Big Ten Football: Illinois vs Purdue Game Preview, Prediction

Coach Bret Bielema and the Illinois Fighting Illini are traveling to West Lafayette this Saturday to take on coach Ryan Walters and the Purdue Boilermakers. Both Big Ten West football teams have gotten off to disappointing starts in the 2023 season, and are in major need of a win to turn things around.

Daniel Olinger | Sep 29, 2023

Big Ten Football: Illinois vs Purdue Game Preview, Prediction /

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Purdue and Illinois finished atop the Big Ten West in 2022, a rare feat for both schools.

However, their chances at repeating that feat in 2023 look grim. Coach Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini are off to a 2-2 start, with both wins being one-score victories over Group of Five opponents.

Coach Ryan Walters and the Boilermakers, meanwhile, kicked off the post-Jeff Brohm era in West Lafayette in about as rough a fashion as one could hope. Purdue lost to Fresno State 39-35 in its season opener, and after back-to-back home losses against Syracuse and Wisconsin, the defending West champs sit at 1-3.

Given, Fresno State is one of the very best teams in the Group of Five, Syracuse is undefeated and Wisconsin is the favorite to win the West in 2023. Walters and Purdue have faced about as difficult a schedule as possible through the first month of the season.

Similarly for Illinois, its two losses came against undefeated opponents in Kansas and Penn State. The Jayhawks have kept their momentum from the 2022 season rolling and have a chance to contend for the Big 12 title should they beat No. 3 Texas this Saturday, and Penn State itself is ranked No. 6 in the country entering Week 5.

Illinois and Purdue might have five combined losses entering Week 5, but they're five losses to well-above average opponents. All of the goals each squad has for its 2023 season are still on the table — if they win this Saturday in West Lafayette.

Purdue hosts the Illinois Fighting Illini in Week 5 of the 2023 college football season. The game will be played on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, and will be broadcast exclusively on Peacock. It's also the 2023 homecoming game for the Boilermakers.

FanDuel lists Purdue as a 1.5 point favorite in the game, and the over/under for the game is listed at 53.5 points.

Given that Purdue is the home team and receiving less than two points, it tells you what the betting experts think of this game — these teams are just about dead even.

Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, however, have Illinois as a significant favorite entering the game. The Fighting Illini are rated as the 52nd-best team in the country by SP+, while the Boilermakers are all the way down at 77th.

For Illinois, the case for them winning starts and ends with Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton and Keith Randolph. They're two of the best defensive lineman in the entire country, and can keep the Illini close with anyone. It's how Bielema's team only trailed Penn State 16-7 very late into the third quarter. The interior pressure Newton and Randolph generate can easily throw off an opposing team's rhythm. It was the worst offensive game Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions have played to date.

Watch Johnny Newton (No. 4 on Illinois) completely blow up Penn State's leverage on this 3rd and Goal HB Toss by just forcing himself into the backfield pic.twitter.com/prI267Utwp
— Dan Olinger (@dan_olinger) September 29, 2023

Johnny Newton (Illinois DT) is just an absolute monster

First round NFL draft pick with a bullet pic.twitter.com/Haa0ltJOwG
— Dan Olinger (@dan_olinger) September 29, 2023

Of course, Illinois lost that game to Penn State largely thanks to four interceptions from quarterback Luke Altmyer. The Ole Miss transfer has had his shining moments under center for the Illini — namely his fourth down throw that saved the game against Toledo, and his 72-yard touchdown run vs Kansas — but he can be quite poor in his discernment. So far through four games, Altmyer has thrown four touchdowns to seven interceptions.

However, he's also accounted for more than 1,000 total yards of offense. On the whole, Illinois has to live and die on the Altmyer roller coaster. He's willing to take chances and make big plays, but he also strikes out with catastrophic mistakes a fair bit.

Illinois's defense has severe problems in its back seven, but Purdue doesn't even have the strength that Illinois does in its devastating front. The Boilermakers gave up five touchdowns in each of their three losses this season, and have been picked apart both on the ground and through the air.

And while Purdue is missing the elite offensive spark brought by having Brohm as a play caller and Aidan O'Connell as its quarterback, the Boilermakers' scoring unit has had its moments. Quarterback Hudson Card has thrown for 1,027 yards in four games and completed nearly 63 percent of his passes. Pair his capability with running back Devin "Crazy Legs" Mockobee (who is admittedly off to a slow start in 2023) and two explosive wide receivers in Deion Burks and Abdur-Rahman Yaseen, and Purdue can put up some points on just about anyone.

Ultimately, the game between Illinois and Purdue boils down to this:

Illinois can't consistently move the ball. But Altmyer takes enough deep shots that the Illini probably break a few big touchdowns against a poor Purdue defense.
Purdue occasionally looks like a very good offense, but it's not an overpowering unit. Illinois's defense isn't perfect, but with Newton and Randolph, coach Bielema's team should always have the two best players on the field.
Can Purdue's offensive line avoid getting dismantled by the Illinois front? If so, Card can probably outpace Altmyer and keep the Boilermakers' offense on schedule in a shootout victory.
But if Newton and Randolph can dominate the Purdue offensive line, the Boilermakers will find themselves in a slower game state that favors Illinois and its all-or-nothing offense.

I personally believe that Newton and Randolph are going to be too much to be contained, and that Illinois will leave West Lafayette with a 3-2 record as the second half of the season draws near.

Prediction: Illinois 30, Purdue 24

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