Three Things To Watch When Indiana Plays UConn in Empire Classic

Three things to keep an eye on during Sunday's Indiana versus UConn game, include the health of Indiana point guard Xavier Johnson, the Hoosiers' 3-point shooting and 3-point defense, and whether UConn's offensive rebounding success continues.

NEW YORK – Indiana and UConn meet Sunday in the Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden.

Tipoff between the 3-0 teams is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN and will be followed by Texas versus Louisville. 

Here are three things to watch with the Hoosiers and Huskies.

Johnson's health, Castle's replacements

Indiana senior point guard Xavier Johnson seemed to be in a lot of pain late in Thursday’s game against Wright State after going for a steal. It looked like he was grabbing his left ankle or foot, but he was able to walk off the court under his own power. Indiana coach Mike Woodson didn’t have a postgame update on Johnson, who’ll have just two days off between games.

Johnson missed all but 11 games last year with a broken foot, and Indiana clearly missed his presence in several games. Johnson is third on the team in scoring this season, averaging 14 points through three games. If he can’t play Sunday, Indiana will only have four healthy scholarship guards: Trey Galloway, Gabe Cupps, CJ Gunn and Anthony Leal. Galloway is a multi-year starter, but he’s not a point guard. Cupps would likely step into Johnson’s role, a big ask for a freshman, though he’s adjusted well to the college game early on. Indiana is hoping for a big sophomore jump from the 6-foot-6 Gunn, but Leal hasn’t played much during his four seasons as a Hoosier.

UConn guard Stephon Castle recently underwent what coach Dan Hurley called “a very minor procedure” for knee injury, which will keep him out for two-to-four weeks. At 6-foot-6 out of Covington, Ga., Castle was the ninth-ranked player in the class of 2023. He scored 12 points in his college debut against Northern Arizona, then scored 17 points with eight rebounds and five assists against Stonehill College. He did not play in UConn’s third game against Mississippi Valley State. Without Castle, the Huskies will more heavily lean on starting guards Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer, and they’ll need more out of Solomon Ball, Hassan Diarra, Jaylin Stewart and Jayden Ross.

IU's 3-point shooting, 3-point defense

Perhaps the most glaring statistical difference between UConn and Indiana comes from the 3-point line. UConn has made 28-of-84 3-point attempts this year, good for 33.3%, while Indiana hasn’t even attempted or made half as many. The Hoosiers are 11-for-40 from beyond the arc this year, a below-average 27.5%. Johnson leads the team with 4-for-8 3-point shooting, and his potential absence would hurt the Hoosiers offensively and defensively.

The Hoosiers haven’t shot the three well or often this season, and they haven’t defended it well, either. Opponents are 37-for-98 from 3-point range against Indiana, good for 37.8%. Woodson has been frustrated with Indiana’s defensive rotations, which have allowed too many open looks. Those must be better Sunday against UConn.

Even without Castle, the Huskies have a variety of dangerous shooters. After shooting 43.4% on 4.9 3-point attempts per game last season at Rutgers, Cam Spencer is off to an 11-for-24 start with his new team. Alex Karaban shot 40.2% last season, and his versatility could be a tough cover for Malik Reneau and other Indiana power forwards. Newton is also capable at 36.6% last year.

UConn's offensive rebounding

The Huskies currently rank second in the nation with a 47.4 offensive rebounding percentage. UConn has enough offensive talent already, and Indiana cannot afford to give them second chances. 

Indiana ranks 284th in the nation, per Kenpom, with a 24.7 offensive rebounding percentage, and opponents are grabbing offensive rebounds at a 32.5% rate. 

Indiana had a noticeable height advantage, but Wright State out-rebounded the Hoosiers 40-37 on Thursday, including 13-7 on the offensive glass. Indiana center Kel’el Ware grabbed 12 rebounds and forward Malik Reneau had eight, but Woodson was upset by the lack of rebounding from Indiana’s guards and wings. Starting guards Johnson and Galloway only had one rebound each.

The challenge becomes even greater on Sunday against UConn, a team that succeeds on the offensive glass. We'll see how these numbers pan out against better competition, as Indiana and UConn are 308th and 360th, respectively, in strength of schedule.

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