My Two Cents: Nonconference Schedule Complete, Hoosiers Are What We Thought They Were

Indiana has won all the nonconference games it was supposed to, but the Hoosiers also lost all of their big early-season games. Now that the Big Ten season is back, just how good are they — and how good can they be? They're a flawed team, and we've seen plenty of that. But we've seen good things, too.

Tom Brew | Dec 30, 2023

My Two Cents: Nonconference Schedule Complete, Hoosiers Are What We Thought They Were /

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Indiana Hoosiers

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — When all the preseason college basketball rankings came out two months ago and Indiana checked in around No. 50, my first reaction was that the rankings were too low. I thought the Hoosiers — even with all sorts of new faces — were better than that.

Fast forward to Saturday, where the clock is ticking down on 2023, and the nonconference season is now complete after Indiana's 100-87 victory over Kennesaw State at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers are 10-3 so far, winning all the games they were supposed to, but losing all of their big-time early-season showdowns with Connecticut, Auburn and Kansas.

They've also struggled to win ''all those games they were supposed to.'' Friday night was another perfect example of that, where the Hoosiers trailed Kennesaw State — a team ranked in the low 200s — by four with 13 minutes to go. It took a 21-3 run to flip the script, and one good run was enough to get the win. It was the same script in comeback wins against mid-major lightweights Florida Gulf Coast, Army, Wright State and Morehead State, too. One good run each night has been enough.

So where do we stand now? I mean, really, where are we with this team?

Indiana coach Mike Woodson was exactly right Friday night when he said ''we won the game'' when asked about some of the tough stretches. And he's exactly right. Even though Indiana has looked downright awful for long stretches in many of these nonconferences games, they've still always found a way to win. They did it in their two Big Ten games, too, beating Maryland and Michigan to get a leg up on league play, which resumes Jan. 3 at Nebraska. The Hoosiers, at present, are alone at the top of the conference with a 2-0 record.

Winning does count for something. It really does. When you're a preseason top-50 — they were actually No. 49 in the Kenpom.com preaseason rankings — you're just a maybe to make the NCAA Tournament. You need to make an impression.

And they haven't really done that yet, have they?

The three losses weren't unexpected, of course, and it would have helped the resume a lot if they could have stolen one — or two. Points spreads aren't the be all end all to decide anything, but UConn (12.5), Auburn (6.5) and Kansas (7.5) were all big favorites. They were all supposed to win easily. The only game Indiana was competitive in was the Kansas showdown at Assembly Hall on Dec. 16. They led most of the game, only to let it slip away in the final minutes.

The victories so far haven't really turned many heads, outside of the two Big Ten wins. They pounded a Maryland team that's 9-4 now and just won at UCLA, and they won at Michigan. The Wolverines have some issues — they lost at home to McNeese Friday night and are just 6-7 — but every road win in the Big Ten is valuable. To be 2-0 in the league heading into the New Year is a good thing.

You all know me well enough over the past five years that I like to take a positive spin on things. Scoring 100 points and beating Kennesaw by 13 is a good thing, and I'm happy with that win. There were a lot of things they did poorly — giving up 17 three-pointers and committing 18 turnovers — but a win is a win.

Friday night social media was ridiculous, for all the whining and complaining about the game. Many ''fans'' didn't even bring up the win, just focused on the negative.

I just don't like going there.

One of the things that most people get wrong is presuming that past results dictate future outcomes. That's so not true. Not even close. Trends, yes, but not actual determinations.

What we do know about this team is that they are capable of doing a lot of big things. Can they make the NCAA Tournament? Of course they can. Contend for a Big Ten title? That's a reach, probably, but I'm not going to rule anything out. We've seen great play in long stretches, just not for 40 minutes at a time. But we can say that about most every team around the country.

We've seen the last two games, for instance, that sophomore power forward Malik. Reneau can be a stud. He had a career-high 25 points last Thursday against North Alabama — and the record lasted one game. He had 34 Friday night, the most points scored by a Hoosier in Assembly Hall since Trayce Jackson-Davis went for 43 against Marshall two years ago.

The Hoosiers can ride him in Big Ten play.

Kel'el Ware didn't play Friday night due to illness, but he's done a lot of good things, too. He's been Indiana's leading scorer all season until Reneau passed him Friday. He's not your traditional 7-foot big man, but he can take over games as well. He's a three-point threat — shooting 37.5 percent — and has had four games already with 12 rebounds or more.

But the sophomore who transferred to Indiana after a year at Oregon also was basically a no-show in the three losses. He was 2-for-10 shooting against UConn, 2-for-8 against Auburn and 3-for-12 against Kansas. That's 7-for-30, just 23.3 percent from the floor.

That won't be good enough in Big Ten play. Not even close.

But, as I said earlier, past performance makes no guarantees. He actually played very well in both Big Ten wins, scoring 18 against Maryland and 13 against Michigan, with a combined 22 rebounds. Indiana will need more of that.

What the Hoosiers will need more of, for sure, is the best of Mackenzie Mgbako for a full 40 minutes. The five-star freshman small forward started slow, especially with his perimeter shooting, but it's starting to come. He's hit two or more threes in four of the past five games, and made 4-of-5 threes Friday night, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds in just 14 minutes.

He's still a massive defensive liability, and that's a problem. He leaves perimeter shooters for no good reason far too often, and has been slow to pick up the scheme. But he's an enormous talent, and we know that. We see it in flashes, and we need to see more. He's certainly capable, and I can see a Jalen Hood-Schifino-like run through the Big Ten, with some huge games.

Indiana will chase an NCAA bid by dominating up front. It's their strength, without question, and they even get good things off the bench in moments from Anthony Walker, Payton Sparks and Kaleb Banks. They all need to be more consistent through league play.

A winning record in the Big Ten — going 11-9 at worst — would lock up an NCAA bid. If they're going to get there — and I think it's a real possibility because the Big Ten is really down this year — they'll need quality guard play every night, too.

Indiana has played seven games in a row now without veteran point guard Xavier Johnson, who's dealing with a foot/ankle injury. He's been back on the floor at practice, and everyone is hoping he'll be back next week when Big Ten play kicks in.

They need him.

Senior Trey Galloway has been mostly good, and was great against Kansas when he scored a career-high 28 points. Freshman Gabe Cupps has started in Johnson's absence, and he's been OK. He guards well, mostly, but also lets shooters get free too often. He also doesn't look for his shot enough, and that needs to change. When he's open, shoot it. He's only scored 25 points TOTAL in those seven games. It's not enough.

Indiana hasn't gotten much off the bench at the guard spots, which is why they really need Johnson's minutes. CJ Gunn has been inconsistent, which has given Anthony Leal a shot at more minutes, and he's responded.

Watching how the guards play, especially these first few weeks, will be big. Woodson said that Johnson is back on the court doing individual work, but not any team activities. Hopefully that comes soon. Real soon.

These first four games in the Big Ten will give us a quick snapshot of what the Hoosiers might be capable of. They are at Nebraska on Jan. 3, home against Ohio State on Jan. 6, at Rutgers on Jan. 9 and home to Minnesota on Jan. 12.

They have a chance to win all four of those games. They also ... well, you know.

The optimist in me says tip it up and let's see how it goes. They are what we thought they were, a team with talent capable of playing well in long stretches. But they also have a lot of flaws as well, which we already know, too.

Can the good outweigh the bad? That's what we'll wait to see.

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