Three Key Factors in Indiana's Matchup Against Northwestern Sunday

Indiana is back in action Sunday against Northwestern at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Here are three key factors that will help determine the game's outcome.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana has had more than a week to prepare for an important home game against Northwestern at 3 p.m. ET Sunday.

The Hoosiers are coming off a 79-59 loss at No. 2 Purdue on Feb. 10 and have lost five of their last seven games, dropping to 14-10 overall and 6-7 in the Big Ten. 

Northwestern is on a bit of a slide, too, with losses in three of its last five games and most recently losing 63-60 at Rutgers on Thursday. Though they're tied for fourth in the Big Ten at 17-8 overall and 8-6 in conference play, the Wildcats have not won a road game since Jan. 10 at Penn State.

Sunday's game is also a chance for Indiana coach Mike Woodson to check one final box across three seasons in Big Ten play. He has an 0-3 record against Northwestern, the only conference opponent he has yet to beat. The Hoosiers lost at Northwestern in the 2021-22 season, when Woodson suspended five players before the game. Indiana lost both games last season, 84-83 at home and 64-62 at Northwestern on a last-second floater from Boo Buie. 

Searching for his first win against Northwestern, here are three key factors for Woodson's Hoosiers on Sunday at Assembly Hall.

Who stops Buie?

A first-team All-Big Ten favorite and one of 30 Naismith Trophy midseason nominees, Boo Buie saved his best season for last at Northwestern. Now a fifth-year senior, the 6-foot-2 point guard is averaging career-highs with 19.2 points, 5.2 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. His 3-point shooting is up nearly 10% from last season to 41.7% on 5.8 attempts per game. His assist rate is up and his turnover rate is down, making him one of the best point guards in college basketball. Buie already plays 36.6 minutes per game and attempts about three more shots per game than any of his teammates, but he could begin to take even more ownership of Northwestern's offense now that starting guard Ty Berry is out for the season with a torn meniscus. 

Indiana guards Trey Galloway and Gabe Cupps will likely spend the most time defending Buie, assuming Xavier Johnson remains out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Galloway and Cupps are usually aggressive on-ball defenders, but they had a tough time staying in front of Braden Smith and handling Purdue's pick-and-roll game in a 20-point loss on Feb. 10. With a week off, Indiana needs a game plan focused on making every shot difficult for Buie, and that starts with Galloway and Cupps on the perimeter.

Reneau, Ware handling physicality

Indiana looks inside to leading scorers Malik Reneau (16.0 ppg) and Kel'el Ware (14.6 ppg) on most possessions, and they must be ready for Northwestern's pressure on Sunday. Northwestern is known for physical interior defense, especially against talented forwards and centers like Reneau and Ware. Though they aren't tasked with scoring often, Northwestern bigs Matthew Nicholson, Blake Preston, Luke Hunger and Nick Martinelli play an important role in the Wildcats' defense. They aren't afraid to foul, either. Against Purdue, those four players constantly swarmed Zach Edey and combined for 17 fouls, and three of them fouled out. 

It wouldn't be surprising to see Northwestern double-team and Reneau and Ware as much as possible, forcing them to kick the ball outside or commit turnovers. Reneau has had turnover issues, averaging a team-high 2.7 per game. When this pressure comes, he and Ware can't shy away. Physicality could make free throw shooting a critical factor in Sunday's game. Northwestern ranks 331st in the nation in opponent free throw rate, meaning they frequently send opponents to the line. The Hoosiers rank 18th in the nation in free throw attempt rate, but they haven't taken full advantage of that, shooting just 66.4% from the free throw line, which ranks 328th nationally.

3-point disparity

Indiana and Northwestern are on opposite ends of the 3-point shooting spectrum. The Hoosiers rank 12th in the Big Ten and 224th nationally, shooting 32.8% on 3-point attempts. At 39.4%, the Wildcats rank second in the Big Ten and sixth nationally. Indiana attempts 15.5 3-pointers per game, and Northwestern takes 21.4.

Berry's injury adds a wrinkle, as he was Northwestern's leading 3-point shooter from a percentage standpoint at 43.3%. In two full games without Berry, Northwestern made six 3-pointers against Penn State and eight in its loss at Rutgers on Thursday, shooting a combined 37.8%. That's a noticeable drop off from the Wildcats previous six games, when they made at least 10 3-pointers in each contest and shot a combined 67-for-143, or 46.9%. Even without Berry, Northwestern has plenty of capable shooters. Buie, Ryan Langborg, Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli all shoot between 34.2% and 41.7% from beyond the arc. Northwestern will need to knock down some outside shots without arguably its best shooter, and Indiana could use a shooting boost from Anthony Leal and CJ Gunn off the bench.

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