Jack's Take: Are Preseason Predictions Underestimating the Hoosiers?

After losing four starters and two key bench players, most national and Big Ten preseason predictions seem to be doubting the Hoosiers despite having a sixth-year point guard and two potential first-round NBA Draft picks.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – A scan of preseason predictions shows outside expectations for coach Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers are low in 2023-24.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi tabs Indiana as a No. 10 seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and one of the last eight teams in the field. No Hoosiers made the preseason All-Big Ten team or The Almanac’s top-100 players in college basketball list. CBS college basketball insider Jon Rothstein has Indiana outside his top-45 rankings.

Internally, though, Woodson refuses to drop the sky-high expectations he has set for the program every year since returning to his alma mater in 2021-22, despite losing four starters and two key bench players, including a consensus first-team All-American.

For Woodson, there’s no time to rebuild.

“My clock is ticking, Woodson said. “I want everything this year.”

“I've got to get them over the hump where we can hang another banner in here. I mean, that's all I think about, man.”

Reality likely falls somewhere in the middle. Barring major, unexpected leaps from multiple players, the Hoosiers are a clear step below Big Ten title favorites Purdue and Michigan State. But the middle of the conference has a lot of parity.

Besides Purdue and Michigan State, ranked third and fourth nationally by Rothstein, respectively, other Big Ten teams ranked ahead of Indiana include No. 20 Illinois, No. 25 Maryland, No. 33 Wisconsin, No. 34 Northwestern and No. 43 Rutgers.

Like Indiana, each of these teams enter the season with concerns. Illinois doesn’t have a true point guard. Maryland has unproven depth and will start two freshmen. Wisconsin missed the tournament and returns almost the exact same roster. Northwestern lost Chase Audige and Robbie Beran and has Only ever made the NCAA Tournament twice. Rutgers lost three of its top four players from last season.

Without Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jalen Hood-Schifino and others, questions also surround Indiana. Who delivers the 3-point shooting? Who’s the go-to scorer in clutch situations? Will Mackenzie Mgbako live up to the hype? Does Indiana have legitimate depth? The list goes on.

The Hoosiers may fall short of last season’s team, which earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament and tied for second in the Big Ten. But by season’s end, preseason predictions that put Wisconsin, Northwestern and Rutgers ahead of Indiana will be wrong.

And from a player perspective, Indiana has talent that seems to have been overlooked in The Almanac’s top-100 players list and the preseason All-Big Ten team.

Preseason All-Big Ten team 

(unanimous selections in ALL CAPS)

• TERRENCE SHANNON JR., ILLINOIS
• Julian Reese, Maryland
• JAHMIR YOUNG, MARYLAND
• Dawson Garcia, Minnesota
• A.J. Hoggard, Michigan State
• Tyson Walker, Michigan State
• Keisei Tominaga, Nebraska
• BOO BUIE, NORTHWESTERN
• ZACH EDEY, PURDUE
• Clifford Omoruyi, Rutgers

Start with Nebraska’s Keisei Tominaga, who made the 10-member preseason All-Big Ten team. He’s an incredibly fun player to watch, as he launches threes without hesitation and plays with a ton of energy. But if the preseason All-Big Ten team needs one tweak, it’s replacing Tominaga with Xavier Johnson. While Tominaga may have a slight edge as a scorer, he doesn’t carry greater overall value than Johnson.

Last year, Tominaga started 14 of 32 games, averaged 13.1 points, shot 40% on 165 3-point attempts and played 25.1 minutes per game on a Nebraska team that went 16-16 overall and 9-11 in Big Ten Play. He shoots well and shoots often, which is undoubtedly one of the most helpful skills in the sport. But his value is almost exclusively limited to that. Tominaga is nowhere near as versatile as Johnson, and he’s a below-average defender.

Johnson has averaged 13 points per game in 126 starts across five combined seasons at Pittsburgh and Indiana. His straight-line speed and driving ability unlocks and enhances all of his teammates, seen through his five assists per game, which dwarf Tominaga’s 0.7.

The Nebraska guard’s calling card is his 3-point shooting, and he has the nod there, but Johnson has shot an efficient 38 percent from three on fewer attempts in two seasons with the Hoosiers. I’d be willing to give up the slight offensive dropoff to have Johnson running the point with a clear advantage as a passer and defender.

Creating a top-100 players list in all of college basketball is bound to result in disagreements, and there are a few rankings that could end up looking bad by the end of the year. Instead of nitpicking the entire list, here’s who made it from the Big Ten.

Big Ten in The Almanac’s top-100 players list

• 1. Zach Edey, Purdue
• 10. Tyson Walker, Michigan State
• 23. Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois
• 33. Boo Buie, Northwestern
• 35. Jahmir Young, Maryland
• 40. Ace Baldwin, Penn State
• 42. AJ Hoggard, Michigan State
• 46. Coleman Hawkins, Illinois
• 49. Olivier Nkamhoua, Michigan
• 89. Payton Sandfort, Iowa
• 100. Fletcher Loyer, Purdue

This includes four players who were left off the preseason All-Big Ten team, but still no Hoosiers. Sandfort and Loyer are the two most egregious selections, as an argument can be made for Indiana’s entire potential starting five – Johnson, Trey Galloway, Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware – deserving a spot over these two. Both Loyer and Sandfort would have a tough time cracking Indiana’s starting backcourt and don’t have the ceiling of Ware, Mgbako or Reneau.

In two victories, Galloway was a more impactful player than Loyer, who shot 33.3 percent with five turnovers against Indiana. Sandfort had a solid year, scoring 10.3 points per game on 34.3 percent 3-point shooting, but he was the fourth or fifth option on a 19-14 Iowa team.

With good first seasons at Indiana, Mgbako and Ware are in line to become first-round 2024 NBA Draft picks, and Reneau, a former top-40 recruit, is a prime breakout candidate. The reason they’re not included in these projections, though, is likely because their current value is based on potential, not past production. These Hoosiers may not be considered top-100 players now, but don’t be surprised if they play their way into it by the end of the year. And for Johnson, many wonder how he’ll recover from season-ending foot surgery. Galloway’s stats don’t jump off the page, as his impact can be difficult to quantify.

These preseason rankings and predictions ultimately mean nothing and are used for the simple purpose of driving conversation. Obviously, what matters most is what happens on the court. Last year, Indiana was the favorite to win the Big Ten title and didn’t live up to expectations. There’s always pressure at a place like Indiana, but flying under the national radar could be a good thing.

If not motivated enough already by Woodson’s standards, the Hoosiers have been given plenty of bulletin board material.

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