Indiana Opens As Slight Favorite in Sunday's Game at Penn State

Despite the fact that Penn State hasn't beaten a top-100 team all season and lost both Big Ten games by double digits, Indiana is just a very small favorite over the Nittany Lions when they get together on Sunday in Happy Valley. Here's all the point spread numbers you need to know for both teams, and why there's money to be made, based on analytics.

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Indiana has played a lot of close games with Penn State through the years, and the oddsmakers are expecting another one on Sunday when the two teams resume Big Ten play here in Happy Valley.

According to our SISportsbook.com gambling website, 10-2 Indiana is just a modest 2.5-point favorite over 5-5 Penn State in today's 4 p.m. ET game at the Bryce Jordan Center. For all the information on how to watch, CLICK HERE.

• 1 P.M. ET UPDATE: As expected, the line has moved up on all gambling sites checked at this hour. Indiana is now a 4.5-point favorite on most of them.

The Hoosiers have a 10-2 overall record on the season and are 1-1 in the Big Ten. They are 8-4 against the point spread, but are 0-2 straight up and against the spread on the road, however. 

Here are their results thus far:

• Nov. 9 — Beat Eastern Michigan 68-62 as a 24-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 12 — Beat Northern Illinois 85-49 as a 25.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 17 — Beat St. John's 76-74 as a 6-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 21 — Beat Louisiana 76-44 as an 11.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 23 — Beat Jackson State 70-35 as a 22.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 27 — Beat Marshall 90-79 as a 10.5-point favorite (won)
• Nov. 30 — Lost to Syracuse 112-110 as a 2.5-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 4 — Beat Nebraska 68-55 as an 11-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 8 — Lost to Wisconsin 64-59 as a 4.5-point underdog (lost)
• Dec. 12 — Beat Merrimack 81-49 as a 20-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 18 — Beat Notre Dame 64-56 as a 4.5-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 22 — Beat Northern Kentucky 79-61 as a 17-point favorite (won)

The opening line seems surprisingly low to me because Penn State hasn't done anything to impress me yet this year. The Nittany Lions lost both Big Ten games by double digits, and have no impressive wins otherwise.

Here are the Kenpom ratings of the five teams they've beaten: Youngstown State (230), St. Francis-Brooklyn (334), Cornell (225), Oregon State (141), Wagner (117).

And what might be most important, Penn State hasn't played a game in 22 days. They had to cancel two games themselves because of COVID issues inside their own program, and then their game last Wednesday had to be cancelled because of issues inside the Delaware State program.

There's bound to be some rust, right?

The Nittany Lions are just 3-7 against the spread all season, and are just 2-3 in covering the spread in their five wins. They are just 1-5 vs. the spread in their six home games at the Bryce Jordan Center, which was built in 1995 and holds 15,261 fans.

Here's what Penn State has done so far this season: 

• Nov. 10 — Beat Youngstown State 75-59 as a 17.5-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 15 — Lost at Massachusetts 81-56 as a 4-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 18 — Beat St. Francis-Brooklyn 74-59 as a 19-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 22 — Beat Cornell 85-74 as a 16-point favorite (lost)
• Nov. 26 — Lost to LSU 63-58 in OT in the Emerald Coast Classic in Destin, Fla., as an 8-point underdog (won)
• Nov. 27 — Beat Oregon State 60-45 in Destin, Fla., as a 1-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 1 — Lost to Miami 63-58 in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge as a 3-point favorite (lost)
• Dec. 5 — Lost to Ohio State 76-64 as a 5-point underdog (lost)
• Dec. 8 — Beat Wagner 74-54 as a 7-point favorite (won)
• Dec. 11 — Lost at Michigan State 80-64 as a 10-point underdog (lost) 

Numbers don't lie, do they?

Relates stories on Indiana basketball

• HOW TO WATCH: Here's everything you need to know in how to watch Indiana's game with Penn State on Sunday, with game time and TFV information, starting lineups, coaching bios and some great newsy nuggets. Must read! CLICK HERE
• JACKSON-DAVIS HEAVY LOAD: The Big Ten season is starting back up and now the games simply mean more. Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis knows that all too well, and he's ready to play as many minutes as Mike Woodson needs. CLICK HERE
• TOM BREW COLUMN: Will Indiana's soft nonconference schedule hurt them down the road? We probably won't know that for sure until March. CLICK HERE
• INDIANA GAME CANCELLED: Because of COVID-19 issues inside the UNC Asheville program, Indiana's game with them Wednesday night has been cancelled. CLICK HERE
• WOODSON EYES BIG TEN TITLE: Indiana coach Mike Woodson said on his radio show Monday night that the Hoosiers ''have as good a chance as anybody'' to win the Big Ten title. CLICK HERE
• BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS (Vol. 1): Tom Brew's first Big Ten power rankings are out, with Purdue being the clear No. 1 in the league so far. Where is Indiana, who's 10-2 but doesn't really have signature wins. Here is the complete list, from 1-14 in the Big Ten, with records, and schedule for the first week in the Big Ten as it resumes. CLICK HERE