Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series: Indiana Reloads Entering Post-TJD Era

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season. Next up, we'll discuss the Indiana Hoosiers, who lost a major chunk of scoring but bring in some of the conference's top-ranked talent.

Indiana will look vastly different from the team that went 23-12 last season, finished tied for second in the Big Ten and earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament during coach Mike Woodson's second year. 

Four starters and seven total Hoosiers are gone, but Woodson brings in the nation's ninth-ranked recruiting class, consisting of three transfers and three freshmen. Indiana has plenty of high-upside players, but whether they gel together and reach their full potential is to be determined. 

In our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, we'll break down what each team lost and gained this offseason, then provide analysis on the team's outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Let's take a look at the Hoosiers.

(player rankings per On3 Industry Average) 

What they lost

• Pro/no eligibility: F Trayce Jackson-Davis, G Jalen Hood-Schifino, F Race Thompson, F Miller Kopp
• Transfer portal: G Tamar Bates (Missouri), F Jordan Geronimo (Maryland), C Logan Duncomb (Xavier)
• By the numbers: Indiana lost four starters, including first-team All-American Jackson-Davis (20.9 ppg, 10.8 rpg), Big Ten Freshman of the Year Hood-Schifino (13.5 ppg), top 3-point shooter Miller Kopp (44.4 percent) and veteran forward Thompson (8.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg). Bates (6.1 ppg) and Geronimo (4.2 ppg) were two of Indiana's top contributors off the bench. 

What they gained

• Transfer portal: C Kel'el Ware (6.6 ppg at Oregon), F Anthony Walker (2.8 ppg at Miami), F Payton Sparks (13.3 ppg at Ball State)
• Freshmen: F Mackenzie Mgbako (No. 12), PG Gabe Cupps (No. 103), G Jakai Newton (No. 125)

Roster

• Xavier Johnson, 6-foot-3 senior guard
• Trey Galloway, 6-foot-4 senior guard
• Anthony Leal, 6-foot-5 senior guard
• Anthony Walker, 6-foot-9 senior forward
• Payton Sparks, 6-foot-9 junior forward
• Malik Reneau, 6-foot-9 sophomore forward
• CJ Gunn, 6-foot-6 sophomore guard
• Kaleb Banks, 6-foot-7 sophomore forward
• Kel'el Ware, 7-foot sophomore center
• Mackenzie Mgbako, 6-foot-8 freshman forward
• Gabe Cupps, 6-foot-2 freshman guard
• Jakai Newton, 6-foot-3 freshman guard
• Scholarships available: 1

Indiana Hoosiers guard Xavier Johnson (0) dribbles against Xavier Musketeers guard Souley Boum (0) in the first half at Cintas Center / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Biggest concerns

Indiana was 12th in the Big Ten with 200 3-pointers made last season, but shot an efficient 36.8 percent, good for fourth in the conference. Indiana knocked down open looks at a good rate when available, but so much of its offense revolved around Trayce Jackson-Davis in the paint and Jalen Hood-Schifino in the mid range. Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates and Hood-Schifino accounted for 68.5 percent of Indiana's 3-point production, and all three have left the team. Woodson will be forced to adapt Indiana's offensive style based on the new personnel, which could take some time. 

So where will the outside shooting come from? Xavier Johnson played just 11 games last season due to a broken foot, but he shot 38.3 percent from beyond the arc across 34 starts in 2021-22. Trey Galloway improved his 3-point percentage from 21.4 to 46.2 between his sophomore and junior seasons, and Indiana will need him to increase his volume after attempting just two per game last year. Sophomore CJ Gunn and freshman Gabe Cupps had strong 3-point shooting reputations in high school, and they could carve out a much bigger roles if their outside shots are falling. Maybe Anthony Leal, the 2020 Indiana Mr. Basketball winner, will get a chance this year, but there will be tough competition for minutes. Five-star freshman Mackenzie Mgbako figures to play a major role right away, and he was a talented 3-point shooter at Roselle Catholic in New Jersey.

Outside of 3-point shooting concerns, Indiana has to replace the first-team All-American Jackson-Davis, who controlled both sides of the floor last year. Indiana brought in three transfer forwards, Ware, Anthony Walker and Payton Sparks, to fill this void by committee, along with returning sophomore Malik Reneau, who showed promise as a freshman but often dealt with foul trouble. 

Altogether, Johnson and Galloway are really the only proven commodities in the Big Ten.

Reasons for optimism

The NCAA approved Xavier Johnson's medical hardship waiver, granting him a sixth year of eligibility. Johnson was arguably Indiana's best player down the stretch of the 2021-22 season, averaging 16.6 points and 6.5 assists in the final 10 games as Indiana made a late push for the NCAA Tournament. He returns as one of the top point guards in the Big Ten, on both sides of the court. 

Galloway proved he can be an efficient 3-point shooter, and the logical next step is increasing his volume. He and Johnson are already one of the top back court duos in the Big Ten when it comes to perimeter defense.

Indiana brings in the Big Ten's top-ranked freshman, 6-foot-8 small forward Mackenzie Mgbako, who can score all over the court and will have plenty of opportunities. Mgbako and Kel'el Ware, a 7-foot rim protector who can stretch the floor, are projected first round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft, giving Indiana two of the conference's highest-upside players.

The bottom line

Indiana has arguably the highest variance of any Big Ten team this season. If players like Ware and Mgbako reach their potential, and Galloway, Gunn or others become high-volume 3-point shooters, Indiana could have an even higher ceiling than last year's team that earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The roster is certainly more suited to how Woodson wants to play, with less emphasis on post-oriented play. The downside of such significant roster turnover and relying on unproven talent, though, is that team chemistry may never fully click and players might fall short of their lofty upside.

On Friday, look forward to the next part of our Big Ten Offseason Evaluation Series, featuring the Michigan Wolverines.

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