. I’ve got FSU winning but a Ryan Fitzgerald field goal in the 4th seals it. 

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 27, Blue Devils 24

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

This really has a chance for it to be a much closer-than-expected game, but it also has Georgia/Kentucky potential if Riley Leonard doesn't play. I don't think he plays, and I don't think Duke is able to build any rhythm on FSU. This has the feeling of a game that will be close early, as Duke's defense has been so good all season, and it may take a while for FSU to adjust. 

I think the 30+ point streak comes to an end, but I also don't think there's a result that would surprise me at all. The running game keeps Florida State at a comfortable distance away from Duke in the second half, as Duke's passing attack struggles to find any momentum.

Give me Florida State with a win on homecoming

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 27, Blue Devils 6

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Florida State will return to Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday night to compete in their third consecutive home defense, and the stakes for this one are a tad bit higher than we all first expected. The 'Noles are riding high on a six-game win streak and a favorable national ranking, but they aren't the only ones getting their first taste of success in some time. Under the supervision of head coach Mike Elko, Duke finds themselves ranked 16th in the AP Poll and well within striking distance of a shot at the ACC Championship game. Duke-FSU is a top-25 matchup in Doak Campbell Stadium during the prime-time slot. I don't think I would've predicted that a few months ago. Nonetheless, here we are, and the gravity of this matchup is not lost on anyone. Florida State's goals still remain high, but if any team remains on the schedule from the ACC can derail those hopes, it's Duke.

Duke's recent successes are no fluke. Head coach Mike Elko has his team playing elite levels of football. And that can be chalked up to a variety of factors. Primarily, the Blue Devils have themselves a young star at quarterback. Junior Riley Leonard has been a driving force behind their success, and his performance has garnered him some NFL attention. He's thrown for 912 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 interception on a roughly 63% completion rate. On the other sideline, however, is a Florida State team that has been heralded as one of the nation's most talented squads, and that "on paper" talent has been realized as of late. Their impact players have found no shortage of success: Keon Coleman has found the end zone 7 times through the air, Johnny Wilson has 3 receiving games over 90 yards (2 of which went for over 100), Jordan Travis has played statistically better football year to date, so on and so forth.

This game can go down one of two ways: (1) the offenses flex their muscle and we get ourselves a good old-fashioned shootout or (2) the defenses are able to provide some resistance. Both defenses have their ups and downs. For Duke, they are proficient at stopping the run, holding teams to an average of 133.8 yards per game, and they're not too bad in the secondary with a respectable 164.7 passing yards allowed per game. For Florida State, the marquee group is that front seven, and they've done well preventing the run, averaging 141.3 yards allowed per game. Their pass defense, however, leaves much to be desired. The 'Noles will need to tighten that up because if Leonard does suit up for the Blue Devils, he is more than capable of exposing those weaknesses.

ESPN's FPI has the match predictor at 80% in favor of the Seminoles and Vegas oddsmakers have set the line at (-14.5) in their favor as well. Obviously, Leonard's status is something to hold your breath about, but if you're a Seminole fan, walking into this game with confidence isn't as easy regardless because those scares against BC and Clemson inevitably slip into the back of your mind. Despite the inconsistencies we've seen from them earlier in the season, however, I believe the last two weeks have done a lot for Florida State's confidence and have allowed them to find another gear entirely. Duke's inspiring play and fast twitch ability will keep them in the game for quite some time, but it's that clutch gene and winning know-how the 'Noles have discovered as of late that will get them across the finish line with a win. Plus, a sold-out home crowd never hurts the cause. 

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 38, Blue Devils 24

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

To me, the keys to this matchup are whether or not the Duke defense can slow down FSU enough to keep the game in reach and if Riley Leonard is healthy enough to survive Florida State’s pass rush. If FSU doesn’t turn the ball over and plays a sound game, this matchup favors the Seminoles. 

I think Elko has a great team and this is a prove-it game for the ‘Noles. However, FSU is more talented, has a home-field advantage, and has a deeper roster. I’m going with FSU pulling away in the second half. 

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 31, Blue Devils 21

Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)

Duke had been a surprise team this season, and they’re going to be able to string together a few big games to make this game feel close, though the Seminoles will be able to come away with the victory.

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 35, Blue Devils 24

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

I think this will be a defensive showcase for both teams as Duke hasn't allowed more than three touchdowns against any team this season, while FSU has made talented and experienced offenses look clueless multiple times.

With the uncertainty of Duke's quarterback situation, and the Seminoles being able to make so many big plays on offense, whether it is big runs from Trey Benson and Lawrence Toafili, or game-changing catches from Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, I think the 'Noles will be able to squeak by in this matchup as long as they continue the offensive production they have had in their past few games.

With the game being a sold-out night game in Doak Campbell Stadium, I think Duke will struggle with the atmosphere as they haven't had a chance at playing in such a big stadium all season.

2023 Season Prediction Record: 6-0

Seminoles 24, Blue Devils 17

CONSENSUS: Florida State (7-0)

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