Breaking Down Mackenzie Mgbako's Draft Stock With NBA Draft Analyst Corey Tulaba

Mackenzie Mgbako came to Indiana with projections that he might be a one-and-done lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Though he has improved throughout the year and averages 10.9 points, Mgbako has fallen off most draft boards. HoosiersNow.com talked with NBA draft analyst Corey Tulaba about Mgbako's professional prospects.

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Mackenzie Mgbako's freshman season at Indiana has come with flashes of NBA potential mixed with signs that there's still plenty of room to grow.

Mgbako came to Indiana as the No. 8 player in the nation, per the 247Sports Composite rankings. He was originally committed to Duke, but later decommitted and flipped to Indiana on May 12. Before playing a game for the Hoosiers, Mgbako was projected to be a one-and-done lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

His freshman season started out slow, scoring four points or fewer in four of his first five games and shooting just 32% from the field. Once Mgbako settled into the college game, he began to excel offensively. He scored 10-plus points in each of the next eight games, including two Big Ten wins over Maryland and Michigan and a 14-point effort against Kansas.

As conference play ramped up, Mgbako became more of a focal point of Indiana's offense. Since Dec. 21, he's made 23-of-61 3-point attempts, or 37.7%. Through those ups and downs, Mgbako is now averaging 10.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.2 blocks per game while shooting 38.5% from the field, 31.3% from 3-point range and 85.1% at the free throw line. 

Indiana Hoosiers forward Mackenzie Mgbako (21) shoots the ball while Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) defends in the first half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Mgbako's freshman season has raised the question of whether he'll leave for the NBA after one season with the Hoosiers or return to college for his sophomore year. 

For perspective on Mgbako's college and NBA outlook, HoosiersNow.com talked exclusively with NBA Draft analyst Corey Tulaba of No Ceilings. Tulaba's history watching Mgbako play includes his time at Roselle Catholic High School in New Jersey, the Nike Hoop Summit and on TV. He also attended two Indiana games this season against Louisville and Rutgers.

One of his first comments on Mgbako was indicative of the learning lessons and growth he's gone through as a freshman under Mike Woodson.

"I think Mackenzie is really raw as far as being a student of the game, but I think he’s somebody that does soak up the coaching," Tulaba said. "I saw that first hand watching him practice. He’d be drilling stuff out then it would come time to scrimmage, and he would use what he learned in the scrimmages."

Mgbako has taken on a larger role as his freshman season has gone on, attempting at least 10 shots from the field in eight of the last nine games after doing so just twice in his first 15 games. This higher usage stems mostly from more 2-point attempts, a sign of Mgbako being more assertive and aggressive in looking for his shot. 

Though Mgbako is shooting just 31.3% on 3-pointers this season, he leads Indiana in both attempts, 99, and makes, 31. At 6-foot-8, Mgbako's 3-point shooting creates NBA intrigue, though he'll have to become more consistent. Tulaba sees potential for more in his offensive game, too.

"He’s one of those guys that you can see the frame, and he can really shoot it," Tulaba said. "I think he has more as a creator in his game than he’s showing at Indiana, where it feels like more of the time he’s kind of a spot-up guy."

Mgbako's most noticeable struggles this season have come on the defensive end, leading to Woodson sitting the 6-foot-8 freshman down the stretch of a few early nonconference games. He's gotten better on that end throughout the season, but it remains a developmental focus for Woodson.

"We still gotta get Mack better from a defensive standpoint because I think he got lost a few times, and that's not to knock on him," Woodson said after Indiana's 74-68 win over Iowa on Jan. 30. "That kid's come a long way since we started with him, and I just gotta help him more."

Tulaba said he and his team at No Ceilings were concerned with Mgbako's defense entering college because there were core tenets of half court man-to-man defense Mgbako did not have down during his high school days. Playing for Roselle Catholic, Tulaba thought defense was less of a concern because Mgbako had such a big physical advantage against most opponents and could make up for a lack of quick processing with his size and athleticism. 

Tulaba often notices that some high school players don't focus on defense as much because their natural abilities allow them to dominate, even without understanding the nuances of defense. Tulaba pointed to defense as being the biggest adjustment for Mgbako in college, as well as the part of the reason he thinks Mgbako should stay in college for another season.

"I think the defensive side of the ball, it takes a while to learn it and some guys never do," Tulaba said. "If that’s the case with Mackenzie, he’s got to be a guy that can shoot 50/40/80 to kind of make up for that fact. But I do think he puts the effort in to try, and if that’s the case, to try to get better on that end, then I think there’s an opportunity for him to get better." 

"But as it is, he’s a big dude who moves well and is kind of athletic. He should be at the minimum being aggressive in the passing lanes, or blocking shots at the rim. That kind of thing being as infrequent as it is, is a pretty big red flag for a guy that’s probably going to be tasked with playing power forward in the NBA. He’s got a long way to go on that end.”

Indiana Head Coach Mike Woodson talks with Mackenzie Mgbako (21) during the second half of the Indiana versus Ohio State men's basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024 :: Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

As for Mgbako's NBA Draft stock, he was not one of the top-60 players included the most recent mock draft by No Ceilings. And broadly, he's fallen off most draft boards at this point. 

Tulaba believes if Mgbako showed more on the defensive end, NBA teams would buy into his game from a raw skills perspective at 6-foot-8, despite his shooting inefficiencies this season. 

Players are allowed to declare for the NBA Draft and receive feedback from teams before deciding whether they want to return to college or go pro. Tulaba sees this as a possible path for Mgbako, who may only be a late second-round pick or undrafted free agent with the possibility of playing in the G-League as a rookie, if he were to leave for the NBA this year.

"He’s a sneaky guy that it wouldn’t even shock me if he tested the waters a little bit and got some feedback," Tulaba said. "I think he’ll probably return from another year, but he’s a guy that NBA teams are very familiar with and because of his frame and the fact that he can shoot it. It wouldn’t shock me if he was a guy that ultimately was like, ‘I’m going to come out this year.’ I think there’s definitely a chance with him [to get drafted]. If he was maybe a couple inches shorter, I would say ‘Eh, I don’t know.’"

"Ultimately, I think if a team is like, ‘He’s a raw-ball play, we’ll get him in the G-league,’ and that’s the path he wants to take, like, ‘I just want to get to the league.’ Then I think a team would take him at a certain part of the draft. I think he would get drafted ... It’s like, does he want to be drafted in the second round? Or does he want to come back and maybe show that he could potentially be a top-20 pick next year? 

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