Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys for Indiana Against Maryland
Indiana travels to Maryland for its first true road game of the season.
Coach Tom Allen and the Hoosiers are looking to bounce back from a rough outing against Akron last week, when they escaped with a 29-27 win in four overtimes.
On the other sideline, the Terrapins aim to keep their undefeated season alive. Maryland has defeated Towson, Charlotte, Virginia and Michigan State, and won all four games by at least 18 points. They enter Saturday's contest as double-digit favorites.
Here are three keys to the game for Indiana, plus a score prediction at the bottom.
Throw the ball to Jaylin Lucas
The next step in Jaylin Lucas' development as a sophomore was lining up as a slot receiver after primarily playing running back and kick returner as a freshman in 2022. He shined in that role in Week 3 against Louisville, hauling in 10 receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Tayven Jackson found him in a variety of ways, including quick screens and down-field shots.
But the following week against Akron, Lucas didn't record a single catch or target. Indiana offensive coordinator Walt Bell's explanation for not using Lucas in the pass game was that Akron defenders essentially shadowed him, and that Lucas played more running back than receiver because Indiana needed him in the backfield with Josh Henderson out, "But as we get the other backs up to speed, [Lucas will] be all over the place coming up this next week," Bell said Monday.
Allen said Thursday that Lucas' role in the passing game against Louisville is more in line with what he wants to see moving forward. Through four games, Indiana's offense ties for 11th in the Big Ten in points per game (21.8) and ranks 12th in yards per game (337.5). Highlighting Lucas' impressive speed and agility in the passing game can help improve those numbers, and it should be a major focus Saturday against Maryland.
"Obviously there are times when, based on the reads and the reactions to the defense, you get a chance to get those and sometimes you don't," Allen said of Lucas' involvement as a receiver. "But at the same time, to me, he's a guy when you just look at his skillset, you want him to be able to have the ball in his hand with some green grass around him and an opportunity to make that guy miss in space."
Offensive line gets back on track
Under new coach Bob Bostad, the Indiana offensive line showed marked improvements the first three weeks. It wasn't a dominant unit, but the strides were noticeable compared to the last few seasons. Tayven Jackson was sacked just one time in those games, and the line held its own against an Ohio State defense loaded with NFL talent.
But against Akron, the offensive line took a concerning step back. Jackson faced pressure throughout the game, ultimately being sacked three times. The run game has struggled all year, and it was especially stagnant against Akron, averaging 2.7 yards per carry on 34 attempts. To make matters worse, Indiana failed to score on four separate plays from inside the two-yard line against Akron.
Maryland's defensive front is solid, but nothing special. In order for Indiana to have any chance in this game, it needs a far better performance from the offensive line compared to last week.
Break out the WWE takeaway belt
Perhaps the only positive aspect of Indiana's win over Akron was the defense producing three takeaways. Sophomore safety Phillip Dunnam started things off with his third interception through four games, moving into a tie for first place in the Big Ten with Maryland's Tarheeb Still and Wisconsin's Ricardo Hallman. Senior safety Louis Moore followed suit with two interceptions, the second of which he returned for a touchdown that gave Indiana the lead late in the third quarter.
Indiana is facing a talented quarterback this week in Taulia Tagovailoa, the Big Ten leader in passing yards (1,112), passing touchdowns (8), total offense (1,165) and points responsible for (62). Behind Illinois' Luke Altmayer, who has thrown seven interceptions, Tagovailoa is one of eight Big Ten quarterbacks with three interceptions this year. Forcing Tagovailoa into mistakes like this starts with Indiana's improved defensive line creating pressure, allowing the secondary to continue its ball-hawking ways. Indiana needs to break out the WWE takeaway belt, gifted to the team by the McMahon family, at least twice in this game.
Indiana cornerback Nic Toomer poses with the WWE takeaway belt after his interception against Indiana State.
Indiana Athletics
Score prediction
Maryland 28, Indiana 13
Indiana should have the best defense Maryland has seen so far this year. That'll keep the game relatively close for two or three quarters, but it may not feel as close as the score indicates. After an abysmal performance at home against Akron, it's hard to have confidence in Indiana's offense moving the ball consistently on the road against a Big Ten opponent.
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