Indiana football: Since 1993, Hoosiers have NEVER been such a heavy Big Ten favorite
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana is a 27.5-point favorite over Rutgers on Saturday, and in historical records with The Gold Sheet in Las Vegas that date back to 1993, here's what we've learned:
That's never happened during all that time. Never.
Two things are at play here. Indiana, which hasn't been very good at football for most of the past 27 seasons, is better this year. And Rutgers, its opponent Saturday at Memorial Stadium, is epically bad.
Hence, the big point spread.
And the rarity. In fact, Indiana has been favored by a TOUCHDOWN or more only 17 times in the past 27 years in Big Ten games. It's rare when the Hoosiers are heavy favorites of seven points or more.
You would think being big favorites would guarantee a victory, but you may be surprised to learn that Indiana has also lost three of those games straight-up —losing to Minnesota in 2013 as an 8-point favorite, losing to Illinois in 1998 as a 14-point favorite, and losing to Northwestern in 1994 as a 10-point favorite.
So there are no guarantees.
Here's the breakdown of Indiana as a big favorite through the years:
Indiana as touchdown-plus favorite in Big Ten games since 1993
| Year | Opponent | Line | Result | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | Rutgers | minus-15 | Won 24-17 | No |
2017 | Illinois | minus-9 | Won 24-14 | Yes |
2017 | Rutgers | minus-11 | Won 41-0 | Yes |
2016 | Rutgers | minus-13 | Won 33-27 | No |
2016 | Purdue | minus-21 | Won 26-24 | No |
2015 | Purdue | minus-7 | Won 54-36 | Yes |
2013 | Minnesota | minus-8 | Lost 42-39 | No |
2013 | Illinois | minus-9 | Won 52-35 | Yes |
2013 | Purdue | minus-20.5 | Won 56-36 | No |
2007 | Minnesota | minus-13 | Won 40-20 | Yes |
2000 | Iowa | minus-14 | Won 45-33 | No |
1999 | Northwestern | minus-8 | Won 34-17 | Yes |
1998 | Illinois | minus-14 | Lost 31-16 | No |
1994 | Northwestern | minus-10 | Lost 20-7 | No |
1993 | Minnesota | minus-7 | Won 23-19 | No |
1993 | Northwestern | minus-8 | Won 24-0 | Yes |
1993 | Purdue | minus-13 | Won 24-17 | Yes |
If you're curious as to how well Indiana has done against the point spread in this games, you may also be surprised to learn that it's not very good. The Hoosiers are just 7-10 against the spread in those games.
Since Rutgers has come into the Big Ten in 2014, its been everyone's whipping boy, which had a lot to do with coach Chris Ash being fired two weeks ago. He won only three Big Ten games in there-plus years.
This is the fourth straight year that Indiana has been favored by at least 11 points or more against the Scarlet Knights. Indiana has won the previous three games, but the two games at Rutgers were close, a six-point margin in 2016 and a seven-point margin a year ago. The last home game was a rout, with Indiana winning 41-0 in 2017 as an 11-point favorite.
It's happened the most against Purdue, four times since 1993. In fact, if you want a sweat a little bit before Saturday's game, the largest point spread since 1993 was actually against Purdue in 2016. Indiana was a 21.5 point favorite and barely won, scoring a late touchdown to win 26-24.
Point spreads mean nothing to Indiana coach Tom Allen, nor should they. His only thought is of his team playing up to its potential and getting another win, whether they are a four-touchdown favorite or not.
"I think that the challenge is you've got to be a mature football team to understand it's a Big Ten opportunity for both teams,'' Allen said earlier in the week. "I've been in this league long enough to know those things are irrelevant.
"They've got a unique situation they're in right now, but we have no control over that. And all we can control is how we prepare. And I know that we're playing a Big Ten football team on Saturday. We'll have to be at our very best. That's the absolute truth.''
Allen even pounds home the point that there will be no looking ahead as Indiana reaches a critical point in its schedule. Rutgers, he said, is the sole focus this week.
"The schedule is what it is, good or bad. We don't control it, so you just adapt to it and adjust to it,'' he said. "There's definitely a good flow to it though (in the next four weeks before Indiana's next bye). You've got two home games, two away games.
"There's no doubt, we all see the schedule. Everybody can look at it. But it is solely focused on earmuffs and blinders — Rutgers, and that's it. That's all we see.''
Indiana has done well at home as a heavy favorite in its two nonconference games this season. The Hoosiers were a 36.5-point favorite against Eastern Illinois on Sept. 7 and won 52-0, and were a 27-point favorite against Connecticut on Sept. 21 and won 38-3.
